Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday April 23 2026
Use Code WWWC Thursday’s Twins-Mets matchup looks like a game where the starting pitching edge carries the day, and our latest MLB predictions lean points toward Minnesota as the cleaner side. The Twins enter with the better overall offensive numbers, a proven arm in Joe Ryan taking the mound, and a clear edge in lineup depth against a Mets team that is starting a listed probable pitcher without a current statistical line. Pair that with a slight lean to the Under on a tight total and this matchup comes with a clear betting structure. Here is the full handicap, projected score, and betting guide for Twins vs Mets on April 23.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Twins (-116)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Twins 4, Mets 3
Odds and Line Movement
The market has treated this game as essentially a coin flip throughout the cycle, with the Twins showing up as a slight favorite at multiple points between -104 and -120, while the Mets have toggled between small favorites and small dogs on some entries. The current price has Minnesota at -116 and New York at -102, with public ticket indicators pushing heavily to Minnesota. The total has been stable at 7.5 across the board, bouncing between -105/-115 splits and even juice, which signals a market with no strong directional read on scoring.
Opening Odds
| Market | Minnesota | NY Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -116 | -102 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-110) / Under 7.5 (-110) | |
Current Odds
| Market | Minnesota | NY Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -116 | -102 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-110) / Under 7.5 (-110) | |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | Minnesota | NY Mets | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/23 | 08:40:08 AM | -116 | -102 | MIN 93%, MIN 52% |
| 04/23 | 06:34:27 AM | -118 | +100 | MIN 93%, NYM 54% |
| 04/22 | 10:15:43 PM | -120 | +102 | |
| 04/22 | 08:40:56 PM | -116 | -102 | |
| 04/22 | 08:40:40 PM | -118 | +100 | |
| 04/22 | 01:20:12 PM | -110 | -106 | |
| 04/22 | 01:19:54 PM | -104 | -112 | |
| 04/22 | 01:18:37 PM | -108 | -108 | |
| 04/22 | 01:16:41 PM | -116 | -102 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/22 | 08:46:23 PM | 7½ -110 | 7½ -110 | |
| 04/22 | 01:19:47 PM | 7½ -105 | 7½ -115 | |
| 04/22 | 01:16:41 PM | 7½ -110 | 7½ -110 |
Twins vs Mets Key Matchups and Handicap
The Twins come into this game with the more productive offense of the two clubs, scoring 119 runs compared to 78 for the Mets. That is a significant gap across the first several weeks of the season, and it shows up throughout the supporting numbers as well: Minnesota leads in batting average (.227 to .224), on-base percentage (.326 to .288), slugging percentage (.377 to .334), and home runs (28 to 17). The on-base gap in particular stands out, because it points to a Twins lineup that creates more sustained traffic inning after inning.
Neither team is playing clean baseball right now, though. Minnesota has dropped five of its last six, while New York is just coming off a 12-game losing streak that was snapped in Wednesday’s 3-2 win in this series. That means both teams are in stretches where a good starter can really shape the outcome, which is where the handicap tilts in Minnesota’s favor.
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Joe Ryan is the clearest separator in the matchup. He enters at 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA, an outstanding 0.88 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, just six walks, and only one home run allowed in 27.1 innings. That is a starter pitching far better than his .500 record implies, and his profile is ideal against a Mets offense that has struggled to score: a sub-1 WHIP keeps runners off base, the strikeout-to-walk ratio is elite, and the lack of home run damage is critical against a New York lineup where Francisco Alvarez is the primary power threat.
Christian Scott is listed as the probable starter for New York, but he enters without a statistical line on the board, which adds meaningful uncertainty to the Mets’ side of the equation. Against a Twins lineup that has already put 119 runs on the board and features multiple established bats, a pitcher with a blank current line is tough to project. That uncertainty alone makes it hard to back the Mets even at near-even money.
Offensively, Minnesota has more established run producers in this matchup. Byron Buxton has 5 home runs and continues to profile as the Twins’ biggest game-changer, while Josh Bell has been the steadiest of the supporting bats with a .253 average, a .344 on-base percentage, a .422 slugging percentage, 3 home runs, and 15 RBI. That combination of on-base, power, and RBI production is exactly what a lineup needs to crack a probable starter with no prior line — Minnesota can work counts, create traffic, and capitalize if Scott leaves one over the plate.
The Mets have a couple of bats capable of changing a close game. Francisco Alvarez leads the featured New York hitters in both average and power with a .254 average, a .365 on-base percentage, a .476 slugging percentage, and 4 home runs, and Bo Bichette has contributed 9 RBI. Those two alone are enough to keep the Mets live, especially against a Twins bullpen that is dealing with its own injuries, but the lineup as a whole has not matched Minnesota’s overall scoring output this season.
Team pitching between the clubs is relatively close. Minnesota sits at a 3.99 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, while New York is at a 4.01 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. That closeness on the team side is one more reason to key on the starting pitcher edge instead of trying to play a larger spread: this game really comes down to whether the Mets can generate enough offense against Ryan and whether Scott can hold a deeper Twins lineup.
Injuries are also worth noting for both sides. Minnesota is missing relievers Cody Laweryson, Julian Merryweather, and Travis Adams, plus starter Cory Lewis, which could matter late if Ryan exits early. The Mets are dealing with Francisco Lindor day-to-day and also have Nate Lavender, Jorge Polanco, Joey Gerber, and A.J. Minter sidelined, which impacts both lineup depth and bullpen options. Given that the Mets are already the lesser run-producing team, losing any additional lineup piece only widens Minnesota’s advantage.
Betting Trends - MIN vs NYM
- Minnesota has scored 119 runs, compared to just 78 for New York.
- The Twins lead in batting average (.227 to .224), OBP (.326 to .288), slugging (.377 to .334), and home runs (28 to 17).
- Minnesota has dropped five of its last six games.
- The Mets are coming off a 12-game losing streak that was snapped in Wednesday’s 3-2 win in this series.
- Joe Ryan is 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, and only six walks in 27.1 innings.
- The Mets’ listed probable pitcher is Christian Scott, who enters without a current statistical line.
- Team pitching is close overall: Minnesota at 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, New York at 4.01 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
- Josh Bell has been steady for Minnesota at .253 with a .344 OBP, .422 slugging, 3 homers, and 15 RBI.
Key Injuries and Notes - MIN vs NYM
Minnesota: The Twins are without relievers Cody Laweryson, Julian Merryweather, and Travis Adams, plus starter Cory Lewis. That thins out the bullpen depth in a spot where Ryan’s exit timing becomes important in protecting a close lead.
New York: Francisco Lindor is listed day-to-day, and the Mets are also missing Nate Lavender, Jorge Polanco, Joey Gerber, and A.J. Minter. That combination affects both lineup depth and bullpen options against a Twins offense that has already shown more consistent scoring this season.
Twins vs Mets Moneyline and Total Picks
- Moneyline: Minnesota Twins (-116) — Ryan’s 0.88 WHIP, the stronger offense, and New York’s uncertainty at starter make the Twins the cleanest side on a near-coin-flip price.
- Total: Under 7.5 — Ryan’s profile and the Mets’ lower overall run production line up for a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction
Minnesota Twins 4, New York Mets 3. Bell drives in a key run against Scott early, Ryan works through the middle innings by limiting walks and hard contact, Alvarez keeps the Mets within striking distance with a solo home run, and Minnesota adds an insurance run late to win in a total that stays just under the number.
How to Bet Twins vs Mets
For a tight matchup like this one where the moneyline is close to a coin flip and the pitching edge favors the visitors, the cleanest structure is to take Minnesota on the moneyline at -116 and pair it with the Under 7.5 as a secondary play that keys directly off Ryan’s profile. If you do not have access to a legal online sportsbook in your state, social sportsbooks are a great way to still get action on this Twins-Mets matchup using sweepstakes-style play. Bettors who want the sharpest pricing on moneylines and alternate totals should compare numbers using the bet365 bonus code, which consistently offers competitive pricing on tight lines and flexible total markets that fit this exact type of play. For casual bettors who want to parlay Minnesota with the Under or with a Ryan strikeout prop, the fliff promo code is a simple way to get started with extra coins to build around the matchup. Line shopping matters most on the moneyline here, since the difference between -110 and -120 can be meaningful on a near-pick-em ticket before first pitch.
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