Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
In this Twins at Royals prediction, the Twins begin a three-game set in Kansas City against their division rivals, the Royals. The Twins are now in fourth place in the AL Central Division and have begun the process of retooling their roster for next season. The Royals are still very much in the wildcard chase, less than three games behind the Mariners for the final spot. The pitching matchup on Friday night will feature Twins’ ace Joe Ryan (13-7, 3.08) taking on Royals’ veteran righty Michael Wacha (8-11, 3.52). The first pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM EST. Read on for more in this Twins/Royals prediction, and grab our top MLB predictions to increase your bankroll!
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Minnesota changing gears
The Minnesota Twins quickly shifted gears from a playoff contender at the start of July to a team looking to get younger and improve its roster by the Trade Deadline to close out the month of July. Since then, the Twins have faded from contention and arrive in this series in fourth place in the AL Central Division. They have lost three straight games, including a 4-3 loss to the White Sox on Wednesday night at home, heading into the series finale on Thursday. The Twins held a 3-1 lead heading into the 9th inning, but with several key pieces of their bullpen having been traded away last month, they were unable to hold on. Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis each had three hits in a losing effort.
*This article was written before the completion of Thursday night’s White Sox/Twins game.
The Twins will turn to their most consistent pitcher, righty Joe Ryan, in the series opener against the Royals. Ryan is 13-7 in 27 starts this season, including a team-leading 14 quality starts. He has allowed 120 hits in 155 innings of work and given up 19 home runs. Ryan has an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 0.97. He has walked 30 batters and struck out 174. The Twins have won three of Ryan’s last five starts. He is 6-3 with a 2.97 ERA at home in 13 starts.
Key Injuries: C Christian Vazquez, SP Pablo Lopez, and RP Anthony Misiewicz are out.
Royals still have a fighting chance
The Kansas City Royals are not yet ready to give up on the 2025 season. They come into Thursday night’s series finale with three straight losses, however, and are in danger of slipping out of the race. The Royals lost their third straight on Wednesday night in a 4-3 loss to the Angels. Starting pitcher Ryan Bergert was excellent, allowing just one run on one hit through five innings. Unfortunately, the Royals had just four hits in the game and couldn’t make their lead hold up.
*This article was written before the completion of Thursday night’s Royals/Angels game.
The Royals continue their homestand on Friday night with the Twins coming to town. The Royals are just 3-7 in their last ten games and need to get hot or risk being knocked out of the playoff chase. They’ll go with veteran Michael Wacha in the opener vs. the Twins. Wacha is 8-11 in 27 starts this season, including 12 quality starts. He has allowed 112 hits in 153.1 innings of work, including 13 home runs. He has walked 39 batters and struck out 112 thus far. The Royals have won three of Wacha’s last five starts. He is 4-5 at home this season with an ERA of 3.01 in 14 starts.
Key Injuries: SP Bailey Falter, 2B Jonathan India, RP Steven Cruz, and SP Cole Ragans are out.
Twins vs. Royals Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Twins vs. Royals
Royals ML (4 units)
No lead is safe in the late innings now for the Twins after trading away their top three relievers at the deadline. That was on full display on Wednesday night when the Twins’ bullpen coughed up three runs in the 9th to lose. Both of Friday night’s pitchers, Ryan and Wacha, have been effective as of late. The Twins have won three of Ryan’s last five starts. He also has an ERA a shade under 3.00 on the road. The Royals’ Wacha has been effective at home with an ERA just a shade over 3.00 at 3.01. They have won three of Wacha’s last five starts as well. Expect this game to be tight into the late innings, and that's where the Royals will flourish. They’ll get some good swings against the Twins’ young bullpen and pick up the win.
Over/Under Pick for Twins vs. Royals
Over (4 units)
Wacha sports an ERA a half a run lower at home than his ERA overall. The Royals have also gone under the number in three of Wacha’s last five starts. Ryan has a lower ERA on the road than he does overall. The Twins come into this contest having gone under the number in five straight games. This one will be tight and likely decided by late runs against the depleted Twins’ bullpen.
Take the under.
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