Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions, Saturday, May 2nd, 2026
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The Houston Astros (12-20) and the Boston Red Sox (12-19) will play their second of a three game series on Saturday afternoon in this Astros vs. Red Sox prediction. These teams met early in the season with Houston taking all three games at home. The first game of this series was played on Friday night (Note: This article was published before Friday's results). Houston will start Spencer Arrighetti (2.00 ERA) with Boston answering with Connolly Early (2.84 ERA). First pitch is set for 4:10 EST. Keep reading to see our Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, and check out all of our best Free MLB Picks.
Houston Starts Slow
The Houston Astros have not gotten out to the start they were hoping for in this 2026 season, as they sit tied for last in the AL West with a 12-20 record. They are still just 5.5 games behind the division leading Athletics, and look to continue their momentum against the Red Sox, as they swept them in their first meeting of the season. Houston is coming off a series in Baltimore where they lost two of the three games as they continue their East Coast road trip.
In their last game of the series against the Orioles, they avoided the sweep by winning 11-5. Yordan Alvarez and Cam Smith both homered to carry the Astros to the win. Alvarez has been their best hitter on the season, leading the team in almost all of their offensive categories. He leads the squad with 12 home runs, 27 RBIs, and has a strong .356 average at the plate while typically batting second as their DH. Christian Walker has also played well, the first baseman bats cleanup with 7 home runs and 24 RBIs to go with his .293 batting average.
Spencer Arrighetti will make his 4th start of the season as a 26-year old right-hander. He has a 2.00 ERA to go with 21 strikeout against 9 walks. He has picked up the win in each of his first three starts. In his last outing, he pitched seven innings giving up just one earned run in a win over the Yankees. 
Red Sox Return Home
The Boston Red Sox are back in Fenway after playing their last two series on the road, ultimately splitting all six games. They won two of three high scoring games in Baltimore, before dropping two of three up North in Toronto. They are also looking for improvement, as they currently sit in last place in the AL East, two games behind the Blue Jays who sit in fourth. This is a revenge spot for Boston after losing all three games in Houston earlier this season.
The offense disappeared in their last two games in Toronto, only scoring a combined one run over both games. That run came in their most recent game off a first inning home run by Willson Contreras, but they were blanked for the rest of the game. It was his seventh home run on the season to go with 20 RBIs, and Boston needs him to continue upping his production, as he is their top power hitter, leading the team in both categories. Wilyer Abreu is another name that could help, the outfielder is batting .307 with four home runs and 13 RBIs.
Connolly Early will make his 7th start of the season as a 24-year old left hander. He has a 2-1 record to go with his 2.84 ERA and 28 to 14 strikeout to walk ratio. He is in his second season in the Majors, but his first true season as part of the rotation, as he only started four games last year. In his last game, he pitched 6.2 innings allowing two earned runs in a win over Baltimore.
Astros vs. Red Sox Picks and Predictions
Moneyline pick for Astros vs. Red Sox
- Astros (5 units)
The Astros proved they have Boston's number, as they swept them three times earlier in the season. They lit them up too, scoring at least six runs in all three games, mowing down their pitching. Houston has more offensive talent, and Alvarez is putting up All-Star worthy numbers so far. Arrighetti has only pitched in three games so far this season, but the Astros won all of those outings, and he has kept his ERA low at 2.00. Early will start for Boston, and they young pitcher will struggle here against the Houston offense. Look for Houston to keep their dominance over Boston going, and pick up a win on Saturday.
Take Houston to win.
Over/Under Pick for Astros vs. Red Sox
- Under (4 units)
This is a solid pitching matchup, with both pitchers showing an ERA under 3.00. Each has proven they can go deep into ball games as well, as Arrighetti pitched seven innings in a win last time out, and Early was pulled one out earlier finishing at 6.2 innings in his win over Baltimore. Houston has been slightly better offensively, but it is clear both teams are not producing at the level they would like to, as they sit in last place in each of their divisions. Expect a low scoring game here.
Take the under.
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