New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday April 14 2026
Use Code WWWC Dodger Stadium has been a place of dominance for Los Angeles all season long, and Tuesday night's pitching matchup puts one of the most efficient starters in the National League on the mound for the home side in a game where the offensive gap between these two clubs has never been more pronounced. Our MLB picks for the New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers break down a matchup where the Dodgers' lineup quality, superior offensive production, and more reliable team-wide depth all justify a run-line play — and where a totals market that has been sending a relentless under signal since the moment this line first posted is making the clearest argument of any game on the Tuesday slate. Here is everything you need before first pitch at Dodger Stadium.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-112)
- Projected Final Score: Los Angeles 5, New York 2
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | +159 | Over 8 -105 |
| LA Dodgers | -194 | Under 8 -115 |
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | +169 | Over 7.5 -108 |
| LA Dodgers | -207 | Under 7.5 -112 |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | NY Mets | LA Dodgers | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/13 | 04:25:52 PM | +159 | -194 | NYM 100%, NYM 100% |
| 04/13 | 11:50:08 PM | +163 | -199 | LAD 89%, LAD 75% |
| 04/14 | 07:26:06 AM | +169 | -207 | LAD 70%, LAD 80% |
| 04/14 | 08:14:14 AM | +179 | -219 | LAD 59%, LAD 78% |
| 04/14 | 08:34:05 AM | +169 | -207 | LAD 56%, LAD 75% |
| 04/14 | 08:43:18 AM | +179 | -219 | LAD 56%, LAD 75% |
| 04/14 | 08:43:20 AM | +169 | -207 | LAD 56%, LAD 75% |
| 04/14 | 08:43:24 AM | +179 | -219 | LAD 56%, LAD 75% |
| 04/14 | 09:57:28 AM | +169 | -207 | LAD 58%, LAD 72% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/13 | 04:25:52 PM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 | |
| 04/13 | 04:53:48 PM | 8 +102 | 8 -122 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/13 | 05:25:33 PM | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -106 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/13 | 05:25:49 PM | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -109 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/13 | 05:26:05 PM | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -106 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/13 | 05:26:47 PM | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/13 | 07:48:33 PM | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/14 | 07:02:24 AM | 7.5 -108 | 7.5 -112 | OV 52%, UN 67% |
| 04/14 | 08:58:40 AM | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 | UN 66%, UN 60% |
| 04/14 | 09:57:28 AM | 7.5 -108 | 7.5 -112 | UN 95%, UN 67% |
Mets vs Dodgers Key Matchups and Handicap
The April 14 meeting between the Mets and Dodgers at Dodger Stadium is a classic spot where the favorite is justified, and the totals movement around this game tells one of the more dramatic under stories on the Tuesday MLB board. Los Angeles enters with the better team across every meaningful category, and the combination of Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound and a Mets offense missing its most dangerous bat makes the run-line case for the Dodgers one of the cleaner plays on the slate.
Yamamoto brings the steadier résumé into Tuesday's matchup. He enters at 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and just two walks over 18 innings — a walk rate so low it borders on extraordinary for a pitcher logging that kind of strikeout volume. When a starter is combining a 0.89 WHIP with minimal free passes, the opposing lineup needs elite individual contributors performing at peak capacity to generate sustained run-scoring rallies. New York is not in that position right now, and Yamamoto's profile aligns perfectly with the run-line and under cases simultaneously.
Nolan McLean has also been impressive for New York and should not be dismissed. He enters at 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts in 16.2 innings — a WHIP that is actually tighter than Yamamoto's and reflects a pitcher who has been genuinely sharp through the early part of the 2026 season. The case for Los Angeles on the run line is not a pure fade of McLean — it is a recognition that the Dodgers' lineup quality gives them a significantly higher run-scoring ceiling than the Mets can match even against a sharp opposing starter.
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The team-level offensive gap between these two clubs entering Tuesday is one of the widest on the entire Tuesday slate. Los Angeles is batting .289 as a club with 95 runs and 29 home runs, while New York sits at .230 with 62 runs and 13 home runs. That separation in team average, runs scored, and home run production reflects a Dodgers offense that is operating at a fundamentally different level than what the Mets have been able to generate through the first weeks of the season. Monday's 4-0 Dodgers win extended the Mets' skid and provided the most recent confirmation of that gap in real-game conditions.
Individually, Los Angeles has been producing from multiple contributors at once. Andy Pages has been one of the most productive individual hitters in the National League through the early season, entering with a .417 average, five home runs, and 20 RBI in the current game snapshot — numbers that reflect a player operating at an elite level. Shohei Ohtani has already hit five home runs, providing the kind of transformative middle-of-the-order threat that changes how opposing pitchers and lineups approach every inning. The Dodgers' top of the order remains dangerous even without being fully healthy, and that depth of production at multiple lineup spots is the primary driver of the run-line value.
The Mets have individual contributors capable of generating moments, and those contributors cannot be dismissed entirely. Francisco Alvarez has hit four home runs, and Luis Robert Jr. is batting .300, giving New York legitimate power and contact depth in the lineup. Bo Bichette leads the matchup snapshot with nine RBI, providing middle-of-the-order production that makes New York a threat to score in any inning. However, the Mets have not produced consistently enough as a unit to trust against a pitcher of Yamamoto's caliber, and the absence of their most dangerous offensive weapon further limits the ceiling of what this offense can accomplish on Tuesday night.
The injury picture reinforces the lean toward Los Angeles. New York is without Juan Soto, who is sidelined with a right calf strain — an absence that has clearly lowered the ceiling of the Mets' lineup and removed their most complete offensive contributor from the equation. The Mets are also thin on the pitching side with A.J. Minter out and several longer-term bullpen injuries still in place. Los Angeles has its own notable absences, with Mookie Betts sidelined by a right oblique strain, Tommy Edman recovering from ankle surgery, Blake Snell on the injured list with shoulder fatigue, and Ben Casparius newly shelved with shoulder inflammation. These are real losses for the Dodgers. However, Los Angeles has handled those absences better because of the organizational depth that allows contributors like Pages to step into significant roles and produce immediately.
The totals movement is the most decisive signal in this game and one of the most dramatic sequences on the entire Tuesday slate. The line opened at 8 with the under carrying juice at -115. Within approximately 28 minutes of posting, 100 percent of both money and ticket action came in on the under, the juice flipped to under -122 and over +102, and the total immediately dropped a half run to 7.5. That drop from 8 to 7.5 on unanimous under pressure within the first half hour of the line being posted is as sharp a signal as any game will produce. The under has drawn 100 percent of both money and ticket action at multiple consecutive checkpoints through the evening and into the morning window, with 95 percent under money at the most recent checkpoint. Back the signal that has been unanimous since the line first opened.
Betting Trends - NYM and LAD
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto enters at 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and just two walks over 18 innings, giving Los Angeles the superior command profile in this starting-pitcher matchup.
- Nolan McLean enters at 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP through 16.2 innings, giving New York a sharp arm but not enough lineup support to compensate for the team-wide offensive gap.
- Los Angeles is batting .289 as a team with 95 runs and 29 home runs, compared with New York at .230, 62 runs, and 13 home runs.
- The Dodgers won Monday's series opener 4-0, extending the Mets' skid and reinforcing the offensive quality gap in real-game conditions.
- Andy Pages leads the Dodgers' matchup snapshot with a .417 average, five home runs, and 20 RBI — one of the most productive individual outputs in the National League.
- Shohei Ohtani has hit five home runs for Los Angeles, providing the transformative middle-of-the-order threat that anchors the Dodgers' run-scoring ceiling.
- Juan Soto is absent for New York with a right calf strain, removing the Mets' most complete offensive contributor and lowering their lineup ceiling significantly.
- The total dropped from 8 to 7.5 within 28 minutes of opening on 100 percent under action, one of the fastest and most decisive line moves on the Tuesday slate.
- The under drew 100 percent of both money and ticket action at every checkpoint from the opening through multiple consecutive overnight entries before holding at 95 percent under money at current.
- The Dodgers' moneyline climbed from -194 at open to as high as -219 through the morning window before settling at -207 at current, reflecting consistent LAD money throughout.
Key Injuries and Notes - NYM and LAD
- Juan Soto (NYM) - IL, Right Calf Strain: The Mets' most complete offensive contributor is sidelined with a calf strain, removing the player most capable of generating sustained offensive production against an elite starter like Yamamoto.
- A.J. Minter (NYM) - Out: The bullpen arm is unavailable for New York, reducing the Mets' late-game relief depth and compounding the pitching attrition on the staff.
- Additional Bullpen Injuries (NYM): New York remains thin in the relief corps with several longer-term bullpen injuries still in place, limiting the depth available behind McLean if the starter exits early.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) - IL, Right Oblique Strain: One of the Dodgers' most important contributors is sidelined, reducing Los Angeles's top-of-the-order depth and defensive versatility.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) - Recovering, Ankle Surgery: Still working back from ankle surgery, limiting Edman's availability and affecting the Dodgers' lineup construction options.
- Blake Snell (LAD) - IL, Shoulder Fatigue: On the injured list with shoulder fatigue, removing a significant rotation arm from Los Angeles's available starting depth.
- Ben Casparius (LAD) - IL, Shoulder Inflammation: Newly placed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, adding to the Dodgers' pitching depth concerns despite the team's ability to absorb these losses through organizational depth.
Mets vs Dodgers ATS and Total Picks
- Run Line Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 — Yamamoto has been efficient enough to control this game, the Mets' offense is missing too much punch without Soto against a pitcher of this caliber, and the Dodgers' lineup with Pages and Ohtani anchoring the production gives Los Angeles the run-scoring ceiling to cover 1.5 runs. Monday's 4-0 win in the series opener confirms that this matchup script is playing out exactly as the numbers project.
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-112) — The under dropped a half run within 28 minutes of opening on unanimous sharp action, drew 100 percent of both money and ticket support at every overnight checkpoint, and is still drawing 95 percent under money at the most recent window. McLean and Yamamoto are both operating with sub-0.90 WHIPs, the Mets are missing their most dangerous bat, and this game projects as a 5-2 type of result rather than a high-scoring affair. Back the most decisive market signal on Tuesday's slate.
Final Score Prediction
Yamamoto's command profile and minimal walk rate give the Dodgers the starting-pitcher foundation to control this game from the first inning, while Los Angeles's lineup depth through Pages and Ohtani provides the run-scoring ceiling needed to cover the run line against a sharp but unsupported McLean. The Mets will generate moments — Alvarez, Robert, and Bichette are capable contributors — but not enough to overcome the gap between the two clubs without Soto in the lineup. Our projected final score is Los Angeles 5, New York 2.
How to Bet the Mets vs Dodgers
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