New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Mets visit the Atlanta Braves on Sunday at 12:30 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. New York is 36-52 and is fifth in the NL East, while Atlanta is 51-35 and is first in the NL East. The Braves opened this series with a 5-3 victory on Friday, while the Mets have dropped four of their last five games. Atlanta has split its last five contests but continues to lead the division entering the series finale. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.
New York Mets Looking to Avoid Another Series Loss
New York has struggled at the plate throughout the season, ranking 27th in MLB with a .230 team batting average. The Mets have scored 349 runs while collecting 677 hits, 99 home runs, a .298 on-base percentage, and a .375 slugging percentage through 88 games. Juan Soto continues to lead the offense with a .297 batting average, 18 home runs, 41 RBI, and a .406 on-base percentage. Bo Bichette has added a team-high 89 hits with 47 RBI, while Carson Benge has contributed 10 home runs and is batting .259. The Mets have scored just 12 runs during their last five games and need more production throughout the lineup.
New York has received respectable production from its pitching staff despite its record. The Mets rank 13th in MLB with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP while holding opponents to a .233 batting average. Mets pitchers have recorded 804 strikeouts while allowing 311 walks and 85 home runs.
Injuries: Jorge Polanco (60-Day IL), Luis Robert Jr. (60-Day IL), Justin Hagenman (60-Day IL), Dedniel Núñez (60-Day IL), Clay Holmes (60-Day IL).
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Atlanta Braves Looking to Extend Their Division Lead
Atlanta has remained one of the National League's most balanced offensive clubs, batting .246 while ranking ninth in MLB. The Braves have scored 408 runs with 714 hits, 108 home runs, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage. Matt Olson leads the lineup with 22 home runs and 54 RBI while batting .273. Michael Harris II is hitting .296, Ozzie Albies continues to provide production in the middle of the order, and the Braves have consistently received contributions throughout the lineup. Atlanta has scored 29 runs over its last five games despite winning only twice during that stretch.
Atlanta has complemented that offense with one of the league's strongest pitching staffs. The Braves rank third in MLB with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .227 batting average. Atlanta pitchers have struck out 732 batters while issuing only 282 walks, helping the club maintain first place in the NL East. Consistent pitching has been a major reason the Braves continue to win despite occasional offensive slumps.
Injuries: Kyle Farmer (10-Day IL), Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-Day IL), Sean Murphy (60-Day IL), Robert Suarez (15-Day IL), AJ Smith-Shawver (60-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
New York Mets – Nolan McLean
McLean is 5-5 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 95.1 innings this season. He has allowed 71 hits while striking out 113 batters and walking 36. McLean has consistently given New York a chance to compete whenever he takes the mound.
Atlanta Braves – Martin Perez
Perez is 6-5 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 77.0 innings. He has surrendered only 59 hits while recording 61 strikeouts and issuing 30 walks. Perez has delivered steady results throughout the season and has helped stabilize Atlanta's rotation.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Game Pick
- Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has the advantage with the more productive lineup and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Braves rank third in MLB in ERA while the Mets continue to struggle offensively, batting just .230 as a team. Perez has been reliable throughout the season, and Atlanta's lineup, led by Olson and Harris, has enough depth to capitalize on scoring opportunities. New York has lost four of its last five games, while the Braves have already taken the series opener and remain in first place in the NL East. Atlanta has the stronger overall matchup and is the play.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick
- Under
McLean and Perez have both produced solid seasons, and each enters this matchup with a WHIP close to 1.15. The Mets have struggled to generate consistent offense, averaging fewer than four runs per game, while Atlanta's pitching staff ranks among the league leaders in ERA and opponent batting average. With two dependable starters and New York continuing to have difficulty producing runs, expect scoring to remain limited. The under is the stronger play in this matchup.
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