Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals Prediction and Picks - September 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC Wednesday afternoon on the MLB diamond, we have a Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals prediction ready to rock and roll. The Reds are in a fight for a wildcard berth with a 75-76, while the Cardinals still have slim hopes with a 74-78 mark. The teams have split the first two games of this series. Which team will keep their playoff hopes alive? Continue reading to see our Reds vs Cardinals prediction.
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The Offense Was a No-Show in Game 1
Cincinnati dropped Game 1 of this series 3–0, managing just four hits and striking out nine times against rookie Michael McGreevy and a sharp Cardinals bullpen. The Reds never advanced a runner past second base, and their best chance came in the sixth when Elly De La Cruz singled and stole second, only to be stranded. Andrew Abbott took the loss, allowing three runs over six innings, including a two-run homer to Thomas Saggese. The Reds have now lost four of their last five and are averaging just 2.8 runs per game over that stretch. With the offense sputtering and the bullpen taxed, they’ll need a bounce-back effort to stay in the playoff hunt.
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At 75–76, Cincinnati sits 3 games behind the final NL Wild Card spot with 11 games remaining. They’ve gone 6–9 in September and are just 35–42 on the road, but they’ve shown resilience all season—ranking top-10 in comeback wins and extra-base hits. The lineup has power, with De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Will Benson combining for 51 home runs, but they’ve hit just .221 with runners in scoring position over the last 15 games. Cincinnati is 5–6 against St. Louis this season and needs sharper execution to avoid slipping further in the standings. A win tonight would even the series and keep their postseason hopes alive heading into the final stretch.
Brady Singer gets the start, bringing a 13–10 record and a 3.94 ERA across 155.1 innings. He’s riding a six-game quality start streak and has allowed just two earned runs over his last 12 innings. Singer has dominated St. Louis this season, posting a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 18 innings against them, with opponents hitting just .180. His fastball-slider combo has been especially effective against right-handed hitters, and he’s averaging 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. With the bullpen stretched and the offense pressing, Singer’s ability to work deep into the game is critical. If he can keep the Cardinals off balance early, Cincinnati has the bats to flip the script
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Cardinals Are Running Out Of Time
St. Louis opened the series with a clean 3–0 win, snapping a two-game skid and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. Michael McGreevy delivered six shutout innings in his MLB debut, striking out four and walking none, while Thomas Saggese provided the big swing with a two-run homer in the third. Brendan Donovan added a sacrifice fly in the first, and the bullpen closed it out with three scoreless frames. Nolan Arenado returned to the lineup and went 2-for-4 with a double, giving the Cardinals a much-needed boost at third base. The win marked their sixth in the last nine meetings with Cincinnati and showed renewed sharpness on both sides of the ball.
At 73–78, the Cardinals sit 4.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot with ten games left. They’ve won just four of their last ten but have taken three straight from Cincinnati at home. The offense has been inconsistent, ranking 28th in home runs and 27th in slugging, but the return of Arenado and steady production from Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras gives them a more balanced attack. Defensively, they’ve committed just one error over their last five games, and their bullpen has posted a 2.91 ERA in September. If they can continue to suppress Cincinnati’s power bats and generate early traffic, they’ll have a chance to stay alive in the playoff race.
Andre Pallante takes the mound, entering with a 6–14 record and a 5.34 ERA across 155 innings. He’s been hit-or-miss, allowing four or more earned runs in five of his last eight starts, but he’s also shown flashes—posting a 3.12 ERA in August before a rough September stretch. Pallante relies on a sinker-slider mix and induces ground balls at a 52% clip, which could help neutralize Cincinnati’s pull-heavy lineup. His biggest challenge will be managing traffic—he’s allowed 165 hits and 57 walks this season, and his WHIP sits at 1.43. If he can keep the ball down and avoid early damage, the Cardinals’ bullpen is equipped to protect a lead and grind out another win.
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Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals Pick
Reds vs Cardinals Moneyline Pick
- Reds -113 (5 Units)
Cincinnati holds a clear edge on the mound with Brady Singer, who’s riding a six-start quality streak and has dominated St. Louis this season—posting a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 18 innings against them. His fastball-slider combo has neutralized right-handed bats, and he’s held opponents to a .235 average overall. With the Cardinals ranking 28th in slugging and 27th in home runs, Singer is well-positioned to control the tempo and give the Reds a chance to strike first. Cincinnati has also won 33 of 64 games as favorites this season, and they’ve covered the runline in six of their last ten, showing they can win by margin when the matchup tilts their way.
Offensively, the Reds have the firepower to back Singer’s outing. Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and TJ Friedl have combined for 48 home runs and 237 RBIs, and the team ranks 13th in MLB in runs scored. They’ve hit 152 homers and posted a .317 OBP, giving them multiple paths to production against Andre Pallante, who’s allowed 165 hits and 57 walks this season with a 5.34 ERA. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been sharper than St. Louis’s in September, and with playoff urgency in full swing, expect the Reds to play with pace, pressure, and purpose—bouncing back from Tuesday’s shutout and keeping their Wild Card hopes alive.
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Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under Pick
- Under 8.5 (4 Units)
This matchup tilts strongly toward the Under 8.5, with Brady Singer in peak form and Andre Pallante facing a Reds lineup that’s cooled off considerably. Singer has allowed just two earned runs over his last 12 innings and owns a 2.50 ERA against St. Louis this season, while the Cardinals rank 28th in home runs and 27th in slugging percentage. Cincinnati has hit the under in seven of its last ten games, and both teams have struggled to convert with runners in scoring position. With playoff tension tightening every at-bat and two starters capable of working deep, this game profiles as a low-scoring grind that stays under the number.
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