Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction for Saturday, May 16th, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Cincinnati Reds (23-21, 25-19 ATS, 27-16-1 O/U) meet the Cleveland Guardians (24-21, 25-20 ATS, 22-23 O/U) in the second of a three-game series on Saturday evening, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Reds are sending Chris Paddack to the mound. The Guardians will answer with Gavin Williams. The Reds won last year’s season series 5-1.
Can Williams record his sixth win of the season on Saturday? Keep reading to find out. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our MLB Picks!
Paddack Makes His Cincinnati Debut
Chris Paddack will make his Reds debut on Saturday. Paddack was claimed off waivers a few days ago. The veteran righty posted disastrous numbers with the Marlins this season. He squandered seven runs against the Phillies in his previous start and was dealt the loss. Paddack has recorded a 7.63 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP, accompanied by an 0-5 record in 30.2 innings of work on the season. He has picked up 27 strikeouts and has served six home runs. He has thrived in his career against Cleveland, posting a 2.41 ERA with an 0-1 record in 18.2 innings.
The Cincinnati Reds have been a streaky team this season. They were battling atop the division after the first month, but have been slumping in May. They had lost nine games in a row before a weak last weekend. They rebounded by winning two of three meetings against the Astros last weekend, but dropped two of three against the Nationals prior to this series. The Reds stand at 10-10 on the road.
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Elly De La Cruz has been solid, posting an .800 OPS in May. The young shortstop is having a decent season, bashing 10 homers with 29 RBIs. Spencer Steer was a tough out against the Cubs last year, posting 11 RBIs. The veteran outfielder has 14 RBIs and a .782 OPS on the season.
Sal Stewart is having a promising rookie season. The 22-year-old first baseman has clubbed 10 homers with 30 RBIs. Matt McClain has not been able to get it going, manning only 16 RBIs and a .665 OPS. Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to be one of the worst hitters in the game. The veteran third baseman is hitting .150 with three RBIs.
Cincinnati is averaging 4.32 runs per game, ranking them 15th. The pitching staff has issued a 4.60 ERA, placing them 26th in the big leagues.
Williams Roughed Up in Second Straight Outing
Gavin Williams will get the nod. Williams has been walloped in two straight outings. He was especially shaky in his recent outing, serving up five runs on 10 hits in six innings against Minnesota in a game Cleveland dropped. The young righty has been effective with the exception of his two outings this month and is sporting a 3.74 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, accompanied by a 5-3 record in 55.1 innings of work. He has issued 65 strikeouts and conceded eight home runs. This is the first meeting of his career against the Reds.
The Cleveland Guardians are standing atop the division despite being just three games above .500. The squad has won two straight series. They won two of three against Minnesota last weekend and had more success after a series win against the Angels this week. Cleveland continued its success on the mound in the sweep, keeping them to just six runs. The Guardians are 13-9 at home.
Chase DeLauter has been one of the best rookies, sporting a .306 average with 26 RBIs and an .879 OPS. He has driven in five runs this month. Jose Ramirez knocked in three runs against the Reds last season. The star third baseman has been decent, bashing six homers with 16 RBIs and a .706 OPS.
Steven Kwan has been kept in check. The veteran outfielder has a .500 OPS in May and only 9 RBIs and a .576 OPS on the season. Brayan Rocchio has been productive, amassing 22 RBIs and a .723 OPS. Daniel Schneemann has been one of Cleveland’s most consistent hitters, netting 18 RBIs and an .805 OPS
Cleveland is posting an average of 4.16 runs on the season, rating them 23rd. The pitching is a strength, recording a 3.80 ERA, placing them 11th.
Reds vs. Guardians Pick
Spread Pick for Reds vs. Guardians
- Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (5 units)
The Cincinnati Reds are playing better after a disastrous losing streak, winning three of their past five games. They had success against the Guardians last season, sporting a 5-1 record. The Cleveland Guardians are winning games, but it's been a rather easy schedule considering their past three series were against teams with a losing record.
Furthermore, Reds pitcher Chris Paddack has issued a tremendous 2.41 ERA in his career against Cleveland. Also, Cincinnati has a chance to have a big game at the plate against a struggling Gavin Williams. The righty is a quality pitcher but has hit a rough patch, surrendering five runs in two straight outings, including five runs against Minnesota.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Guardians
- Over 8.5 (5 units)
I expect plenty of scoring. Cincinnati has a potent offense that has scored 35 runs in its past five games entering Friday. Williams has surrendered 18 hits in his last 12 innings pitched.
In addition, the Reds' pitching has been a disaster. They have surrendered five or more runs in five of their past eight games. and stand near the bottom of the big leagues in most pitching categories. While Paddack should keep the Reds in this game, he squandered seven runs in his recent outing. The over is a convincing 6-2 in the Reds' past eight games.
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