Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction, Game 3, Thursday, October 2, 2025

On Thursday, the Detroit Tigers will play the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of the American League Wild Card Round at Progressive Field, and we have you ready to go with our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction. Detroit won Tuesday's series opener 2-1, and Cleveland staved off elimination with a 6-1 win in Game 2. First pitch from Cleveland, OH, is at 1:08 p.m. ET.

The Guardians are -110 moneyline favorites, and the game total is seven runs scored.

Cleveland won the regular season series 8-5, winning five of the last six matchups between these AL Central rivals. The under was 7-3 in the last ten games. If you want the Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!

Tigers are on the ropes

Detroit (87-75 SU, 74-88 RL, and 83-71-8 O/U in the regular season) finished second in the AL Central after fading down the stretch. The Tigers were 7-17 in September and 28-37 in the second half of the season, allowing Cleveland to overtake them in the division title race.

The Tigers will start right-hander Jack Flaherty in Game 3 against Cleveland. The 29-year-old was 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this year (161.0 IP), including 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road (14 starts). He is 2-5 with a 2.51 ERA in ten career appearances against the Guardians, including 0-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season (16.0 IP).

Detroit broke out in 2024, winning 86 games in the regular season and riding a 31-11 surge into the Division Series. For a proud franchise and city, it was the type of season the fans deserved. Now, it's about building off that success by becoming a legitimate World Series favorite. The Tigers dominated the first half of the season (59-38), but barely made the postseason. Can they get back to their winning ways with a fresh slate?

Detroit Tigers Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries to report for Thursday's Game 3 AL Wild Card game against the Guardians.

Cleveland is one win away from burying its rival

Cleveland (88-74 SU, 86-76 RL, and 71-85-6 O/U in the regular season) trailed Detroit by 15.5 games on July 6 and was still down ten games as recently as September 3, but completed its incredible comeback to win the AL Central on the last day of the regular season.

Cleveland will turn to righty Slade Cecconi on Thursday against Detroit. The 26-year-old was 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during the regular season (23 starts), including 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home (69.2 IP). Cecconi is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 11 Ks in two career appearances (12.0 IP) against the Tigers. Both outings came this season.

The Guardians had the second-best record in the American League last season but fell short in the postseason, as New York bounced them 4-1 in the ALCS. They were three games under .500 in the first half, but turned it on after the All-Star break (42-25 record), especially this month (20-7). Cleveland is light on offense, but keeps games close on the mound. They lowered their team ERA by over a half run in the second half and pitched to a 2.61 ERA in September.

Cleveland Guardians Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries to report for Thursday's Game 3 AL Wild Card game against the Tigers.

Tigers vs. Guardians Pick

Moneyline Line Pick for Tigers vs. Guardians

• Cleveland ML (4 Units)

This is the Guardians' shot to send their rival to a quick exit. Wednesday's win was a statement, as Cleveland piled on five runs late in the game and thwarted the Tigers' comeback efforts. The home team's bullpen has proven to be more effective all season, and nothing has changed in this Wild Card series. Cleveland has fared well against Flaherty this season, beating him three times, including twice down the stretch. Cecconi, meanwhile, held Detroit to three runs in two starts, but those outings were in May and July. In short, I feel confident the Guardians' recent experience against Flaherty will give them a boost, preparing them to get on the board early in Game 3.

Bet on the Cleveland ML.

Over/Under Pick for Tigers vs. Guardians

• Over 7 (5 Units)

I anticipate more scoring in Game 3. This isn't quite the same quality of pitching matchup we saw in the first two games, which were both low-scoring until Cleveland's eighth-inning rally on Wednesday. With a seven-run total, there is more upside in a bet on the over, as both starters pitched to near-4 ERAs in the final month of the regular season, and the Tigers' bullpen is unreliable. I expect both teams to get on the board early before Cleveland rallies to put the game away in the final four innings.