Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Saturday, August 22, 2026

Petco Park in San Diego hosts Game 2 of this three-game interleague series at 8:40 PM ET as the Minnesota Twins (63-65) visit the San Diego Padres (68-60) in a matchup with NL Wild Card implications for the hosts. The Padres will be happy to be back at home, where they're 37-26 on the season. They held their own on their road trip, winning two of three in Cleveland before dropping two of three to the Mets. The Twins have also had their ups and downs recently, getting swept by the Phillies before sweeping the Braves. Still, the Twins are just 28-34 on the road. Saturday's pitching matchup is the series' most compelling individual duel: Casey Mize (5-7, 3.18 ERA), who the Padres acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Detroit Tigers, against Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.40 ERA) for Minnesota. Read on to find out who takes the series lead in our Twins vs. Padres prediction. Don't go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!

Mize Has Bounced Back From His Nightmare Debut

Casey Mize had a disastrous Padres debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks in which he gave up eight earned runs in just 3.1 innings. The 29-year-old has since rebounded from that nightmarish start, allowing two earned runs and eight hits in 12 innings across his previous two starts. "I was asked, 'Was it an outlier?'" Mize said after allowing just three hits across six innings against Cleveland. "I [didn't] want to say 'Yes.' But yes, it was. I'm not saying I'm going to go six shutout innings every time either. It's just that I feel like I can put us in a good chance to stay in the game more times than not." For the season, Mize boasts a 3.18 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

His acquisition was a surefire signal that the Padres are invested in a playoff run. The right-hander's sinker-splitter combination that made him a franchise-building piece in Detroit is fully intact at Petco Park, a pitcher who generates ground-ball contact and limits the hard exit velocity that other parks amplify plays specifically well at a venue where the marine layer and deep outfield dimensions suppress everything that gets in the air. Mize's 1.07 WHIP reflects elite baserunner prevention, and the two-start rebound from the Arizona nightmare demonstrates the mechanical consistency that justified San Diego's deadline investment.

The San Diego Padres have hit the game total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home, a consistent home-game totals suppression that runs most emphatically through starts where Petco Park's environmental qualities amplify a contact-management pitcher's profile. The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home, a 70% home money-line conversion rate that is one of the best in the National League and reflects the organizational depth of a lineup featuring Manny Machado's .292 average, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s power, and Jackson Merrill's contact quality behind a pitching staff that has now added Mize to a rotation that already carried Buehler and King.

Kremer at 5.40 Is Fighting for His Rotation Spot

Dean Kremer is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 53 strikeouts in his starts for the Twins, a right-hander whose 2026 season has been characterized by the inconsistency that has defined his time with Minnesota since being acquired in a trade. The home run risk with Kremer is the central mechanical concern heading into Petco Park: a fly-ball pitcher whose elevated exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate creates the kind of multi-run inning vulnerability that a Padres lineup with genuine power depth can exploit even in a run-suppressive environment.

The Twins are just 28-34 on the road, a road record that reflects the broader offensive inconsistency of a Minnesota club that has struggled to generate sustained production away from Target Field all season. The Twins are just 19-24 when facing the bottom 10 runs-allowed teams this season, and today they face the Padres, who rank ninth fewest in runs allowed. That specific underperformance against quality pitching staffs is the most relevant data point for anyone considering backing Minnesota to pull the road upset behind a 5.40 ERA Kremer.

Byron Buxton gives the Twins their most dangerous individual bat against San Diego's pitching, his power and contact quality when healthy represent the one matchup angle that gives Minnesota a realistic path to multiple runs against a Mize who is finding his Padres form. Luke Keaschall is batting .361 in his last 17 games, going 22 for 61 with 14 singles in that span, the contact-first offensive catalyst at the top of the order who gives the Twins the on-base consistency needed to build scoring opportunities. But the Twins' lineup overall has hit just .194 over a recent stretch, and a road offense struggling for production against quality pitching staffs facing a Mize with a 3.18 ERA and fresh mechanical confidence is a challenging proposition.

Twins vs. Padres Picks

• Money Line Pick: San Diego Padres

The Padres are invested in a playoff run and Saturday's home game gives them the pitching-park combination that makes their money line the most defensible home-favorite position on the evening slate. Mize's two-start rebound, 2 ER and 8 hits across 12 innings, demonstrates the mechanical consistency that his 3.18 season ERA reflects, and the Petco Park environment amplifies every contact-suppression quality he brings to the mound. The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home. Take San Diego.

• Over/Under Pick: Under 8 Runs

The San Diego Padres have hit the game total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home, the most consistent single home-park totals lean in the National League. Mize's 1.07 WHIP and Petco Park's marine layer create the run-suppression combination that has driven that Under record across the season. Even accounting for Kremer's 5.40 ERA generating some Padres run production in the early innings, a Minnesota offense batting .194 in its recent road stretch against a pitcher with Mize's contact management profile does not project to generate the four or five runs needed from their side to push the total past 8. The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings team total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home, suggesting the Padres themselves will score, but Petco's run-suppression qualities keep the combined total well under the posted number.