New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Saturday, July 18, 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Mets visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday at 4:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Mets are 41-57 and sit fifth in the NL East after opening this series with a 4-1 win over the Phillies on Thursday. Philadelphia is 54-44 and second in the division, 2.5 games behind Atlanta, despite that loss. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.
New York Mets Looking to Build on Their Series Lead
The Mets are batting .233 with 402 runs, 768 hits, 115 home runs, a .303 on-base percentage, and a .382 slugging percentage. Juan Soto has led the offense with a .292 batting average, 21 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a .412 on-base percentage, while Bo Bichette has collected a team-high 97 hits. Carson Benge is batting .263 with 11 home runs, and Francisco Alvarez has added 11 home runs from behind the plate. New York ranks near the bottom of the league in batting average but still has enough power to produce runs.
The Mets pitching staff owns a 4.23 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while holding opponents to a .247 batting average. New York has recorded 778 strikeouts and 17 quality starts this season. The staff has been solid at generating strikeouts, although limiting baserunners has remained a challenge throughout the year.
Injuries: Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr., Dedniel Nunez, Austin Warren, Clay Holmes.
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Philadelphia Phillies Looking to Bounce Back
Philadelphia is batting .235 with 425 runs, 774 hits, 125 home runs, a .302 on-base percentage, and a .397 slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber leads the lineup with 32 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Brandon Marsh is batting .297 with 102 hits. Bryce Harper has added 20 home runs with a .367 on-base percentage, giving the Phillies another middle-of-the-order threat. Philadelphia has hit 125 home runs this season, ranking among the better power-hitting teams in the National League.
The Phillies have posted a 4.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while opponents are batting .255. Philadelphia pitchers have struck out 949 batters, one of the highest totals in baseball, and the staff has recorded 42 quality starts. The combination of swing-and-miss pitching and consistent starts has helped keep the Phillies near the top of the division.
Injuries: Lou Trivino, Tanner Banks, Brad Keller, Johan Rojas, Adolis Garcia.
Pitching Matchup
New York Mets – Sean Manaea
Manaea is 2-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 75.0 innings. He has allowed 75 hits and 10 home runs while striking out 74 batters against 24 walks. Manaea will need to keep Philadelphia's power hitters in the ballpark.
Philadelphia Phillies – Jesus Luzardo
Luzardo is 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 110.1 innings. He has allowed 100 hits, nine home runs, and 35 walks while striking out 136 batters. Luzardo has been one of Philadelphia's most dependable starters and gives the Phillies a clear advantage on the mound.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Pick
- Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia gets the edge with Luzardo starting after he posted an 8-4 record and a 3.51 ERA through 110.1 innings. The Phillies also have more power throughout the lineup and one of the league's highest strikeout totals from their pitching staff. Expect Philadelphia to respond after dropping the series opener. With Luzardo facing a Mets lineup that ranks near the bottom of MLB in batting average, Philadelphia has the stronger overall matchup.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under Pick
- Under
Both starting pitchers are capable of working deep into the game, and Philadelphia's pitching staff has consistently generated strikeouts this season. The Mets have also struggled to score consistently, ranking near the bottom of the league in batting average. If Luzardo controls the middle innings, this matchup has a good chance to stay below the total. Philadelphia has also allowed four or fewer runs in three of its last four games, which will help cash the total under the closing line.
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