New York Mets at Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction, Sunday September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the final day of the 2025 MLB regular season, and the Mets vs. Marlins game could carry massive postseason weight.
**This preview was written prior to the conclusion of Saturday's games.
The New York Mets find themselves e tied with Cincinnati in the standings, but the Reds hold the tiebreaker, so for New York, October hopes hinge on either a Reds stumble, and them handling business of their own.
Miami, already eliminated, entered this series with a chance to embrace the spoiler role, as they did in Friday's role.
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Mets can only blame themselves
The Mets entered Saturday at 82-78, fighting for survival in the Wild Card chase but stumbling when it mattered most. They’ve gone just 9-14 in September, and now maybe watching the postseason. The key scenarios are clear: if the Reds sweep Milwaukee, New York’s chances vanish; if the Reds lose, the Mets must still collect wins of their own. That’s where things get dicey.
Offensively, the Mets have been powerful, ranking second in MLB in home runs over their last 26 games and top-10 in OPS. But their pitching staff has collapsed, posting a 5.45 ERA in that stretch, ranking 29th out of 30 teams.
With their Sunday starter unannounced, uncertainty looms large. In a game they absolutely must win, the question is whether their arms can survive long enough to allow their lineup a chance to carry them.
Marlins can help be spoilers
At 78-82, the Marlins may have no say in the postseason race for themselves, but they hold the Mets’ destiny in their hands. Miami has gone 13-10 in September, riding steady play even without pressure.
Edward Cabrera will get the ball, bringing a 7-7 record, 3.66 ERA, and 143 strikeouts this year. His home dominance stands out: a 5-3 record and 2.91 ERA at loanDepot Park have made him a tough matchup on his turf. Crbrera does have a shaky history against the Mets, as in nine career appearances, he’s been rocked for a 5.80 ERA and only one win. Still, the Marlins’ late-season push shows fight, and their bullpen has steadied despite the staff posting a 4.86 ERA over the same 26-game span the Mets have slumped.
Mets vs Marlins Predictions
Money Line Pick for Mets vs. Marlins
- Marlins ML (4 units)
The clinching math paints a clear picture: Reds wins leave the Mets locked out, but losses by Cincinnati could open the door—as long as the Mets find a win. That pressure has crushed New York before, and their September record paints a similar story. The offense can put up home runs, but the lack of stable pitching, combined with an unannounced starter, is too much uncertainty in a must-win contest. Miami, meanwhile, has already struck once and can play free of expectation. Cabrera’s career struggles versus New York add some risk, but his 2025 home dominance tilts the edge toward another solid outing. Expect the Marlins to seize the spoiler role with a tight but decisive win, pushing the Mets out of October.
Total Pick for Mets vs. Marins
- OVER (5 units)
Both clubs’ pitching woes point toward offense having the final say, with the Mets’ 5.45 ERA and the Marlins’ 4.86 ERA over the past 26 games. Offensively, each team finds itself among the top-10 in OPS during this span, with New York flashing elite power. Cabrera’s home splits hint at control, but his poor history versus the Mets leaves cracks. With postseason pressure often amplifying mistakes and bullpens tired in game 162, the over feels like the strongest angle here.
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