Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction, Thursday, September 4, 2025
The Cleveland Guardians (69-69) and the Tampa Bay Rays (70-69) will play the first of a four-game series on Thursday in the American League in this Guardians vs. Ray prediction. These teams met in late August, with Cleveland taking two of three games at home. Both teams are still alive in the Wild Card race. Cleveland will start Logan Allen (4.42 ERA) with Tampa Bay going with Ryan Pepiot (3.70 ERA). First pitch is set for 7:35 EST. Keep reading to see our Guardians vs. Rays prediction, and check out all of our best Free MLB Picks.
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Cleveland Plays .500 Baseball
The Cleveland Guardians come into this four-game series with the Rays with a record falling at exactly .500 with 69 wins and 69 losses. They are third in the AL Central, and 10.5 games behind the division-leading Tigers, but are much closer to a playoff spot in the Wild Card race. They are three games out of that final Wild Card spot in the American League, but would need to pass out four teams to get there. They are continuing their road trip, as they just lost two of three on the road in Boston.
In their last game against the Red Sox, their offense was resurrected, winning the game 8-1 to avoid the sweep. They scored six runs in the second inning, partially fueled by two throwing errors from Boston. Jose Ramirez had two RBIs in that game, and has been the most consistent hitter for Cleveland all season. The 32-year-old third baseman has been with the team since 2013, and is leading the team with 26 home runs and 70 RBIs while batting a strong .278 at the plate. Steven Kwan had a three-hit game with an RBI. He is their leadoff hitter, with 10 home runs and 44 RBIs to go with his .274 batting average.
Logan Allen will make his 26th start of the season as a 26-year-old left-hander. He has a 7-10 record with the team going 3-2 overall in his last five starts. His ERA is 4.42 with 105 strikeouts against 47 walks. In his last start, Allen gave up four runs in six innings, but they still got a win over the Mariners.
Rays Win Six Straight
The Tampa Bay Rays mean business lately, and have won six straight games coming into this contest. They swept the Nationals in Washington, and followed that up with a sweep of the Mariners at home. This pushed them to only 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot, but would still need to surpass the Royals, Rangers and Mariners to officially claim that bid. Their offense has been consistent, scoring at least six runs in each of the last four games.
Yandy Diaz had a big showing in their final game against Seattle, as he had his first-ever five-hit game. The 34-year-old is in his seventh season with Tampa Bay, after playing for two seasons in Cleveland. Diaz was batting second as their DH, and has added 22 home runs and 76 RBIs on the year, with a strong batting average of .294, which is 18th best in the Majors. Junior Caminero had two RBIs in his last game, the up-and-coming third baseman is having a strong season as he is now up to 40 home runs and 102 RBIs, both career highs for the 22-year-old infielder. Brandon Lowe bats third in between Diaz and Caminero, Lowe has contributed 28 home runs and 74 RBIs as their second baseman.
Ryan Pepiot will make his 29th start of the season as a 28-year old right hander. He leads Tampa Bay in innings pitched, and has a 10-10 record to go with with 3.70 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio is 155-55. In his last start, Pepiot pitched five scoreless innings in a win over the Nationals.
Tampa Bay Rays -150 (5 units)
The Rays are a strong favorite here at home, but the extra juice will be worth it as Tampa stays hot and grabs a win at home to start this series. Pepiot is on the mound for Tampa Bay, the team has won in four of his last five starts, and he is coming off a strong showing against the Nationals, where he gave up just one hit with no runs while striking out six in a victory. He had a very similar outing before that, pitching five scoreless innings with just one hit against the Cardinals. He has only given up two hits over his last 10 combined innings, and will keep that momentum going here. Tampa Bay's offense has been hot lately. Yandy Diaz just had a five-hit game, Caminero is up to 40 home runs, and they have scored six or more in each of their last four games. Tampa Bay stays hot here.
Take the Rays to win.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Over (4 units)
Both teams are trending heavily to the over, and we will follow that trend here. These teams are not quite in desperation mode; that final Wild Card spot is in reach, but three games is a bigger deficit than you think when three other teams are between them and the final playoff bid. These teams have answered that call with their offense, putting up big runs and hitting overs consecutively coming into this game. Cleveland went over in each of their last three games, and Tampa Bay went over in all of their last four. Expect more action on the bases in this one.
Take the over.
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