New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 3 2026
Use Code WWWC Christian Scott gives New York the pitching edge, but Atlanta’s bullpen and both slumping offenses point toward a tight series opener.
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves open a four-game National League East series at Truist Park on Friday night. New York has lost 10 of its last 12 games, while Atlanta has dropped 14 of its last 19 after allowing seven runs during the seventh inning of Thursday’s 11-5 loss to St. Louis.
Scott returns for his second start since recovering from a right hip impingement, while Holmes moves back into Atlanta’s rotation after producing four scoreless innings from the bullpen. This preview examines the current odds, injuries, recent form, pitching matchup, predictions, and top MLB player props for Friday’s Mets vs Braves game.
Best Available Odds for Mets vs Braves
The best available moneyline lists the New York Mets at +104 and the Atlanta Braves at -106. Bettors targeting the run line can take New York +1.5 at approximately -182 or Atlanta -1.5 at approximately +158. The standard total has reached 9.5 runs, with the Over available near +103 and the Under priced around -124.
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Game Info
The Mets and Braves will play Friday, July 3, 2026, at 7:15 PM EDT. The game will take place at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised through WPIX and BravesVision. Christian Scott and Grant Holmes are the confirmed starting pitchers.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview
New York enters Friday at 36-51 after losing two of three games in Toronto. The Mets were defeated 2-1 in the opener, recovered with a 3-0 victory behind Nolan McLean, and then lost the finale 9-3 after Freddy Peralta surrendered five runs over four innings.
The Mets scored only seven runs during the series, with six coming through home runs. They went hitless in 17 plate appearances with runners in scoring position and left 17 runners on base. Dating back to the previous series against Philadelphia, New York is 2-for-25 with runners in scoring position over its last four games.
That inability to convert traffic has become the defining weakness of the offense. The Mets still have several hitters capable of producing one decisive swing, but they have struggled to extend innings through consecutive hits or productive contact.
Francisco Lindor has provided one of the few encouraging developments. He homered twice during the Toronto series, including a ninth-inning solo shot Wednesday, and has now hit four home runs despite missing significant time earlier in the season.
Lindor’s return gives New York another established hitter near Juan Soto and Bo Bichette. The Mets had been forced to lean too heavily on Soto while Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, and other important hitters were unavailable.
Soto remains the lineup’s most productive position player. He entered July leading the Mets in position-player value and ranked among the National League leaders in slugging percentage. His patience also matters against Holmes, who issued five walks during his most recent start.
Soto is hitless in four previous at-bats against Holmes, although that sample is too small to outweigh his season-long production. Holmes has allowed a .336 expected weighted on-base average and a 44.7% hard-hit rate, giving elite left-handed hitters a realistic path to damaging contact.
Bichette gives New York another dangerous right-handed hitter behind Soto. His season began poorly, but his production improved during June, and he already demonstrated his ability to attack Atlanta pitching by hitting two home runs with six RBIs during the Mets’ 7-5 victory on June 12.
Carson Benge has also become an important source of power. The rookie hit his 10th home run during Wednesday’s loss in Toronto and has homered in three of New York’s last four road games as an underdog.
Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens each homered during Tuesday’s 3-0 victory. Alvarez has recorded a hit in 10 consecutive road appearances following a day out of the starting lineup, while his power gives New York another hitter capable of clearing a total-bases prop with one swing.
Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, A.J. Ewing, Tyrone Taylor, and Jared Young complete a lineup that contains more talent than its recent run production suggests. The larger problem is sequencing. New York can produce isolated walks and home runs without consistently connecting those events into multi-run innings.
The Mets remain without Marcus Semien, who is expected to miss four to six weeks because of a severe left hip flexor strain. Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco have begun rehabilitation assignments but are not ready to return, while Clay Holmes remains out with a fractured right fibula.
Joey Gerber is also dealing with a recurring finger blister after leaving Wednesday’s game. Tylor Megill and Reed Garrett will miss the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, further reducing New York’s pitching depth.
The available bullpen has remained one of the Mets’ stronger units. Luke Weaver completed June with 24 consecutive scoreless innings, while Devin Williams, Huascar Brazoban, Brooks Raley, and the other available relievers give New York several late-game options when the starters keep the score close.
Atlanta enters Friday at 50-35 despite enduring its worst stretch of the season. The Braves started June with five wins in seven games before losing 12 of their final 16, finishing the month 9-14.
The decline has continued into July. Atlanta split the first two games against St. Louis before allowing a seven-run seventh inning Thursday. The Braves led 5-3 before Tyler Kinley and the bullpen allowed the Cardinals to send 11 hitters to the plate during the decisive rally.
Atlanta has now lost 14 of 19 games. The slump has reduced what was once a 10.5-game divisional advantage to a much more vulnerable position, creating additional pressure on a team already dealing with several important injuries.
The offense was the least productive unit in baseball during June. Atlanta finished last in weighted runs created plus at 65, scored a major-league-low 77 runs, hit only 19 home runs, and recorded a .599 OPS.
Thursday’s first inning briefly suggested that the offense might be recovering. After Jordan Walker gave St. Louis a 3-0 lead, Atlanta responded with five runs through Mauricio Dubón, Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski, and Jim Jarvis. The Braves did not score again over the final eight innings.
Matt Olson remains the lineup’s most dependable power hitter. He entered July as Atlanta’s most valuable position player and continues to give the Braves a left-handed hitter capable of changing the game with one elevated pitch.
Olson has struck out in all three previous plate appearances against Scott. That matchup favors the Mets starter, although three at-bats do not provide enough evidence to assume another hitless night.
Michael Harris II has been Atlanta’s most consistent all-around hitter. He has produced a 127 weighted runs created plus across approximately one full season of plate appearances since the middle of 2025 and remains one of the lineup’s strongest contact and extra-base threats.
Harris has also recorded three hits in three previous at-bats against Scott. The matchup gives Atlanta one hitter with a demonstrated ability to handle Scott’s fastball and sweeper, although the sample remains extremely limited.
Ozzie Albies produced a home run and two RBIs during Wednesday’s 5-1 victory over St. Louis. Albies has remained one of Atlanta’s more reliable hitters during the team’s broader slump and gives the Braves a switch-hitter capable of attacking Scott from the left side.
Austin Riley’s season has been considerably less dependable. His production collapsed during June, and he recently endured an 0-for-17 stretch before recording an RBI single Wednesday. Riley still possesses enough power to punish a mistake, but his current form does not justify treating Atlanta’s lineup like the elite group its names suggest.
Dubón has supplied useful contact and defensive versatility. He recorded Atlanta’s only hit during a 5-0 loss to San Francisco on June 27 and drove in a run during Thursday’s five-run first inning.
Drake Baldwin, Dominic Smith, Yastrzemski, Jarvis, Jorge Mateo, and the remaining hitters give Atlanta enough depth to challenge Scott. The lineup remains substantially weaker without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Sean Murphy.
Acuña is recovering from a Grade 1 hamstring strain and is considered unlikely to return before the All-Star break. Murphy is expected to remain out through at least the end of July because of a fractured finger.
Atlanta’s rotation has also been damaged by injuries to Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Joey Wentz. Strider is resting for at least one month because of right elbow inflammation, while Schwellenbach is attempting to return from elbow surgery later in the season.
The Braves still possess one of baseball’s strongest bullpens despite Thursday’s collapse. Atlanta entered July with a 2.76 bullpen ERA and a 3.44 fielding-independent pitching mark, with its primary late-game relievers producing dominant season-long results.
Robert Suarez is now unavailable because of forearm inflammation, weakening the preferred late-game structure. Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes, Tyler Kinley, and Reynaldo López remain capable options, although Kinley’s difficult Thursday appearance creates another small workload concern.
The weather creates the strongest argument against assuming a completely suppressed offensive game. Temperatures are expected to remain near 89 degrees around first pitch after reaching the mid-90s during the afternoon. Warm conditions can improve ball carry at Truist Park, although the absence of significant evening rain risk should allow both starters to follow their normal routines.
Pitching Matchup
New York will start Scott, who enters at 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts across 45 innings. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts.
Scott returned from the injured list against Philadelphia on June 27 after missing 15 days because of a right hip impingement. He allowed two earned runs on three hits and two walks over 4.1 innings while striking out six.
The right-hander required 82 pitches to record 13 outs, but he threw 54 strikes and did not show obvious physical limitations. Friday’s appearance should allow the Mets to extend his workload beyond the shortened return outing if his efficiency improves.
Scott owns a 3.93 fielding-independent pitching mark, which remains respectable but less dominant than his ERA. His 53 strikeouts against 21 walks demonstrate legitimate swing-and-miss ability alongside occasional command problems.
His sweeper remains the most important pitch in the matchup. The breaking ball can generate strikeouts against Atlanta’s right-handed hitters while moving away from Olson and the other left-handed bats when Scott locates it below the strike zone.
Scott struck out six hitters during his return despite working only 4.1 innings. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances, making his current 4.5-strikeout prop one of the strongest individual markets.
Atlanta can increase Scott’s pitch count by refusing to chase. Holmes is not the only starter in this matchup with walk concerns, and Scott has issued approximately 4.2 walks per nine innings.
Harris represents the most difficult individual matchup, while Olson’s previous strikeouts give Scott another path to controlling the middle of the order. Albies, Riley, Baldwin, and Dubón must force Scott into the strike zone rather than allowing him to reach favorable sweeper counts.
New York does not need Scott to complete seven innings. Five or six competitive frames would allow the Mets to use Weaver, Williams, Raley, Brazoban, and the remaining bullpen without exposing the weakest portion of the staff.
Atlanta counters with Holmes, who enters at 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 69 strikeouts. The surface numbers describe an average starter, but his recent role and underlying contact quality create considerable uncertainty.
Holmes had failed to work deeply in three consecutive starts before temporarily moving to the bullpen. Those appearances lasted 3.2 innings, two innings, and 4.2 innings, forcing Atlanta to cover large portions of each game with relief pitching.
His most recent start came against San Diego on June 22. Holmes allowed only one run on three hits over 4.2 innings, but he walked five hitters and required enough pitches that Atlanta removed him before completing the fifth.
The Braves then used Holmes in relief against San Francisco on June 27. He responded with four scoreless innings, allowing one hit without issuing a walk while striking out four.
That performance convinced Atlanta to return him to the rotation. Holmes should be capable of providing approximately five innings after throwing four during the relief outing, but expecting a normal seven-inning starter’s workload would be aggressive.
His underlying contact numbers are concerning. Holmes has allowed a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, a 44.7% hard-hit rate, and a .336 expected weighted on-base average. Each number suggests that opposing hitters have produced better contact than his 3.96 ERA implies.
The Mets have enough left-handed power to exploit those weaknesses. Soto, Lindor, Baty, Benge, and Young can force Holmes to work from the more difficult side of his platoon profile, while Bichette and Alvarez provide right-handed extra-base power.
Holmes has handled the Mets well in limited previous work, posting a 2.00 ERA across two career starts. He remains winless in those appearances, however, and New York won two of three games when these teams met at Citi Field in June.
The starting-pitching advantage belongs to New York. Scott has produced the better strikeout profile, lower ERA, and more consistent results. Holmes’ four scoreless relief innings were encouraging, but they do not erase his previous control and workload problems.
Game Thesis: Scott gives New York the clearer starting-pitching advantage, while Holmes’ hard-contact profile and recent inability to work deeply create opportunities for Soto, Bichette, Lindor, and Alvarez. Atlanta owns the stronger bullpen and home-field position, but its offense finished last in baseball in several June categories and has lost Acuña and Murphy. The warm conditions increase home-run potential, but both lineups have struggled to produce sustained rallies. A projected 5-4 Mets victory supports New York on the moneyline, the Mets +1.5 run line, and Under 9.5.
Best Bet - Total Pick: Under 9.5 (-124)
Under 9.5 is the strongest wager because the line provides enough room for both teams to score four runs without requiring either starter to dominate.
New York scored only seven runs across three games in Toronto and failed to record a hit in 17 opportunities with runners in scoring position. Six of those seven runs came through home runs, demonstrating how dependent the current offense has become on isolated extra-base contact.
Atlanta’s offensive form has been even worse over the larger sample. The Braves finished June last in weighted runs created plus, OPS, home runs, and total runs.
Scott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts, while Holmes just produced four scoreless innings after moving temporarily to the bullpen. Both pitchers have enough swing-and-miss ability to prevent every baserunner from becoming a run.
The bullpens also support a lower score. Atlanta owns one of baseball’s strongest relief groups despite Thursday’s collapse, while New York has several effective late-game arms and received a prolonged scoreless run from Weaver during June.
The warm weather creates the primary danger. A pair of early home runs could force both teams away from the preferred pitching plan and quickly create a more open game.
The 9.5 number still provides meaningful protection. A 5-4 final score remains below the total, while an alternative Under nine would push at that same result.
Moneyline Pick: New York Mets (+104)
New York is the preferred moneyline side because Scott provides the most dependable starting-pitching profile at a plus-money price.
Scott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 80% of his starts and recorded six strikeouts during a shortened return from the injured list. Holmes has not completed five innings in any of his last four appearances, including the four-inning relief performance.
The Mets have also demonstrated that they can compete with Atlanta despite their poor overall record. New York won two of three games when the teams met in June, including a 7-5 victory powered by Bichette and Soto.
Atlanta’s bullpen and home record prevent this from becoming a large wager. The Braves remain 14 games above .500 and possess a significant late-game advantage whenever they enter the seventh inning with a lead.
The near-even price allows bettors to back the better starter without paying for New York’s poor season record. Scott should keep the Mets competitive long enough for Soto, Bichette, Lindor, and the bullpen to decide the game.
Top Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Braves
Christian Scott Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115): Scott has recorded at least five strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances and produced six over 4.1 innings during his return against Philadelphia. Atlanta’s offense posted the lowest weighted runs created plus in baseball during June, and Olson has struck out in all three previous plate appearances against Scott. The Mets starter does not need to complete six innings if his sweeper continues generating swings outside the strike zone.
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+111): Soto remains New York’s most productive hitter and ranks among the National League leaders in slugging percentage. Holmes has allowed a 44.7% hard-hit rate and a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, creating a favorable matchup for Soto’s combination of plate discipline and power. Soto can clear this prop with one double, triple, or home run, while two singles provide another path at a plus-money price.
Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106): Harris has recorded three hits in three previous at-bats against Scott and has produced a 127 weighted runs created plus across approximately one full season of plate appearances. Scott’s overall profile remains strong, but Harris is the Atlanta hitter most capable of attacking him through both contact and extra-base power. One double or two singles would clear the line at a near-even return.
Prediction: New York Mets 5, Atlanta Braves 4
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