Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Saturday, May 16, 2026
Use Code WWWC It’s a battle between the two Florida clubs on Saturday, May 16. Read our Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction along with our other Free MLB Picks on the night. The Marlins are 20-25 and starting one of their top pitchers in Sandy Alcantara in this game. The Marlins have won three of Alcantara’s last four appearances. The Rays are the best team in the American League with a 29-14 record. They have won 11 of their last 13 games coming into this matchup. The Rays are set to start Nick Martinez in this game. These two teams will meet with first pitch set for 4:10 P.M. EST.
Marlins losers of 8 of last 12 games
Miami is 20-25 overall this season. The Marlins are in fourth-place in the National League East. They are 11 games back of the Braves for the top spot, as they have struggled for consistency to start the year. The Marlins are 6-13 when playing on the road, too. Miami has lost eight of their last 12 games coming into this matchup. The Rays defeated Miami 7-2 in the first game of the series on Friday.
Sandy Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins. The right-handed pitcher is 3-2 with a 4.06 ERA in nine starts this season. He threw six innings against the Nationals in a 5-2 win on May 10. The Marlins have won three of Alcantara’s last four starts. In three starts, he has a 6.00 ERA when playing on the road. He also owns a 6.52 ERA in three starts against American League teams.
The Marlins are hitting .242 this season, which ranks 11th. They are the 18th ranked runs scored team in the league. Miami ranks 13th in hits and they have the second-most triples. Miami ranks first in bases stolen, which has been key this year. The Marlins are hitting .224 on the road and in the month of May. They have a .221 batting average against American League clubs, too.
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Rays hold best record in American League
Tampa Bay is 29-14 overall this season. The Rays are in first place in the ultra competitive American League East. They are 15-4 at home as they have dominated at the plate and on the mound. Tampa Bay has won 11 of their last 13 games. They defeated Marlins 7-2 in the first game of the series on Friday night.
On Saturday, Nick Martinez gets the start for the Rays. The right-handed pitcher is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA in eight starts. He's been great this year with his last start coming against the Red Sox on May 10. He threw 5.2 innings and allowed one run and seven hits in a 4-1 win. In three starts, Martinez has a 1.53 ERA at home. The Rays are 7-1 when Martinez has started this season. He has a 2.33 ERA in three starts against National League clubs, too.
The Rays are hitting .259 this season, which ranks third-best. They rank 12th in runs scored and they also own the fifth-most hits. Tampa Bay has hit the fifth-fewest home runs, but they rank second-best in stolen bases. The Rays are hitting .265 at home and .278 this month. They are also hitting .252 against the National League.
Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks
Marlins vs Rays Spread Pick
- Take the Rays to cover (5 units)
It’s been a fantastic start to the season for Tampa Bay. They have the best record in the American League and everything is clicking. The offense is scoring plenty of runs and the pitching has been fantastic. Saturday will show it all with Nick Martinez getting the nod. He has a 1.53 ERA at home and Tampa Bay 7-1 when he starts. Miami has no chance against him as they are hitting .221 against American League clubs. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara, who has a 6.52 ERA against AL clubs this season, which the Rays are going to take advantage of.
Take the Rays to cover.
Marlins vs Rays Over/Under Pick
- Take the over (5 units)
Miami and Tampa Bay both rank first and second in stolen bases this season. That means chances are going to be plentiful for runs and even though Martinez is getting the start, Miami will have a few opportunities to score thanks to their speed. These two offenses will have a big day thanks to hitting consistency and base running.
Take the over on Saturday.
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