New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks - September 26, 2025

Major League Baseball action on Friday evening, we have a New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction ready to go. The Mets have folded down the stretch, but they lead the Reds by 1 game for the 3rd wildcard slot in the National League. The Marlins have been out of the race for a while and they come in with a 77-82 record. Can the Mets keep their playoff hopes alive? Read on to see our Mets vs Marlins prediction.

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Mets Lead Wildcard Race By 1 Game

The Mets remain in the thick of the playoff race, clinging to one of the final National League Wild Card slots as they push through the season’s final stretch. Their latest win — an 8–5 victory over Chicago — kept them ahead in that fight, buoyed by homers from Brett Baty and Francisco Lindor and another shut-down relief effort. That result matters: New York currently sits at 82–77, and is firmly in playoff contention, and jockeying for Wild Card positioning. (Their run differential and late-season form will both be under scrutiny.)

On offense, the Mets carry a solid core of contributors. Pete Alonso leads the team in home runs and power, while Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo provide high on-base value and depth throughout the lineup. The Mets bat around .250+ as a team, and their ability to string hits into scoring innings has been key in tight games. Pitching-wise, New York is expected to send Brandon Sproat to the mound, who owns an ERA in the upper 3s and has shown strikeout upside. In relief, Edwin Díaz continues to be a dominant closer, locking down late innings. The bullpen depth and ability to protect leads have been central to their playoff push.

For New York to emerge with this one, they need Sproat to deliver length and stifle the Marlins’ hitters early. If he can keep Miami’s lineup from getting into rhythm, the Mets’ offense is capable of doing enough with their depth to push across runs. Controlling the basepaths and avoiding costly outs in scoring position will also be critical. On defense and in relief, they must be sharp — the Marlins will pounce on mistakes. If New York can protect a lead late, make strategic bullpen decisions, and get enough offense from their core, they’ll stay right in the thick of their postseason chase.

Marlins Look To Play Spoiler

The Marlins enter this matchup well out of the playoff picture and in the midst of a season that’s been defined by inconsistency. Their most recent outings have seen flashes of competitiveness, but they’ve lacked the depth to keep up against teams in contention. Offensively, the lineup is now centered around emerging contributors like Xavier Edwards, who leads the team in batting average, and Kyle Stowers (Injured), who provides much-needed power with his team-leading home run total. Otto López has been one of their most reliable run producers, driving in a steady number of RBIs, though the lineup as a whole has struggled to deliver consistently with runners in scoring position.

On the pitching side, Sandy Alcántara remains the most recognizable name, though he has struggled this season with a high ERA and too many outings derailed by one bad inning. The bullpen has been taxed all year, often forced into action earlier than desired, which has exposed their lack of depth and reliability in high-leverage spots.

For Miami to be competitive against the Mets, they need Alcántara to settle in quickly and give them length while limiting damage from New York’s power bats. Offensively, Edwards and López must find ways to get on base and set the table, while Stowers needs to come through with extra-base hits to keep pressure on the Mets’ staff. Clean defense is also critical, as Miami simply cannot afford to give away runs against a team fighting for a playoff spot.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pick

Mets vs Marlins Moneyline Pick

• Miami +121 (4 Units)

Backing Miami in this spot makes sense if Sandy Alcántara can finally string together a quality start. While his numbers this season haven’t lived up to his Cy Young form, Alcántara still has the stuff to frustrate opposing hitters when he’s commanding his fastball and changeup. Against a Mets lineup that has shown power but can also go quiet in stretches, a strong outing from Alcántara would give Miami the foundation they need to stay in front. Offensively, the Marlins aren’t flashy, but with Xavier Edwards providing steady contact, Otto López driving in runs, and Kyle Stowers supplying much-needed power, they have enough to scrape together support. Playing spoiler against a playoff contender also gives Miami a motivation edge to bring energy into this matchup.

The Mets are in the thick of the playoff race, and that pressure can cut both ways. Every game feels must-win, and when teams press in those spots, mistakes tend to pile up. Miami has an opportunity to capitalize on that urgency if they play disciplined baseball and make the Mets earn everything. If the Marlins’ bullpen can hold up late and their offense avoids going cold in key moments, Miami has a clear path to stealing this game. The formula is straightforward — get a solid start from Alcántara, take advantage of any cracks in the Mets’ approach, and lean on situational hitting to flip the script on a team with more to lose.

Mets vs Marlins Over/Under Pick

• Over 8 (5 Units)

The Over 8 is in play here because both pitching staffs have shown vulnerability, and the game sets up for scoring chances on both sides. Sandy Alcántara hasn’t been his sharpest this season, often giving up crooked innings when he loses command, while the Mets’ starter and bullpen have both had stretches of inconsistency that opponents have exploited. Miami’s bats, led by Xavier Edwards’ contact skills, Otto López’s run production, and Kyle Stowers’ power, can generate runs if they put pressure on early. On the other side, New York’s playoff-chasing lineup anchored by Pete Alonso and Juan Soto has the firepower to strike quickly. With neither bullpen a true lockdown unit, late-inning runs are very possible, making this matchup a strong candidate to push past the 8-run total.