Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 5, 2025
It’s the opening game of a series on the diamond between a pair of AL West teams hoping to find some positive momentum in the Lone Star State as the Houston Astros kick off a three-game set with the Texas Rangers Sunday afternoon and we have you covered with our Astros vs. Rangers prediction. Houston played the rubber game of a three-game set at home with the Yankees on Thursday night. They rallied for an 8-7 win in the middle game of the set. Texas dropped the rubber game of a three-game set with the Diamondbacks on the road, falling 2-0 on Wednesday. In the season series between the teams, the Rangers own a 4-3 edge, including taking two of three on the road in the most recent series, July 11-13. This article was published prior to the conclusion of the Astros’ finale with the Yankees at Daikin Park Thursday night. Read more about this Astros vs. Rangers prediction! Winning isn’t easy so you need the top MLB cappers.
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Astros Looking to Maintain AL West Lead
Houston won a slugfest in the middle game of their three-game set with the Yankees on Wednesday night. The Astros entered Thursday night 77-63 and held a four-game lead over the Mariners for the top spot in the AL West. Against New York on Wednesday, Houston finished with 11 hits as Yordan Alvarez (run, two RBI) led the way with four while Victor Caratini and Jeremy Pena (run, two RBI) each added a pair. Pena (his 15th) went deep in the contest for the Astros in the win. Jason Alexander threw five innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and six strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Bryan King (5-3) earned the win with a 1-2-3 eighth inning in relief.
It's unofficial as of this writing but with Spencer Arrighetti on the IL, Hunter Brown could get the call for his 28th start of the season for the Astros in this contest. He is 10-7 with a 2.34 ERA, a 1.008 WHIP, 49 walks and 182 strikeouts over 161.2 innings of work this season. Brown took the loss in his last start, which came against the Angels on the road Sunday. He threw six innings, allowing one run on three hits with three walks and five strikeouts in a 3-0 Astros defeat. In his last three starts, Brown is 0-2 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, six walks and 18 strikeouts over 18.2 innings of work. Brown makes his ninth career start against the Rangers in this contest. He is 3-4 with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, 12 walks and 45 strikeouts over 45 innings of work against them. Brown is 0-3 with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.429 WHIP, six walks and 22 strikeouts over 21 innings of action in four career starts at Globe Life Field.
Texas Fighting to Stay in Wild Card Chase
Texas dropped their second straight after winning nine of 10 as they were blanked by Arizona on the road in the rubber game of the set on Wednesday. The Rangers entered Thursday 72-69 on the year and stood third in the AL West, 5.5 games behind the Astros for the top spot. They were 1.5 games behind the Mariners for the final wild card spot in the AL playoff picture. Against Arizona on Wednesday, Texas finished with five hits with no player having more than one. The Rangers went zero for five with runners in scoring position in the game and left nine runners on base in the contest. Jack Leiter (9-8) took the loss as he allowed two runs on three hits with three walks and eight strikeouts over six innings of work.
Merrill Kelly gets the ball for his 29th start of the season overall and seventh with the Rangers here. He is 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.049 WHIP, 46 walks and 149 strikeouts over 164 innings of work on the year. Kelly earned the win in his last start, which came against the Athletics on the road Saturday. He threw 6.1 innings, allowing three runs on six hits with no walks and two strikeouts in a 9-3 Rangers win. In his last three starts, Kelly is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA, a 0.724 WHIP, two walks and 13 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work. Kelly makes his third career start against the Astros in this contest. He is 0-1 with a 0.73 ERA, a 0.973 WHIP, four walks and 11 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work against them. Kelly is 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, nine walks and 24 strikeouts over 25 innings of action in four career starts at Globe Life Field.
Astros vs. Rangers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
- Texas Rangers (4 units)
Houston is struggling with injuries in their pitching staff as Arrighetti is the latest arm to bite the dust. The Astros have the advantage of holding the division lead in the AL West. Brown may or may not get the start here as Houston was planning on going to a six-man rotation before Arrighetti went down. Kelly has been a solid addition for the Rangers after being picked up at the trade deadline. The Rangers are a tough team at home and they had Thursday off while Houston was in action against the Yankees. Injuries get the better of the Astros here as the Rangers draw first blood.
Over/Under Pick for Astros vs. Rangers
- Under (5 units)
Houston has seen the under post a 70-64-6 mark in their 140 games this season entering Thursday. The Astros are 24th in the majors in runs per game with 4.20 per contest, a number that edges up to 4.52 runs per game on the road. Their average total this season is 8.25 runs per game, though that slips down to 8.17 runs per game away from Daikin Park. Texas entered Thursday night having seen the under post a 76-62-3 mark in their 141 games this season. The Rangers are 20th in the majors with 4.30 runs per game, a number that falls to 4.19 runs per game at home. Texas has an average total of 7.96 runs per game this season and that number drops down to 7.13 runs per game as the home team. With the way Globe Life Field has been an under venue all season, lean that way here as well.
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