Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, with the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET, televised on MLB.TV. Milwaukee is 87-54, first in the NL Central with an eight-game lead over Chicago. The Brewers are 2-3 over their last five after Thursday’s 2-1 loss to the Cubs. Cincinnati is 67-73, fifth in the NL Central and 19.5 games behind Milwaukee. The Reds are 3-2 over their last five after Wednesday’s 7-3 win over San Diego and sit 6.5 games behind the final NL Wild Card position. Get ready for Saturday’s matchup with our free MLB picks.

Milwaukee Brewers Have the Stronger Overall Profile

Milwaukee ranks third in MLB with a .256 batting average and has scored 705 runs while posting a .339 on-base percentage. Jackson Chourio is batting .285 with 21 home runs and 58 RBI, while Jake Bauers has 23 homers, 76 RBI and a .389 on-base percentage. Brice Turang has added 17 home runs, 79 RBI and 18 stolen bases. William Contreras is batting .272 with 136 hits, and Andrew Vaughn has produced a .313 average through 94 games. Milwaukee’s lineup has several productive hitters instead of relying on one bat.

The Brewers have also been one of baseball’s strongest pitching clubs, ranking second with a 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opponents to a .221 batting average. Milwaukee is 40-29 away and owns an 87-54 overall record. The Brewers have dropped three of their last five, but scored nine runs in consecutive wins over Chicago before Thursday’s 2-1 defeat. Milwaukee has also dominated this season series, winning six of the first seven completed meetings with Cincinnati.

Injuries: Rob Zastryzny, Bryse Wilson, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester and Angel Zerpa are on the injured list.

Cincinnati Reds Rely on Power From the Middle of the Order

Cincinnati ranks 30th in MLB with a .228 batting average, although the Reds have hit 186 home runs. Sal Stewart leads Cincinnati with 31 homers, 105 RBI and 143 hits while batting .266. Elly De La Cruz is batting .273 with 21 home runs, 60 RBI and 24 stolen bases, providing power and speed. JJ Bleday has added 22 homers, while Tyler Stephenson has 14. The Reds have scored 581 runs, 124 fewer than Milwaukee through their current records.

The Reds are 34-37 at Great American Ball Park and have won three of their last five. Cincinnati took two of three from San Diego, scoring 11 runs across the two victories. Pitching has been a larger problem over the full season. The Reds rank 26th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while opponents are batting .252. Cincinnati has issued 567 walks and allowed 180 home runs, two areas that can make it difficult to contain deeper lineups for nine innings.

Injuries: Eugenio Suarez is day-to-day, while Graham Ashcraft, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Spencer Steer and Michael Toglia are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers - Dustin May

Dustin May is 6-9 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 128.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 125 hits and 45 walks while recording 122 strikeouts. May has been particularly good at keeping the ball inside the park, allowing only 10 home runs across his workload. His strikeout total sits close to one per inning, while 170 combined hits and walks have contributed to the 1.32 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds - Andrew Abbott

Andrew Abbott is 6-10 with a 4.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across 148.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 144 hits, 70 walks, and 21 home runs while striking out 115. Abbott’s walk total has been his biggest issue among those numbers, with 214 combined hits and walks. His 21 home runs allowed are high through nearly 150 innings.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Pick

• Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has several statistical advantages despite Dustin May’s 4.69 ERA. The Brewers are 87-54, own a 40-29 road record, and have won six of seven completed meetings with Cincinnati this season. Milwaukee is batting .256 with a .339 on-base percentage, while Cincinnati sits at .228 and .307 in those categories. The larger difference comes from pitching, where Milwaukee owns a 3.48 team ERA compared with Cincinnati’s 4.64 mark. With stronger season numbers in several areas, the pick is Milwaukee to win Saturday in Cincinnati.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick

• Over

A higher-scoring game is supported by the starting pitchers and Cincinnati’s season-long pitching numbers. Dustin May has a 4.69 ERA, while Andrew Abbott owns a 4.49 ERA and has allowed 21 home runs across 148.1 innings. Cincinnati’s staff has a 4.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 180 home runs allowed. Milwaukee has scored 705 runs with a .339 on-base percentage, and the Reds have hit 186 homers despite their low average. With scoring chances available against both starters, over is the pick Saturday.