New York Mets at Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Saturday May 23 2026
Use Code WWWC New York (22-29) will look to even the series after dropping Friday's opener when they visit loanDepot park on Saturday afternoon to face Miami (23-29) in Game 2 of their three-game set at 4:10 PM ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Mets vs. Marlins prediction. Don't go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Freddy Peralta, 3-3, 3.10 ERA, will get the start for the Mets. The Marlins will counter with Max Meyer, 3-0, 3.21 ERA.
Mets Looking To Even The Series And Salvage A Road Trip
The Mets won 11 of their past 17 games heading into the series, including a 2-1 win over Washington on Thursday to salvage a split of their four-game series against the Nationals. A brutal mix of injuries and underperformance has mired New York in mediocrity well below preseason expectations, and the club is now in a battle for last place in the NL East.
The team has ranked among the league's worst offenses, placing 25th in hits, home runs, RBI, and batting average while ranking 24th in runs scored. However, Juan Soto has been the one constant in a lineup that has otherwise struggled, batting .292 with nine home runs, 20 RBI, and a .873 OPS through his first 35 games.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Soto finished hitless on Thursday but entered the series 12-for-31 (.387) with five homers and nine RBI over his previous eight games. Mark Vientos has led the Mets with six home runs and 22 RBI, while Bo Bichette drove in nine runs during the four-game Washington series — one-third of his season total — going 7-for-18 with three homers to raise his batting average to .225.
Peralta has gone at least five innings in eight of his nine starts this season and has picked up wins in back-to-back outings heading into Saturday's start. The Mets' ace carries a 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts across 49.1 innings this season, making him far and away the most reliable arm in New York's rotation. The two-time All-Star was acquired from Milwaukee this past offseason after going 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 204 strikeouts across 33 starts in 2025, finishing fifth in NL Cy Young voting.
Marlins Looking To Take The Series
The Marlins lost three of four against the Braves, falling by scores of 8-4, 9-1, and 9-3 after stunning Atlanta in the opener, and have now dropped 12 of their past 18 games. Friday's win pulled Miami to 23-29 and gave the Fish the series lead heading into Saturday.
The Marlins rank 13th in runs scored and sixth in batting average, and they lead the major leagues with 60 stolen bases. Shortstop Otto Lopez leads the team in batting average, wRC+ (144), and OPS (.870), slashing .342/.373/.487 on the season. Xavier Edwards is right behind him with a .316/.395/.484 slash line and a team-high 2.0 fWAR across 51 games. Liam Hicks leads the team with a .309 batting average, four home runs, and 18 RBI.
Meyer carries a 3.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 54:17 K:BB across 47.2 innings into Saturday's matchup. The 27-year-old right-hander has been carefully managed this season, not working beyond 5.1 innings in any start, but his results have been excellent thanks to a slider that generates whiffs at an elite rate. In his most recent outing against the Twins, Meyer allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks but struck out nine and earned the win with strong run support from the Miami offense.
Mets vs. Marlins Picks
Money Line Pick for Mets vs. Marlins
- New York Mets ML (4 Units)
The Mets get the edge here because Saturday's matchup is one of the most even pitching duels of the weekend, and New York's lineup — led by a scorching-hot Soto — is due for a breakout. Peralta has been arguably the best pitcher on either roster this season, going at least five innings in eight of nine starts and picking up wins in his last two outings. His elite strikeout rate and the ability to limit contact give the Mets a reliable floor in a ballpark that can play hitter-friendly when the winds blow out. Meyer has been excellent, but has been heavily pitch-count managed all season, meaning the Marlins will need their shaky bullpen to cover significant innings. The Marlins have lost five of their last six night games against NL opponents, and a day game against a team as dangerous as the Mets at the top of the order tips the balance toward New York. Take the Mets on the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Mets vs. Marlins
- Under 7.5 (4 Units)
Meyer has not allowed a home run in any of his last five starts, and his elite slider should neutralize a Mets lineup that struggles without power production from the middle of the order. Peralta's .207 opponent batting average this season is one of the best marks in the National League, and a Marlins offense that generates value through contact and stolen bases is exactly the type of lineup he handles best. The Marlins rank 28th in home runs, and with two power-suppressing starters on the mound and both bullpens better than their recent performances suggest, this shapes up as a low-scoring afternoon at loanDepot park. Take the Under.
Never Tried Winners and Whiners? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code DOLLAR
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
- Check out more MLB predictions
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
