Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Thursday, September 11, 2025
In this Astros at Blue Jays prediction, the Astros and Blue Jays wrap up their three-game series in Toronto in a battle of division leaders on Thursday afternoon. The Astros continue to pace the AL West Division with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. The Blue Jays are trying to fend off the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East while also maintaining the top mark in the American League overall. The pitching matchup on Thursday afternoon features Astros’ righty Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43) taking on Blue Jays’ veteran righty Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63). The first pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM EST. Read on for more in this Astros/Blue Jays prediction, and grab our top MLB predictions to increase your bankroll!
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Astros trying to fight off Mariners in AL West Division
The Houston Astros can’t seem to shake the Seattle Mariners in the AL West Division. With less than three weeks in the season, the Astros enter play on Wednesday night with just a one-game lead over the second-place Mariners in the division. On Tuesday night, the Astros dropped their second straight game, a 4-3 loss to the Blue Jays in ten innings. The Astros, still without closer Josh Hader, blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning and lost it on a walk-off single in the 10th. It was the team’s second straight loss and third in their last four games.
*This article was written before the completion of Wednesday night’s Astros/Blue Jays game.
The Astros are now in a fight to the finish with the Mariners for the top spot in the American League West Division. Both teams are also trying to fend off the red-hot Texas Rangers for the third wildcard spot. The Astros will turn to righty Cristian Javier in the series finale with the Blue Jays. Javier will be making just his sixth start of the season. He has a record of 1-2 with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.33. He has allowed 13 hits in 20.1 innings of work, including two home runs. Javier has struggled with his command since returning from the IL. He has struck out 20 batters but walked 12. The Astros have won three of Javier’s five starts this season. He struggled in his lone road outing this season, failing to get out of the fourth inning and allowing five runs.
Key Injuries: RP Josh Hader, SP Luis Garcia, 2B Brendan Rodgers, LF Zach Dezenzo, and 3B Isaac Paredes are out.
Jays looking to be the AL East’s top dog
The Toronto Blue Jays still have plenty to play for with the regular season winding down. They still hold a lead over both the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East standings and have a slight lead over the Detroit Tigers for the best record in the American League. The Jays come into Wednesday night’s game with the Astros, winners of three of their last five games. They came from behind dramatically in game one of this series with Houston, scoring two runs in the ninth to tie the game and walking it off in the 10th inning thanks to a Tyler Heineman fielder’s choice ground ball that scored Myles Straw from third base.
*This article was written before the completion of Wednesday night’s Astros/Blue Jays game.
The Blue Jays come into Wednesday night’s game with a three-game lead over both the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East Division. They also have a half-game lead over the Tigers for the best record in the American League. They’ll try to close out this series with a victory by sending veteran righty Kevin Gausman to the hill. Gausman is 9-10 on the season in 28 starts, including 14 quality starts. Gausman has allowed 130 hits in 168.2 innings of work this season. He has given up 21 home runs and has an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.03. Gausman has walked 44 batters while striking out 162. The Blue Jays have lost four of Gausman’s last five starts. He is 4-4 at home this season in 13 starts with an ERA of 3.84.
Key Injuries: SP Alek Manoah, RP Nick Sandlin, RP Angel Bastardo, SS Bo Bichette, and RF Anthony Santander are out.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Pick
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Money line pick for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays ML (4 units)
The Blue Jays have been dominant at home this season, 22 games over .500 heading into Wednesday night’s contest. The Astros are just 35-35 on the road this season. The Jays also have the benefit of veteran righty Gausman on the hill Thursday afternoon. He will keep them in the game until they get to the late-inning relievers. Javier has not nearly been as efficient since returning from the IL. He has already walked 12 batters in just 20 innings of work, a recipe for disaster against a good-hitting Blue Jays team. Toronto is hitting nearly .270 as a team this season. A lack of control and getting free passes on the bases will do in the Astros on Thursday.
Take the Astros with the money line.
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Over/Under Pick for Astros at Blue Jays
- Under (4 units)
Blue Jays starter Gausman has not received a ton of support this season, thus the 9-10 mark despite a solid WHIP and several strikeouts. The Jays have gone under the number in each of Gausman’s last five starts. They have also gone under the total in four of their last five games overall. The Astros’ bats have been relatively quiet as well. The ‘Stros have gone under the number in three of their last five contests heading into Wednesday night’s game. Ride these trends again on Thursday.
Take the under.
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