Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday, May 3rd, 2026
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The Cincinnati Reds (20-12, 19-13 ATS, 20-11-1 O/U) and Pittsburgh Pirates (17-16, 18-15 ATS, 19-15 O/U) conclude a three-game divisional series on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. The Reds are sending Chase Burns to the mound. The Pirates will answer with Braxton Ashcraft. The Pirates lead the season series 3-1.
Can Ashcraft record his second win of the season on Sunday afternoon? Check out the Reds vs. Pirates prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our MLB Picks!
Burns Gets the Nod on Sunday Afternoon
Chase Burns will be on the rubber. Burns was solid in his latest start, yielding two runs in six innings of work against Colorado, and was awarded the victory. The young righty is proving why he was a top prospect. Burns has held his opponent to two or fewer runs in all but one outing and is sporting a 2.65 ERA, a .112 WHIP, and a 3-1 record in 34 innings of work. He tossed five shutout innings against Pittsburgh in March and has given up just one run with a 1-0 record in 13 career innings against the foes.
The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the best teams in the big leagues, led by their power and pitching. They have only lost two series this season. Cincinnati posted a series win against Detroit last weekend, along with two wins in three home meetings against the Rockies this week. They scored 15 runs in that series and squandered 19 runs. The Reds stand at 10-4 on the road
Elly De La Cruz continues to produce at the dish. The young star now has 10 bombs along with 25 RBIs and an .892 OPS. De La Cruz is 3 for 16 with two RBIs against the Pirates this season, entering Saturday. Sal Stewart is a talented young player making an impact. The 22-year-old first baseman already has nine homers with 29 RBIs.
Spencer Steer has been inconsistent this season. The 28-year-old outfielder only has 10 RBIs but has added a solid .782 OPS. Steer has one RBI against the Pirates this season. Tyler Stephenson is a good catcher, but has only posted six RBIs. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been slumping the entire season, recording just one RBI.
Cincinnati is averaging 4.19 runs per game, ranking them 22nd. The pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, placing them 15th in the big leagues. 
Ashcraft Targets Second Win of Season
Braxton Ashcraft will get the nod on Sunday afternoon. Ashcraft was pelted in his recent outing, squandering six runs, including two home runs, in just 4.1 innings against the Cardinals, and was dealt the loss. The young righty has been dominant with the exception of that outing and has delivered a 3.71 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, accompanied by a 1-2 record in 35 innings pitched. He has 39 strikeouts on the season. Ashcraft held the Reds to just two runs in six innings in his season debut in a clash the Reds lost. He has conceded five runs in 13.2 career innings against Pittsburgh.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are enjoying an encouraging 30+ games to begin the season. This is a younger squad poised to break out and make a run at a postseason spot. The Pirates are concluding a long homestand in this game. They have cooled down recently after they were dealt a home sweep at the hands of the Cardinals this week. Pittsburgh managed 18 runs in the series and conceded 25 runs. The Pirates have a 9-9 mark at home on the season.
Nick Gonzalez is having a breakout season at the dish. The 26-year-old third baseman is hitting an outstanding .333 with 15 RBIs and a .776 OPS. Gonzalez enjoyed a big series against the Reds last month, posting five hits and two RBIs. Oneil Cruz also exposed the Reds in the first series, bashing three home runs with six RBIs. Cruz has nine homers with 26 RBIs on the season.
Ryan O’Hearn has been Pittsburgh’s top hitter. The veteran slugger has amassed 21 RBIs and a robust .872 OPS. Brandon Lowe was a big addition in the offseason. The veteran second baseman has driven in 20 runs. Rookie Konnor Griffin has posted a .632 OPS
The Pittsburgh offense is scoring an average of 4.92 runs on the season, rating them 10th. The pitching has been mediocre, netting a 3.73 ERA, placing them sixth.
Reds vs Pirates Pick
Spread Pick for Reds vs. Pirates
- Pittsburgh Pirates -120 (5 units)
The Cincinnati Reds are a solid team, but have been giving up too many runs in recent games. They squandered 19 runs in three meetings against the Rockies prior to this series. The Pittsburgh Pirates are improved this season and had success against the Reds in the first series, winning two of three meetings on the road, keeping the Cincinnati offense to only seven runs. Pittsburgh also won the first game of this series.
Furthermore, Pirates pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has been steady. The righty has conceded two or fewer runs in all but one of his outings. He kept the Reds to just two runs in six innings in the first series. Ashcraft is pitching deep into games, which is a huge positive considering the Pirates have also benefited from their stingy bullpen, which has issued a strong 3.67 ERA. Go with the Pirates at home.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Pirates
- Over 7.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to have a ton of scoring. Cincinnati continues to produce, scoring at least six runs in six of its past 10 games. While the Pirates' pitching staff has strong numbers, it has been regressing a bit in the past week or so, and the Pirates surrendered 31 runs in its past five games entering Saturday evening. Ashcraft has reported an abysmal 5.06 ERA at home.
In addition, Pittsburgh exposed the Reds' pitching in the first series, scoring 16 runs in three games. The Reds' pitching staff has been shaky. They have squandered an average of six runs in their past ten games. The over is a convincing 5-1 in the Pirates' past six home games.
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