New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction, Thursday, September 11, 2025
On Thursday, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park, and we have you ready to go with our Mets vs. Phillies prediction. First pitch from Philly is at 7:15 p.m. ET.
The Phillies are -140 moneyline favorites, and the game total is 8.5 runs scored.
New York is 6-4 in its last ten matchups with its NL East rival Philadelphia, and the over/under was split 5-5 in those games. If you want the Mets vs. Phillies prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!
*Article published before the conclusion of Wednesday's game.
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Mets are losing momentum at the worst time
New York (79-69 SU, 70-75 RL, and 67-70-8 O/U) lost two of three games to Cincinnati in its previous series. The Mets are 3-7 in their last ten games (the under was 5-4-1).
New York will start left-hander David Peterson on Thursday against Philadelphia. In his last outing (5.1 IP win vs the Reds), the 30-year-old surrendered four runs on seven hits with four Ks. He is 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts (157.1 IP) this season, including 4-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 13 road starts (78.2 IP).
The Mets are in a tight race with Philadelphia in the NL East. New York's pitching has been mediocre, but the lineup has produced 4.75 runs per game (9th). The Metropolitans went 14-10 in July, but are just 14-21 since then. Can they turn it back on over the final few weeks?
New York Mets Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries for Thursday's game against the Phillies.
Philadelphia has firm control of the NL East
Philadelphia (85-60 SU, 75-70 RL, and 61-74-10 O/U) won two of three games against Miami in its previous series. The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games (the over was 5-3-2).
Philly is turning to lefty Jesús Luzardo on Thursday against New York. In his last start (6.0 IP win vs the Marlins), the 27-year-old allowed two runs on five hits and four walks, striking out eight batters. He is 13-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 29 starts (161.2 IP) this year, including 6-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 14 home starts (78.0 IP).
The Mets may have garnered more offseason hype, but the Phillies have raced out to a nine-game division lead. They have one of the best lineups in MLB, with All-Stars littered on the field. The Phillies have been tough to beat at home (46-23 record) and in night games (55-37), but are just one game over .500 on the road. Can they make a deep run in the postseason this year?
Philadelphia Phillies Baseball Injury Report: No new injuries for Thursday's game against the Mets.
Mets vs. Phillies Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
Run Line Pick for Mets vs. Phillies
- Phillies Cover Run Line (4 Units)
Philadelphia crushed New York in three of its four wins against its NL East rival this season, covering the run line with ease in the three covers (26-6 scoring margin). The Phillies won the first two games of this week's series, as well. I anticipate they'll close out the Mets with another win on Thursday night, effectively wrapping up the division title race. Peterson has struggled in his last two outings, allowing 12 runs on 15 hits in just 7.1 combined innings, while Luzaro held his previous two opponents to two runs on seven hits with 15 Ks (12.2 IP). Philadelphia also has a higher wRC+ and wOBA against southpaws this season.
The Phillies ML is a little expensive for my taste, but I like the value of a bet on their side on the run line.
Over/Under Pick for Mets vs. Phillies
- Over 8.5 (5 Units)
Both starters have pitched to mixed results against Thursday's opponent, with one good outing and one mediocre start. Peterson has regressed in the second half of the season (5.21 ERA after posting a 3.06 ERA in the first half) and was especially bad last month (6.68 ERA). Luzardo, meanwhile, has a 4.50 ERA at home this year. Neither bullpen is elite (14th and 20th in ERA), and the Mets' relief unit has been even worse lately (25th in ERA over the last 30 days). Given that this matchup pits two top ten offenses, I'll bet on the over at 8.5.
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