New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks - September 8, 2025
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Monday's clash between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies promises a high stakes matchups as the Phillies aim to hold their division lead while the Mets chase a late push for the postseason.
Check out our Phillies vs Mets prediction.
look to capitalize on recent momentum despite trailing in the standings. The probable pitching duel features Mets rookie Nolan McLean who is having an excellent season and Phillies starter Aaron Nola.
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McLean looks like the read deal
The Mets enter the matchup in second place in the NL East (76–67), trailing the Phillies by seven games. Their offense ranks in the top ten in multiple categories, including runs per game (4.78, 9th MLB), batting average (.251, 10th), OPS (.760, 4th), and home runs (197, 7th). The lineup is anchored by stars Juan Soto (38 HR, 93 RBI), Francisco Lindor (.268 AVG/.342 OBP/.461 SLG), and Pete Alonso (33 HR, 113 RBI), providing consistent run production and late-game power.
The Mets will send Nolan McLean to the mound today. The 24-year-old rookie has been excellent since his call-up, posting a perfect 4-0 record, 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. As a team, the Mets staff has a 3.93 ERA (15th), WHIP of 1.32 (23rd), but rank just 27th in quality starts (36). 
Is this the year for the Phillies
The Phillies have held steady atop the NL East with an 83–60 record, led by both a deep lineup and widely respected rotation depth. Offensively, they are dangerous, ranking 10th in runs per game (4.77), 3rd in batting average (.258), 7th in OPS (.754), and 10th in home runs (178). All-Star contributors include Kyle Schwarber (49 HR, 120 RBI) and Trea Turner (.305 AVG), give Philadelphia explosive top-of-the-order production, and their running game (115 steals, 11th) complements their power.
On the mound, Philadelphia’s season-long ERA (3.82, 7th MLB) and WHIP (1.24, 10th) reflect impressive consistency, with a league-leading 77 quality starts and just 54 errors (3rd fewest). Yet, Aaron Nola’s recent form is concerning with a 3–8 record with an inflated 6.78 ERA. However Nola has pitched better in his last three outings.
Mets vs. Phillies Pick
Spread pick for Mets vs. Phillies
- Mets -106 (5 units)
The Mets are 7-2 against the Phillies head-to-head this season and swept them in New York less than two weeks ago. McLean started in the Mets most recent 6-0 win over the Phillies on August 27 and tossed eight shutout innings against them. With the stakes being higher for the Mets as they are holding onto the last Wild Card spot in the National League, I expect the Mets dominance over their AL East rival to continue.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nick Parsons | +2,504.00 |
| 2 |  Mark Zinno | +1,729.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,001.00 |
| 4 |  Mike Lundin | +572.00 |
| 5 |  Stephen Nover | +258.00 |
Mets vs. Phillies
- Under 8.5 (3 units)
As poor as Aaron Nola's numbers have been, the Phillies bullpen has been excellent lately, posting a 2.37 ERA in their last 10 games. I expect McLean to hold the Philadelphia bats down early, and as long as Nola can be respectable, it will be hard for this game to reach nine runs. With the wind slightly blowing in, I like the under.
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