Detroit Tigers vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday May 13 2026
Use Code WWWC Detroit and New York meet Wednesday night at Citi Field with the Mets coming off a 10-2 thrashing in the series opener and walking into a pitching matchup that looks like it favors them all over again. Framber Valdez makes his first start after his suspension, and Christian Scott has been the steadier arm in the early sample size for the Mets. For Wednesday night MLB picks, this is a spot where the home club has the cleaner case on the moneyline and the total deserves a careful look given both bullpens running thin.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: New York -112
- Total Pick: Over 8
- Projected Final Score: Mets 5, Tigers 4
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Odds and Line Movement
This game has had genuine market action. Detroit opened as a -116 favorite with the Mets at -104, but the line has flipped, with New York now sitting at -112 and Detroit at -108. The public is split in an interesting way, with the latest snapshot showing 97 percent of money and 75 percent of tickets on Detroit at the same time New York attracted full 100 percent ticket and money share at the opening number. The total has dropped from 8 down to where the under is heavily favored by the public at 89 to 91 percent, suggesting bettors expect a lower-scoring game than the lopsided Tuesday result.
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit | -116 | Over 8-108 |
| NY Mets | -104 | Under 8-112 |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit | -108 | Over 8-118 |
| NY Mets | -112 | Under 8-102 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Detroit | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 06:59:59AM | -108 | -112 | DET 97%, DET 75% |
| 05/13 | 12:20:06AM | -116 | -104 | NYM 100%, NYM 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/13 | 07:57:45AM | 8-118 | 8-102 | UN 89%, UN 91% |
| 05/13 | 07:29:29AM | 8-117 | 8-102 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/13 | 06:59:59AM | 8-115 | 8-105 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/13 | 12:20:06AM | 8-108 | 8-112 |
Tigers vs Mets Key Matchups and Handicap
The biggest variable in this entire matchup is Framber Valdez. He is listed as Detroit's probable starter and may be vulnerable to runs scored against him, which creates real handicap uncertainty. Assuming he is active and makes the start, the Tigers are sending out a left-hander at 2-2 with a 4.57 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 35 strikeouts, 15 walks and five home runs allowed over 43.1 innings. That WHIP is the part that points toward traffic, and a starter coming off any kind of layoff is rarely sharp out of the gate.
Christian Scott counters for the Mets in a smaller sample but with the much cleaner profile. He is 0-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15 strikeouts, seven walks and just one home run allowed across 11 innings. That is a starter limiting damage and not handing out free passes, which is the kind of profile that travels well against any lineup, especially one that already saw a different Mets arm hold them down on Tuesday before the offense pulled away.
Detroit has the stronger offensive base on the season, hitting .243 with a .324 OBP, .392 slugging percentage, 38 home runs and 177 runs. Riley Greene leads the way with a .315 average, .414 OBP and .483 slugging percentage, which is the kind of top-of-the-order production that can flip a low-scoring game. Dillon Dingler tops the team with seven homers and 27 RBI, giving the Tigers some real run-creation tools even on nights when the rest of the lineup is quiet.
New York comes in at .225 as a team with a .291 OBP, .343 slugging percentage, 31 home runs and 149 runs, which is a more modest profile, but Tuesday's 13-hit, 10-run output shows the offense can absolutely break out. Mark Vientos leads the team in home runs with five, Bo Bichette has 17 RBI, and Francisco Alvarez is hitting .241 with a .317 OBP and .393 slugging percentage. The Mets also have the better pitching foundation overall, sitting at a 3.80 ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to Detroit's 3.99 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Recent form points firmly toward the Mets as well. New York just demolished the Tigers in the opener and the lineup carried the energy across all nine spots in the order. That kind of result tends to spill into the next game, particularly when the home team also has the steadier starting pitcher walking to the mound.
Betting Trends DET vs NYM
The line movement is the most important trend here. Detroit opened at -116 and has drifted all the way back to -108 even with 97 percent of the money on the Tigers in the latest snapshot. That is meaningful reverse line movement, the kind that typically reflects sharp action on the other side. When the public hammers a favorite and the price keeps moving the other way, the lighter side usually has the value.
On the total, the under has been pounded at 89 to 91 percent ticket and money share, and the juice on the under has crept down from -112 at open to -102 currently. That kind of public lean often creates value on the over, especially in a game where the road starter has both command issues and a question about his physical status walking onto the mound.
Key Injuries and Notes DET vs NYM
Detroit's injury list is meaningful on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are without Connor Seabold, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter, which weakens both pitching depth and lineup balance. Losing Carpenter in particular pulls a key left-handed bat out of the order, and the rotation absences make it harder for the bullpen to absorb a short outing from Valdez.
New York has its own absences in Grae Kessinger, Jose Rojas, Joe Jacques and A.J. Minter. Minter being out is the most relevant arm loss for late innings, but the Mets have generally been the deeper club between these two staffs, and Alvarez being listed as day-to-day is worth monitoring because his bat is the most impactful question mark in the lineup card for the home side.
Tigers vs Mets Moneyline and Total Picks
- Moneyline: New York -112 is the preferred side. Reverse line movement, the cleaner starting pitching profile from Scott, Tuesday's blowout result and the better team ERA all support backing the Mets at home.
- Total: Lean Over 8. Valdez's WHIP and walk profile point toward traffic, both bullpens are dealing with injuries, and the public is heavily on the under, which often creates value on the other side at this number.
Final Score Prediction
Mets 5, Tigers 4. Scott navigates Detroit's lineup well enough to keep New York in front, the Mets find a multi-run inning against Valdez early, and the Tigers' offense answers late to make it tight but not enough to flip the result.
How to Bet DET vs NYM
For a Wednesday game with this much line movement and starter uncertainty, monitoring any new news on Valdez and shopping the moneyline price across multiple books is the smart play. The Mets price has already moved meaningfully, and even small juice differences matter when you are taking a side that the public is fading. If you do not have a traditional sportsbook available in your state, social sportsbooks are a strong option for getting action on a game like Tigers and Mets using sweepstakes-style coin systems that can still be redeemed for prizes.
If you want a mobile-friendly platform that consistently posts MLB moneylines and totals with competitive pricing, check the fliff promo code page for the current sign-up offer. It fits well with the kind of multi-angle plays this Detroit and New York matchup invites, whether you are backing the Mets straight up, attacking the over or building a small parlay that captures both. The more places you can shop a price on a game with this much late information still moving the market, the better your long-term value on contrarian plays like this one.
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