Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
In this Astros at Rangers prediction, the two in-state rivals battle in Arlington as the first-place Astros visit the Rangers. The Astros, after a brief scare from the Mariners, are back up to a four-game cushion in the AL West. The Rangers are still hanging around as well, less than two games behind the Mariners for the third and final wildcard spot entering the weekend. The pitching matchup on Saturday is a classic as hard-throwing Astros’ righty Hunter Brown (10-7, 2.34) takes on former NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (6-4, 2.69). The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 PM EST. Read on for more in this Astros/Rangers prediction, and grab our top MLB predictions to increase your bankroll!
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Astros with some breathing room
The Houston Astros have bounced back from a rough stretch near the end of August, now with a four-game lead over the second-place Mariners heading into the weekend. The Astros won two of their last three games heading into the series finale with the Yankees in Houston. On Thursday night, the Astros fell 8-4 to the Bombers. The loss was the second in three games for the Astros. DH Yordan Alvarez led the Astros' offensive attack, going 4-for-5 with a home run and two RBI.
*This article was written before the completion of Friday night’s Astros/Rangers game.
The Astros can distance themselves from the Rangers with a big weekend series in Arlington. They’ll send Hunter Brown to the hill on Saturday night. Brown is 10-7 on the season in 27 starts, including an impressive 18 quality starts. He has allowed 114 hits in 161.2 innings of work and has given up 14 home runs. Brown has an ERA of 2.34 and a WHIP of 1.01. He has walked 49 batters and struck out 182. The Rangers have lost three of Brown’s last five starts. He is 5-2 on the road this season with an ERA of 2.45 in 13 starts.
Key Injuries: RP Glenn Otto, LF Zach DeZenzo, and 2B Brendan Rodgers are out.
Rangers need to close strong
The Texas Rangers have fought back to within striking distance of the final wildcard spot in the American League. The Rangers had a six-game winning streak snapped in Arizona. They lost the finale as well, 2-0, but still head into the weekend just a game and a half behind the slumping Mariners. On Wednesday, the Rangers’ bats were silenced in the shutout loss. Starter Jack Leiter was the hard-luck loser, going six innings and allowing just three hits and two runs. The Rangers had just five hits in the game, and went 0-5 with RISP.
*This article was written before the completion of Friday night’s Astros/Rangers game.
The Rangers need to put together another winning streak with the season down to roughly three weeks before the start of the playoffs. They’ll hand the ball to veteran Jacob deGrom in game two against the Astros. deGrom comes into this start with a record of 11-6 in 26 starts, including 13 quality starts. He has allowed 105 hits in 150.1 innings of work and given up 20 home runs. deGrom has an ERA of 2.69 and a WHIP of 0.92. He has walked 33 batters and struck out 161. The Rangers have lost four of deGrom’s last five starts. He is 6-4 at home this season with an ERA of 2.20 in 13 games.
Key Injuries: CF Sam Haggerty, RP Danny Coulombe, and SP Tyler Mahle are out.
Astros at Rangers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Money line Pick for Astros at Rangers
- Astros ML
Digging deeper into this excellent pitching matchup and the edge shifts to the Astros. deGrom has started to look like a pitcher who is wearing down over the last two months. He has an ERA of 4.13 in July and followed that up with an ERA of 3.38 in August. Those represent his two highest ERA months of the season. He is also just 3-4 in those two months. Brown had a hiccup in July but bounced back in August with an ERA of 1.67. The Astros’ lineup is heating up, particularly with the return of DH Yordan Alvarez. They are hitting just under .270 in the last ten games. The Rangers have had trouble all season with their lineup, and are hitting just .238 in the last ten games. They’ve scored just three runs in the last two games heading into Friday night. deGrom hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in four of his last five games. Brown has pitched into the sixth in each of his last five starts, and into the 7th twice. He’ll get deeper in the game here as well, and the Astros will wear down the Rangers’ bullpen.
Take the Astros with the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Astros at Rangers
- Over (4 units)
As noted above, the Astros’ bats are heating up. They have gone over the number in four of their last five games. The Rangers have gone over the number in three of the last five games. They have also gone over the total in three of deGrom’s last five starts. The trends will continue on Saturday.
Take the over.
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