Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Saturday, May 9, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Houston Astros visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on Saturday at 4:10 PM ET on MLB.TV and FS1. Houston is 15-23 and tied for fourth in the AL West, while Cincinnati is 20-18 and fifth in the NL Central. The Astros lost 12-2 to the Dodgers in their most recent game, while the Reds dropped an 8-3 decision to the Cubs. Cincinnati enters this matchup on a seven-game losing streak. Cash in a winning ticket with our free MLB picks.
Astros Still Producing Runs, But Have Pitching Problems
Houston is coming off a 12-2 loss to the Dodgers, but had won three of its previous four games before that result. The Astros scored 11 runs in consecutive wins over Boston earlier in the week and continue to remain competitive because of their offense.
The Astros are hitting .261 with a .338 on-base percentage and .429 slugging percentage, producing 185 runs on 339 hits. Yordan Alvarez leads the lineup with a .319 average, 12 home runs, 27 RBI, and a 1.061 OPS. Christian Walker is batting .307 with nine home runs and 27 RBI. Jose Altuve continues to contribute near the top of the lineup with 32 hits and nine doubles. Houston has already totaled 47 home runs this season and ranks among the stronger offensive teams in the American League.
Pitching remains Houston’s biggest issue. The Astros have a 5.82 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, both ranking near the bottom of MLB. The staff has allowed 53 home runs, and opponents are batting .267 against them. Houston has recorded 341 strikeouts, but the high walk total of 201 continues to create problems for the staff and scoring opportunities for opponents.
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Injuries: Lucas Spence, 7-Day IL, Tatsuya Imai, 15-Day IL, Jeremy Pena, 10-Day IL, Nate Pearson, 15-Day IL, Lance McCullers Jr., Day-To-Day
Reds Trying to End Seven-Game Losing Streak
Cincinnati is coming off an 8-3 loss to the Cubs and has now lost seven straight games. The Reds have dropped several close games during this stretch, including extra-inning losses earlier in the week, while the offense has struggled to produce consistently late in games.
The Reds are hitting .220 with a .306 on-base percentage and .387 slugging percentage, producing 156 runs on 279 hits. Elly De La Cruz leads the offense with 10 home runs, 28 RBI, and eight stolen bases while batting .265. Sal Stewart has also hit 10 home runs and has driven in 30 runs, while Nathaniel Lowe is batting .270 with six home runs and a .581 slugging percentage. Cincinnati has generated much of its offense through power, totaling 52 home runs despite ranking near the bottom of the league in batting average.
Pitching has been more stable than Houston’s overall numbers. Cincinnati carries a 4.59 ERA and 1.51 WHIP while allowing a .253 opponent average. The Reds have recorded 293 strikeouts with 184 walks and have generally kept games competitive despite the recent losing streak.
Injuries: Nick Lodolo, 15-Day IL, Caleb Ferguson, 15-Day IL, Alex Young, Out, Josh Staumont, 7-Day IL, Eugenio Suarez, 10-Day IL
Pitching Matchup
Houston Astros – Spencer Arrighetti
Arrighetti is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 23.0 innings. The right-hander has allowed 16 hits with 25 strikeouts and just one home run allowed this season.
Cincinnati Reds – Chase Burns
Burns is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 41.0 innings. The right-hander has allowed 29 hits with 46 strikeouts and 13 walks while holding opponents in check consistently.
Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Spread Pick
The Cincinnati Reds have the edge due to stronger overall pitching and home-field advantage. Burns has been one of the most effective starters in the National League, while Houston’s pitching staff continues to struggle limiting baserunners. Even with the Astros producing offensively, Cincinnati is in a stronger position to control the game if Burns continues his recent form. The Reds are in a favorable spot to end the losing streak and win at home.
Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick
This matchup will cash under because both starting pitchers have been effective in limiting damage. Arrighetti has allowed only five earned runs all season, while Burns’ pitches continue to miss bats consistently. Cincinnati’s offense has struggled during the current losing streak, and if both starters pitch deep into the game, scoring opportunities could remain limited.
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