Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the Cleveland Guardians will play the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, and we have you ready to go with our Guardians vs. Twins prediction. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Twins are -120 moneyline favorites, and the game total is eight runs scored.
Cleveland and Minnesota have played nine times this season. The Guardians have won six of the matchups, and the under was 5-4 in those games. If you want the Guardians vs. Twins prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!
Guardians are making noise in the playoff chase
Cleveland (81-71 SU, 81-71 RL, and 68-79-5 O/U) swept Detroit in its previous series. The Guardians are 9-1 in their last ten games (the under was 8-2).
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Cleveland will start left-hander Parker Messick on Friday versus Minnesota. In his last appearance (6.0 IP win vs the White Sox), the 25-year-old allowed one run and seven hits with four strikeouts. He was 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in five starts (29.1 IP) this season, his first in the big leagues. Messick was a second-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Florida State. He was 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 20 minor league starts (98.2 IP) this year.
The Guardians had the second-best record in the American League last season but fell short in the postseason, as New York bounced them 4-1 in the ALCS. They are second in the AL Central this year, but just swept division leader Detroit and only trail them by 3.5 games. They're also only 1.5 games out of the Wild Card race. Can Cleveland finish strong to make the postseason field?
Cleveland Guardians Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries to report for tomorrow's game against the Twins.
Minnesota will start López on Friday
Minnesota (66-86 SU, 71-81 RL, and 73-70-9 O/U) lost two of three games to the Yankees in its previous series. The Twins are 4-6 in their last ten games (the over was 6-4).
Minnesota will start right-hander Pablo López tomorrow against the Guardians. In his last outing (5.0 IP vs Arizona), the 29-year-old surrendered two runs (zero earned) on four hits and three walks, fanning six Diamondbacks. He is 5-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts (71.2 IP) this season, including 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in five home starts (26.2 IP).
The Twins had a solid run in May, compiling an 18-8 record, but have collapsed since then. The front office decided against investing in the ballclub at the trade deadline, making multiple trades that left Minnesota in poor shape for the final two months of the season. The Twins won't be making an appearance in the postseason in 2025, but will they at least be competitive?
Minnesota Twins Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries to report for Friday's game versus Cleveland.
Guardians vs. Twins Pick
Moneyline Pick for Guardians vs. Twins
- Guardians ML (4 Units)
Cleveland has excellent value to win straight-up at plus odds on the moneyline. López has pitched well in his two starts since his return from the injured list, but he's facing a red-hot Guardians team that has fared well against him in the past (.308 BA in 85 plate appearances). Messick has also been dealing. He has allowed one or no runs in four of his five MLB starts, lasting six-plus innings in each of those appearances. He'll be a challenge for a Minnesota lineup that's never faced him before.
The Guardians have the third-highest winning percentage as road underdogs this season, while the Twins have the sixth-lowest winning percentage as home favorites. Bet on the visitors to maintain their momentum on Friday in Minneapolis.
Over/Under Pick for Guardians vs. Twins
- Under 8 (5 Units)
Betting Trends: The under is 31-21-4 when the Guardians are road underdogs and 27-17-1 in their games against the AL Central.
It's a likely possibility that Friday's matchup is a pitcher's duel. López has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 appearances this season, including both outings he made since his return from the IL. He has a 1.85 ERA in night games, too. The Guardians could have some success against him tomorrow, but not enough to chase him from the game early. Messick is also a reliable starter, especially with one of baseball's top bullpens backing him up (4th in ERA).
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