Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Picks and Predictions Sunday May 3, 2026
Use Code WWWC Arizona (16-16) will try to avoid a series sweep when they visit Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon to face Chicago (21-12) in the finale of their three-game set at 2:20 PM ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction. Don't go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Matthew Boyd, 1-1, 7.00 ERA, will get the start for the Cubs. The Diamondbacks will counter with Merrill Kelly, 1-2, 9.20 ERA.
Cubs Looking To Complete The Sweep
The Cubs have not only a 10-game home winning streak, but have won four in a row overall, and are 14-3 since beginning that overall win streak on April 14. Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in baseball and will look to close out a sweep of the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon at the Friendly Confines.
Chicago ranks third in MLB in scoring, averaging 5.5 runs per game. Cubs hitters have an OPS of .846 with bases empty this season.
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Chicago has 17 home runs over their past 10 games, slugging .478 with 3.5 extra-base hits per contest, and batting .279 while averaging 10.0 hits per game over that stretch. Seiya Suzuki has accumulated a team-best batting average of .389 over the last 10 games and leads the Cubs with five home runs in that span, while Dansby Swanson is batting .273 with two home runs over the same stretch.
Cubs pitchers have walked just 8% of batters this season, fourth best in MLB.
It has been a rocky start to 2026 for Boyd, who dealt with a left biceps strain earlier in April and has been largely ineffective when on the mound, posting a 1-1 record with a 7.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across 18 innings over four starts. Still, the Cubs will need him to give them length so a taxed bullpen can rest heading into the week ahead.
Diamondbacks Trying To Salvage A Series Win
Arizona is hovering just above the .500 mark about a month into the season after a disappointing 2025. The D-backs have now dropped two straight in this series and are in desperate need of a win to avoid being swept at Wrigley.
The Diamondbacks' offense has been leading the way with a .726 team OPS that ranks ninth in baseball. Former Cubs infielder Ildemaro Vargas is off to an incredible start with a 1.087 OPS and six home runs, while Corbin Carroll is playing much more like his first season with a .968 OPS. However, star second baseman Ketel Marte has struggled early with a .682 OPS, leaving a significant gap in the middle of the order.
Arizona's pitching has been very shaky, with the D-backs ranked 27th in ERA entering this series. Arizona also has one of the worst bullpens in Major League Baseball this season, posting a 5.03 ERA.
Merrill Kelly has been a shadow of his former self in 2026. In his first two starts, Kelly's ERA was 9.31, and in game three he struggled with his command, walking five batters in the first five innings.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Picks
Money Line Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
- Chicago Cubs ML (4 Units)
The Cubs get the clear edge here because they have the home field advantage, the far superior pitching matchup on paper, and momentum on their side. The Cubs' next win over the Diamondbacks at home will be their 50th since the rivalry began in 1998, and this is a prime opportunity to get there. Kelly has been one of the worst starters in baseball through five weeks, and a Cubs lineup that has been scorching hot at Wrigley will have no trouble tagging him early. Even with Boyd scuffling himself this season, this ballpark and this offense create a mismatch that strongly favors Chicago. The Diamondbacks are just 10-4 when leading entering the seventh inning this season — fourth lowest in MLB — meaning once the Cubs get ahead, they tend to finish the job. Take Chicago on the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
- Over (4 Units)
Both starters have been shelled consistently this season, and both bullpens have been unreliable. The Over has hit in the last three Cubs games, and in three of the last four for the Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the game total Over in 29 of their last 50 games. With two struggling starters on the mound and one of the most potent home offenses in baseball getting its cuts, expect runs to come early and often at Wrigley on Sunday afternoon. Take the Over.
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