MLB Computer Picks Today: MLB AI Picks and Best F5 Bets for May 29, 2026
Use Code WWWC The MLB computer picks model took a small step back on Thursday, finishing 1-2 after regression-based overs on Texas and Minnesota failed to cash. Even so, the model remains a solid 6-3 over the last three slates and continues to identify value by focusing on one of the most predictable parts of baseball: starting pitching.
These MLB AI picks are built around First Five Innings markets because they remove much of the variance created by modern bullpens. Rather than relying on nine innings of reliever usage, inherited runners, and late-game matchup decisions, the model isolates starter-versus-offense matchups using offensive production, strikeout rates, power metrics, expected run prevention, and recent form.
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For May 29, the strongest card features one elite team-total under, one First Five under, and one offensive over. Here are today's MLB picks.
Athletics F5 Team Total Under 2.5 (-130)
This is the clearest pitcher-versus-offense mismatch on today’s board even in the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park.
The market appears to be pricing Carlos Rodón based on his 4.15 ERA, but the underlying profile shows a pitcher still performing at a more elite level.
Carlos Rodón Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 2.94 xERA
- 3.22 FIP
- 11.77 K/9
- 55.2% ground-ball rate
- 0.00 HR/9
- .267 BABIP
2025 Season
- 3.09 ERA
- 3.34 xERA
- 195.1 innings pitched
- 9.35 K/9
When the model blends multiple seasons together, Rodón grades much closer to a borderline top tier starter than a pitcher carrying a mid-4 ERA.
The matchup becomes even more attractive because Sacramento's offense has cooled considerably.
Athletics Offensive Trends
Season
- 100 wRC+
- .320 wOBA
- .327 OBP
Last 30 Days
- 105 wRC+
- .327 wOBA
Last 14 Days
- 91 wRC+
- .306 wOBA
The biggest issue for the A's is power. Against a pitcher generating strikeouts, ground balls, and weak contact, it becomes extremely difficult to manufacture three runs in just five innings.
To lose this wager, Sacramento likely needs multiple rallies or Rodón struggling with his command. Neither scenario appears particularly likely given the A's current form.
Phillies vs Dodgers F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
Many bettors automatically see the Dodgers and assume the over is the correct side.
The model sees something different: one of baseball's few starters capable of slowing down the league's best offense.
Zack Wheeler Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 1.67 ERA
- 3.15 xERA
- 2.22 FIP
- 1.91 BB/9
- 0.24 HR/9
2025 Season
- 2.71 ERA
- 2.48 xERA
- 11.73 K/9
The Dodgers remain the most dangerous lineup in baseball.
Dodgers Offensive Profile
Season
- 123 wRC+ (MLB-best)
- .348 wOBA
- .440 SLG
Last 14 Days
- 133 wRC+
- .363 wOBA
- .465 SLG
Despite those elite numbers, the projection still keeps Los Angeles below two First Five runs because Wheeler grades as one of the few true ace-level pitchers in baseball.
The under is also helped by Justin Wrobleski.
Justin Wrobleski Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 3.07 ERA
- 4.08 xERA
- 3.52 FIP
2025 Season
- 3.41 xERA
- 2.93 FIP
Wrobleski is not on Wheeler's level, but the model views him as a capable mid-rotation arm rather than an exploitable starter.
The most likely outcomes cluster around scores like:
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 3-1
Those score ranges comfortably stay below the posted total.
Braves Team F5 Total Over 2.5 (-115)
The best offensive position on today's board belongs to Atlanta.
The Braves have cooled recently, but the model is unwilling to completely ignore 2+ months of offensive production because of one slow stretch.
Braves Offensive Profile
Season
- 113 wRC+
- 77 home runs
- .432 slugging percentage
Last 14 Days
- 87 wRC+
The matchup against Chris Paddack is the primary reason this play grades so well.
Chris Paddack Key Metrics
2026 Season
- 6.86 ERA
- 4.31 xERA
- 4.44 FIP
- 1.33 HR/9
2025 Season
- 5.35 ERA
- 5.01 xERA
- 5.03 FIP
The profile remains vulnerable for one primary reason: home runs.
Paddack continues to allow damage when hitters elevate the baseball, and that becomes especially dangerous against an Atlanta lineup that still possesses above-average power throughout the order.
The game being played in Great American Ball Park only strengthens the case.
The park's hitter-friendly dimensions reward fly-ball power, which aligns perfectly with Atlanta's offensive strengths and Paddack's weaknesses.
The Braves only need three runs through five innings to cash this ticket. Against a pitcher carrying a 6.86 ERA, a 4.31 xERA, and ongoing home-run concerns, that remains one of the most attainable offensive targets on today's slate.
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