Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 20, 2026

The Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates meet Sunday at PNC Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Kansas City is 67-87, fifth in the AL Central and 12 games behind first-place Cleveland, with eight games remaining. The Royals have been eliminated from playoff contention and lost 8-5 to Pittsburgh on Friday for their second straight defeat. Pittsburgh is 77-77, third in the NL Central and 19 games behind Milwaukee. The Pirates are eight games behind the final NL Wild Card position with eight games remaining. Let’s break down the matchup with our free MLB picks.

Kansas City Royals Trying to End a Rough Road Stretch

Kansas City has lost four of its last five games, with the only victory in that stretch coming 5-2 at Houston on Wednesday. Bobby Witt Jr. is batting .276 with a .358 on-base percentage, 18 home runs, 54 RBI, and a team-high 145 hits while adding 42 stolen bases. Carter Jensen leads Kansas City with 24 home runs and 75 RBI, while Jac Caglianone is batting .277 with 23 homers, 70 RBI and a .483 slugging percentage. Michael Massey has also hit .279 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI.

The Royals are batting .244 with 648 runs, 1,259 hits, 160 home runs, a .314 on-base percentage, and .398 slugging percentage. Kansas City ranks 14th in MLB batting but just 25th in pitching with a 4.65 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Opponents are batting .259 against the staff, which has recorded 1,114 strikeouts. Defense has been one of Kansas City’s stronger areas, as the Royals rank fifth in fielding with 67 errors and a .988 fielding percentage. Their 28-51 road record remains a major concern entering Sunday.

Injuries: Jac Caglianone (questionable), Connor Seabold (out), Tony Gonsolin (out), James McArthur (out), Beck Way (out).

Pittsburgh Pirates Finding More Offense at Home

Pittsburgh has won three of its last five games, scoring seven or more runs in consecutive victories over Milwaukee and Kansas City. Brandon Lowe has been Pittsburgh’s main power source with 32 home runs and 91 RBI while batting .260 with a .488 slugging percentage. Nick Gonzales leads the Pirates with a .304 average, .368 on-base percentage and 161 hits. Bryan Reynolds is batting .263 with 17 homers, 71 RBI and a .366 on-base percentage, while Oneil Cruz has hit .277 with 19 home runs, 66 RBI and 27 stolen bases.

The Pirates are batting .254 with 738 runs, 1,346 hits, 176 home runs, a .331 on-base percentage and .404 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in MLB batting and has scored 90 more runs than Kansas City. The pitching staff ranks 17th with a 4.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .237 opponent batting average while recording 1,398 strikeouts. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in fielding with 93 errors and a .983 fielding percentage. The Pirates have been much stronger at PNC Park, posting a 40-36 home record.

Injuries: Kirby Yates (out), Isaac Mattson (out), Esmerlyn Valdez (out), Braxton Ashcraft (out), Mitch Keller (out).

Pitching Matchup

Kansas City Royals - Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha is 9-9 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 188.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 158 hits and 27 home runs while striking out 149 batters and walking 49.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Lake Bachar

Lake Bachar is 1-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 81.1 innings. Bachar has surrendered 57 hits and 13 home runs, recording 84 strikeouts against 35 walks.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Pick

• Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh is the pick behind a stronger offense and a solid home record. The Pirates hold clear advantages in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and they have scored seven or more runs in each of their last two victories. Kansas City has dropped four of five and owns a 28-51 road record. Wacha’s 3.34 ERA creates a difficult matchup for Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have produced more consistently at the plate and are 40-36 at PNC Park this season.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under Pick

• under

Under is the pick with Wacha and Bachar each posting strong individual numbers. Wacha owns a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 188.2 innings, while Bachar has a 3.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 81.1 innings. Pittsburgh has scored well recently, but Kansas City has been held to two runs or fewer in three of its last five games. The Royals also have a .314 on-base percentage, while Bachar has allowed only 57 hits. Starting pitching makes a lower-scoring game attractive despite Pittsburgh’s recent production.