New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 5, 2025
In this Mets at Reds prediction, the Mets head to Cincinnati on Friday night to kick off a three-game series with the Reds in a matchup that could help decide the NL Wildcard race. The Mets and Reds are battling for the final playoff spot in the NL Wildcard race. The pitching matchup in the series opener will be Mets’ rookie righty Jonah Jong (1-0, 1.80) taking on Reds’ southpaw Andrew Abbott (8-5, 2.65). The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM EST. Read on for more in this Mets/Reds prediction, and grab our top MLB predictions to increase your bankroll!
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New York is pushing toward a playoff spot
The New York Mets have a chance to push closer to a wildcard spot with a strong weekend showing against the Reds in Cincinnati. The Mets come into this weekend’s set with a five-game cushion for the final spot heading into Wednesday afternoon’s series finale against the Tigers in Detroit. On Wednesday, the Mets closed out their three-game set in Detroit with a 6-2 loss to the AL Central Division-leading Tigers. Pete Alonso led the Mets’ offensive attack with a 3-for-4 day, including an RBI.
The Mets have seemingly righted the ship after a rough stretch in August that saw their lead slip to two games over the Reds for the final wildcard spot. They finished the month at 11-17 overall, following a 14-11 month of July. They will go with rookie righty Jonah Jong on Friday night, making his second major league start. Jong picked up the win in a 19-9 Mets victory over Miami. He allowed six hits in five innings of work. He gave up four runs, but only one was earned. He struck out six and didn’t walk a batter.
Key Injuries: SP Tylor Megill, RP Reed Garrett, and RP Yacksel Rios are out.
Reds hanging by a thread
The Reds made a brief push toward the playoffs in August, but things have subsided since then. The Reds head into Wednesday’s series finale with the Blue Jays in Cincinnati with a 70-69 record. The Reds have split the first two games of the series, winning the first game 5-4 before taking a 12-9 defeat on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the Reds fell to .500 after a 13-9 loss to the Blue Jays in Cincinnati. Reds’ pitching gave up 18 hits in the loss. Noelvi Marte went 2-for-5 with three RBI to lead the Reds’ offensive attack.
The Reds have played much better this season under first-year manager Terry Francona, but their run looks like it will come up short, barring a huge weekend against the Mets. They’ll need a clean sweep, starting with lefty Andrew Abbott on the mound Friday night. Abbott is 8-5 on the season in 24 starts, including 10 quality starts. He has given up 116 hits in 139 innings pitched and given up 15 home runs. He has an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 1.12. Abbott has walked 39 batters and struck out 125. The Reds have lost four of Abbott’s last five starts. He is 4-3 at home this season with an ERA of 2.11 in 14 starts.
Key Injuries: SP Nick Lodolo, RP Graham Ashcraft, and SP Wade Miley are out.
Mets vs. Reds Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for NY Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Reds ML (4 units)
The Reds have reached do-or-die levels heading into this series, with their hole growing bigger against the Mets. They are in a prime position to win game one, thanks to a large advantage on the mound. The veteran Abbott is 4-3 at home with an ERA of just 2.65. He takes on 22-year-old Tong, making just his second start of his career. Tong gave up six hits in five innings against the Marlins. He’ll also have to navigate his way through his first start at the Great American Ballpark, one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball. Abbott will keep the Mets at bay, and the Reds will pick up a much-needed win on Friday night.
Take the Reds with the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Mets vs. Reds
- Over (4 units)
Both teams are hitting the ball well lately. The Mets have gone over the number in four of their last five games. That run should continue playing at the Great American Ballpark this weekend. The Reds have gone over the number in four of their last five games as well. The two teams have combined for 48 runs in their last three games.
Take the over.
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