Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 31 2026
Use Code WWWC Miami (26-32) will look to avoid the road sweep when they wrap up a three-game set against New York (24-33) at Citi Field on Sunday afternoon at 1:40 PM ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Marlins vs. Mets prediction. Don’t go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Janson Junk, 3-5, 4.80 ERA, will get the start for the Marlins. The Mets will counter with Nolan McLean, 2-2, 4.40 ERA.
This preview was written before Saturday’s game was played.
Mets Looking To Complete The Sweep And Build Momentum
The Mets snapped a five-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over Cincinnati behind a Juan Soto home run and key contributions from Carson Benge, and now have a chance to take three straight against the Marlins to get back near .500. A sweep on Sunday would be a significant momentum builder for a team that has been mired in last place in the NL East for most of the season.
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Juan Soto headlines the Mets lineup with a .294/.390/.559 slash and 10 home runs, while Bo Bichette leads the club with 27 RBI. Offensively New York has struggled for consistent contact with a team .228 batting average and .645 OPS, but they still carry enough punch with 46 home runs to win tight games behind key swings.
McLean was one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball entering this season and delivered on that promise early, posting a 2.78 ERA over his first eight starts with 57 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.90. Since then, he has hit the first true rough patch of his Major League career, allowing 16 earned runs over his last two starts combined, with his ERA jumping to 4.40 on the season. The silver lining for the Mets is that McLean carries a career 1.71 ERA at Citi Field, compared to 3.13 on the road, giving him a meaningful home-field advantage on Sunday afternoon.
Marlins Trying To Avoid The Sweep
The Marlins enter Sunday having lost two straight to the Mets after their series win over New York last week, and the Fish are now six games below .500 with a roster that has quietly been one of the more competitive rebuilding teams in the NL East.
Miami ranks 10th in baseball in batting average at .244 and leads the majors with 62 stolen bases, generating offensive value through contact and baserunning rather than power. Otto Lopez leads the team with a .337 batting average, Xavier Edwards bats .313, and power-hitting catcher Liam Hicks leads the club with 11 home runs and 44 RBI.
Junk had been quietly effective early in the season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his first six starts, before hitting a rough patch.
Marlins vs. Mets Picks
Money Line Pick for Marlins vs. Mets
- New York Mets ML (4 Units)
The Mets get the edge here because they have a meaningful pitching advantage at home, a lineup that has caught fire over the last two days, and the statistical context firmly in their favor. McLean has been dominant at Citi Field throughout his brief career, holding a 1.71 ERA in the home ballpark, and Sunday’s afternoon start gives him the ideal conditions to rebound from his recent struggles. Junk’s ERA has ballooned to 4.80 overall after a stretch in which he has been unable to limit hard contact, and the Mets’ power core led by Soto is not a lineup a struggling right-hander wants to face while trying to right the ship. The Marlins have lost three straight road series and are just 10-19 away from home this season, a significant disadvantage heading into Sunday’s rubber game. Take the Mets on the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Marlins vs. Mets
- Under (4 Units)
McLean has a 1.37 ERA in day games, compared to 2.82 at night, and Sunday’s afternoon start at a park that has historically suppressed offense profiles as a low-scoring setup. The Mets’ team batting average of .228 ranks among the worst in baseball, limiting their ability to pile on runs even when the momentum is flowing. Miami ranks 27th in home runs, relying far more on stolen bases and singles than on extra-base pop, which limits their scoring ceiling even when they get traffic on the basepaths. With a Day-game-specialist in McLean on the mound at Citi Field and a Marlins offense that rarely generates big innings against right-handed starters, take the Under.
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