Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday April 24 2026
Use Code WWWC Colorado travels to Citi Field on April 24 for a late-April National League showdown that features one of the starker starting pitching contrasts on the board, with a struggling veteran right-hander facing off against a Mets arm who has been one of the more dependable strikeout options in the early going. Bettors working through the night's slate of MLB predictions will find this Rockies vs Mets matchup interesting because the team offensive profiles tell one story, while the pitching matchup tells another. Colorado has been the more productive lineup statistically, but New York's edge in swing-and-miss ability and baserunner prevention creates a different kind of handicap that tilts the value toward the Rockies getting runs on the spread with upside on the total.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Rockies +1.5
- Total Pick: Over 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Mets 5, Rockies 4
Odds and Line Movement
The market on this game has moved in a notable range, with New York holding favorite status across every timestamp but the juice fluctuating between -220 and -245. Colorado has floated between +184 and +200 as an underdog, creating some opportunity for bettors who caught the best of the number on the Rockies side. The total has bounced around 7.5 with the Under getting heavy public attention at the 100 percent level on multiple ticks, which is a classic contrarian setup when the pitching matchup features this much command risk from one of the starters.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | +194 | Over 7½ -122 |
| NY Mets | -235 | Under 7½ +100 |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | +188 | Over 7½ -110 |
| NY Mets | -225 | Under 7½ -110 |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | Colorado | NY Mets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24 | 01:46:11AM | +188 | -225 |
| 04/24 | 01:45:02AM | +200 | -245 |
| 04/23 | 04:43:58PM | +190 | -230 |
| 04/23 | 04:43:46PM | +194 | -235 |
| 04/23 | 03:34:01PM | +184 | -220 |
| 04/23 | 03:32:45PM | +194 | -235 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24 | 01:45:10AM | 7½ -110 | 7½ -110 |
| 04/23 | 09:12:50PM | 7½ -106 | 7½ -114 |
| 04/23 | 07:25:11PM | 7½ -110 | 7½ -110 |
| 04/23 | 07:24:48PM | 7½ -114 | 7½ -106 |
| 04/23 | 04:38:46PM | 7½ -115 | 7½ -105 |
| 04/23 | 03:32:45PM | 7½ -122 | 7½ +100 |
Rockies vs Mets Key Matchups and Handicap
Rockies
Colorado's offensive profile is actually the strength of its side in this matchup, with the team hitting .251 as a unit backed by a .315 OBP and a .404 slugging percentage, all of which grade out better than New York's season numbers. The Rockies also lead this matchup in runs, hits and home runs, which is not a typical combination for a team walking into Citi Field as a significant underdog. Mickey Moniak has been the top power threat with eight home runs, 15 RBI and a .324 average, giving Colorado a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat who can change a game with one swing. Troy Johnston has also been productive with a .325 average, a .381 OBP and a .481 slugging percentage, providing the kind of on-base ability that can take advantage of Freddy Peralta if he runs into any walk trouble.
The case for Colorado getting runs on the spread comes back to the trust issue with Peralta despite the strong peripherals. Peralta enters at 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, 26.2 innings pitched, 19 hits allowed, 28 strikeouts, 10 walks and four home runs surrendered. The strikeout rate is impressive and the WHIP is elite, but four home runs in 26.2 innings is a number that suggests a power-heavy lineup like Colorado's can find the barrel on mistakes. Given the Rockies come in at +1.5 with potential plus money value, the path to cashing the run line does not require a win, just a competitive nine innings, and that looks achievable against a starter who has already shown some home-run vulnerability.
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Mets
New York holds a clear edge in this matchup on the mound, and that is the biggest reason the Mets are such heavy moneyline favorites. Peralta's 28 strikeouts in 26.2 innings against Colorado's lineup is a significant number because it neutralizes some of the Rockies' contact and power advantages by removing baserunners before they can do damage. The 1.09 WHIP also speaks to Peralta's ability to limit traffic, which is the exact profile needed to keep Moniak and Johnston in check. Combined with home field at Citi Field and the price action suggesting strong market support, the Mets win-only angle is where the pitching matchup pays off most cleanly.
On the other side of the ball, the Mets offense has been the weaker of the two lineups statistically, with just a .227 team average, a .291 OBP and a .344 slugging percentage. Francisco Alvarez has been the standout, leading the club with four home runs while batting .242 with a .346 OBP and a .455 slugging mark, and Bo Bichette has contributed 12 RBI despite a pedestrian .238 average. The bigger concern is the injury picture: with Francisco Lindor on the 10-day IL, Jorge Polanco also on the 10-day IL and Mike Tauchman out, the Mets lineup is missing multiple useful pieces against a starter they should be able to exploit. That gap between what the Mets offense could be at full strength and what it actually is right now is the reason the Over 7.5 has value and why a one-run game is more likely than a comfortable Mets win.
Betting Trends - COL vs NYM
Recent form is relatively balanced, with both teams winning two of their last five games, but the direction of the momentum slightly favors the Mets, who have won two straight, while Colorado is coming off a 10-8 loss that showcased both the offensive capability and the pitching vulnerability that defines this Rockies roster. The 10-8 outcome is notable because it supports the Over 7.5 angle, showing that Colorado games can generate offense even when the team loses. Public money has been heavy on the Under at 100 percent on multiple ticks, which creates contrarian value on the Over when Lorenzen's 2.12 WHIP is factored into the handicap. The statistical trend points clearly to the pitching matchup as the deciding factor, with Peralta's 1.09 WHIP dramatically outclassing Lorenzen's 2.12 WHIP.
Key Injuries and Notes - COL vs NYM
The Mets' injury report is the more impactful one in terms of lineup construction, with Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco both on the 10-day IL and Mike Tauchman also out, removing three useful pieces from the batting order at a time when New York's offense has already been inconsistent. The Mets are also missing bullpen depth, with Nate Lavender, Joey Gerber and A.J. Minter all injured, which could create late-game exposure if Peralta exits earlier than expected. Colorado's injury picture is not clean either, with Wili Castro day-to-day, Jared Thomas on the 7-day IL, Jimmy Herget on paternity leave, Kyle Freeland on the 15-day IL and Ryan Feltner day-to-day, which weakens both the outfield and pitching depth. The combination of Mets offensive injuries and Rockies pitching depth issues creates a scenario where both teams are operating below full strength, which favors scoring and a tighter margin.
Rockies vs Mets ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: Rockies +1.5 is the preferred play, supported by Colorado's superior team offensive profile, Lorenzen's 2.12 WHIP giving the Rockies outs to work with, and the Mets lineup being significantly weakened by the Lindor, Polanco and Tauchman injuries.
- Total: Over 7.5 is the play, with Lorenzen's command issues, both teams dealing with meaningful injuries, and the contrarian angle against 100 percent public money on the Under all pointing toward a higher-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction
The projected final score is Mets 5, Rockies 4. Peralta's strikeout ability should keep Colorado's better bats in check for stretches of the game, but Lorenzen's 2.12 WHIP is a massive red flag that should allow the Rockies to put plenty of traffic on the bases and manufacture enough runs to cover the +1.5 spread. A nine-run total comfortably clears the Over 7.5 number, and the one-run margin keeps the Rockies spread alive, giving bettors a scenario where the run line and total can both cash even if the Mets win straight up.
How to Bet Rockies vs Mets
For bettors looking to get action on this Rockies vs Mets matchup, there are several strong platforms available depending on your state and preferences. If legal online sportsbooks are not available in your area or you want a free-to-play alternative, social sportsbooks are a great way to get involved with MLB betting through promotional coins and daily rewards that work well on games like this one. Bettors in legal states who want access to strong underdog run-line pricing and competitive total markets should consider the bet365 bonus code, which is a good fit for a game like this where the Rockies +1.5 and Over 7.5 are the recommended plays. Another excellent option is the fliff promo code, which unlocks bonus coins that can be used across moneylines, run lines, totals and player props, giving bettors flexibility to shop Peralta strikeout markets and Moniak home-run props alongside the primary sides and totals in this Rockies vs Mets matchup.
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