Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 24 2026

Tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals picks begin with a Cincinnati underdog with two usable plus-price paths against an expensive St. Louis favorite.

St. Louis has eased slightly from about -158 to -156, while Cincinnati has shortened from +142 to +132. The total is holding at 8 despite both starting ERAs sitting well above four. Readers can also find more daily analysis in our MLB picks and predictions and MLB player props coverage.

Best Available Odds for Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals

• Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +132 | St. Louis Cardinals -156
• Run Line/Spread: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-166) | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+138)
• Total: Over 8 (-112) | Under 8 (-108)

Game Info

• Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EDT
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
• TV: Reds.TV and Cardinals.TV
• Probable Pitchers: Rhett Lowder vs Dustin May

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

Cincinnati is 47-54 and enters with the weaker record, but the Reds have received market support. Their speed and power create multiple ways to score, and the plus price becomes attractive when the opposing starter is not a dominant run preventer.

St. Louis is 52-50 and deserves to be favored at home, yet -156 asks too much in this matchup. The Cardinals need Dustin May to create an early advantage, and his season ERA does not guarantee that outcome.

The total of 8 is low relative to the combined starter ERAs. Busch Stadium can suppress home runs, but both pitchers have allowed enough traffic that the game can reach four runs before the bullpens take over.

The MLB betting trends are genuinely split. Cincinnati's road games have leaned over, while St. Louis home games have leaned under. The most useful baseball interpretation is to expect a competitive first half and avoid treating the Cardinals as an automatic early leader.

The move toward Cincinnati supports that view. The Reds remain a clear underdog, but the market has already reduced some of the opening gap.

Pitching Matchup

Rhett Lowder enters with a 5.75 ERA. He has the raw ability to work through St. Louis, but command mistakes have turned manageable innings into multi-run problems.

Lowder's first-five objective is simple: keep the Cardinals from building a two-run lead. Cincinnati's offense can help by creating early pressure against May.

Dustin May owns a 4.78 ERA and has not been consistent enough to justify a heavy first-five favorite price. His movement can produce weak contact, but walks and deep counts make him vulnerable.

The two starters are close enough that Cincinnati receiving a half-run through five is more appealing than backing St. Louis at an expensive full-game number.

Game Thesis: St. Louis has the home-field and bullpen advantages, but Cincinnati can stay level through five and has enough offensive upside to win outright. The low total also leaves room for an over if both starters pitch to their season form.

Best Bet - Cincinnati Reds +0.5 First Five Innings (-115)

Cincinnati +0.5 through five innings is the best bet because a tie cashes against a starter with a 4.78 ERA. The Reds have received market support and can create enough early offense to prevent St. Louis from controlling the opening half.

Lowder is volatile, but the wager does not require a dominant start. He needs to keep the Cardinals within one swing while Cincinnati attacks May.

The price remains reasonable and avoids laying the expensive St. Louis moneyline.

Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Reds (+132)

Cincinnati is the full-game side at +132. The Reds have the offensive tools to exploit May, and the favorite price places too much confidence in a St. Louis team only two games above .500.

The Cardinals have the better late-game structure, so the moneyline is a higher-variance position than the first-five cushion.

Total Pick: Over 8 (-112)

The over is also playable because the combined starter ERA exceeds five and eight provides push protection. Cincinnati's road scoring tendency and the possibility of early bullpen work create a path to nine runs.

Busch Stadium is the main counterweight, but the pitching matchup is vulnerable enough to overcome the park in a 5-4 game.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 5, St. Louis Cardinals 4