New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday April 17 2026
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Friday afternoon baseball gets a whole lot more interesting when a team in freefall meets a squad quietly building momentum, and that is exactly the setup at Wrigley Field as New York arrives on a brutal eight-game losing streak. Our MLB picks are zeroing in on this 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch between the 7-12 Mets and the 9-9 Cubs, where a stark pitching mismatch, lineup injuries, and a growing gap in form all point toward one clear side. If you are looking for where the value is on today's board, read on.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Cubs -1.5
- Total Pick: Over 10.5
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 8, Mets 5
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline (Open) | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | +113 | +1.5 | 10.5 |
| Chi. Cubs | -136 | -1.5 | 10.5 |
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bruce Marshall | +5,640.00 |
| 2 |  Bryan Power | +4,424.00 |
| 3 |  Steve Seagrave | +1,815.00 |
| 4 |  Sniper Wes | +1,392.00 |
| 5 |  Joe Duffy | +1,279.00 |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline (Current) | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | +119 | +1.5 | 10.5 |
| Chi. Cubs | -143 | -1.5 | 10.5 |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | NY Mets | Chi. Cubs | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/16 | 10:51:44 PM | +119 | -143 | NYM 75%, NYM 50% |
| 04/16 | 09:40:41 PM | +113 | -136 | CHC 100%, CHC 100% |
| 04/16 | 08:30:28 PM | +119 | -143 | CHC 100%, CHC 100% |
| 04/16 | 06:52:37 PM | +113 | -136 | CHC 100%, CHC 100% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17 | 01:00:43 AM | 10½ -112 | 10½ -108 | OV 89%, OV 50% |
| 04/16 | 11:43:58 PM | 10½ -115 | 10½ -105 | OV 90%, OV 60% |
| 04/16 | 11:39:15 PM | 10½ -118 | 10½ -102 | OV 90%, OV 60% |
| 04/16 | 10:58:58 PM | 10½ -115 | 10½ -105 | UN 70%, OV 50% |
| 04/16 | 09:18:33 PM | 10½ -110 | 10½ -110 | — |
Mets vs Cubs Key Matchups and Handicap
The single biggest factor in this game is the pitching matchup, and it leans heavily toward Chicago. Edward Cabrera takes the hill for the Cubs at 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and 13 strikeouts across 16.2 innings. He has been efficient, commanding and hard to square up. Kodai Senga gets the ball for New York and the numbers tell a very different story: 0-2, a 7.07 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in just 14.0 innings. The strikeout volume confirms that his stuff is still there, but the ratios suggest he is running into trouble deep in counts and allowing too much hard contact and walks to be trusted in a road start.
Offensively, Chicago looks like the steadier and deeper side heading into Friday. Nico Hoerner is setting the tone at the top of the order, hitting .324 with a .410 OBP and 18 RBI, which is extraordinary production from the leadoff spot. Dansby Swanson has already hit four home runs on the year and Ian Happ has matched that total, giving the Cubs genuine middle-of-the-order pop. Add in the recently returned Seiya Suzuki, who gives the lineup another capable bat and more depth than New York can currently match, and Chicago's offense looks well-positioned to do damage against a starter who has not yet found consistent command.
New York still has names that command respect, particularly Francisco Alvarez, who leads the Mets in power metrics with four home runs and remains one of the more dangerous individual matchup breakers in this lineup. The problem is what surrounds him. Juan Soto remains out with a right calf strain, removing the one player who could have changed the tone of an at-bat on his own. Jorge Polanco is dealing with left Achilles bursitis and is a legitimate IL candidate, which further strips depth from the middle of the order. Jared Young is also out after surgery for a torn meniscus, compounding the absences at a time when the Mets can least afford them during an eight-game skid.
The Cubs have their own bullpen concerns, with Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton and Ethan Roberts all on the shelf, but that matters less when the starter is throwing like Cabrera has been. Chicago's rotation advantage is real, their everyday lineup is healthier, and they are the team riding positive momentum at home. The Mets have not found a way to win since early April and there is nothing in this matchup setup that looks likely to snap that streak on Friday.
Betting Trends - NYM and CHC
The line movement data tells an interesting story in this game. The Cubs opened drawing heavy public support, with CHC sitting at 100% of both dollars and tickets in the early overnight windows on April 16. As the morning approached, a shift appeared where the Mets briefly climbed to 75% of dollars at the 10:51 PM snapshot, which coincides with the line ticking from -136 out to -143 on the Cubs side. That move suggests sharp or late action pushing Chicago's price up despite some public money leaning Mets in that window.
On the total, the market has been even more emphatic. The over is pulling 89% to 90% of dollars across every logged snapshot, and the line has moved from a flat -110/-110 open toward -112 over / -108 under as of early Friday morning. When dollar percentages and ticket percentages both tilt heavily toward one side and the line still moves in that direction, the lean is worth respecting. Both starters have swing-and-miss stuff, but Senga's command issues and the Cubs' legitimate power threat make a higher-scoring game plausible even if Cabrera is locked in.
Key Injuries and Notes - NYM and CHC
New York Mets:
- Juan Soto - Out (right calf strain)
- Jorge Polanco - Questionable / IL candidate (left Achilles bursitis)
- Jared Young - Out (post-surgery, torn meniscus)
Chicago Cubs:
- Hunter Harvey - Out (IL, bullpen)
- Phil Maton - Out (IL, bullpen)
- Ethan Roberts - Out (IL, bullpen)
- Seiya Suzuki - Active (returned this week)
Mets vs Cubs ATS and Total Picks
Run Line Pick: Cubs -1.5 Chicago has the healthier lineup, the better starter on paper and the home-field edge. Cabrera's 1.62 ERA and tight command profile puts the Cubs in position to control this game from the first pitch, and Senga's road numbers against a disciplined lineup like Chicago's make it difficult to expect New York to stay close. The -1.5 is the right side here.
Total Pick: Over 10.5 Public money has been hammering the over across every line movement snapshot, and the juice has shifted accordingly. Both teams have power in the lineup, and while Cabrera looks sharp, Senga's command volatility opens the door for a crooked number inning. Chicago's offense alone, with Hoerner, Swanson and Happ all capable of going deep, can do enough damage to push this past the number even if the first few innings stay quiet. Take the over.
Final Score Prediction
Cubs 8, Mets 5
Cabrera navigates six-plus innings of solid work while Senga runs into command trouble in the middle frames. Chicago's lineup gets to him early and adds on late. The Mets scratch some runs together thanks to Alvarez and a short Cubs bullpen, but New York never truly threatens to take the lead. The final score hits over 10.5 and the Cubs cover -1.5 comfortably.
How to Bet
If you are ready to act on the Cubs -1.5 or the over 10.5 in this matchup, here is how to get your money down efficiently. First, if you are newer to sports betting or looking for low-risk ways to wager, check out the best social sportsbooks available right now, which let you participate without risking real cash while you build confidence in your process.
For those using regulated sportsbooks, one of the best ways to add value to a single-game wager is to claim an introductory offer before placing your bet. The bet365 bonus code unlocks a strong welcome promotion that can be applied directly to a Cubs run line or totals bet on Friday. If you prefer a sweepstakes-style platform with real prize potential and a lower barrier to entry, the fliff promo code gets you started with extra credits when you sign up today.
Whichever platform you choose, shopping line movement before locking in is critical on a game like this one. The Cubs moneyline has ticked from -136 to -143 and the over has moved from flat to juiced, so grabbing the best number available before first pitch at 2:20 p.m. ET on Friday is the play. Lock in early, get your number, and let Cabrera do the work.
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