New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Yankees visit Fenway Park behind Cam Schlittler as the Red Sox counter with Connelly Early in Thursday's AL East opener.
This preview breaks down the latest lines, starting-pitching matchup, injuries, recent form, bullpen outlook, and top MLB player props for Thursday night's game.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: New York Yankees (-150 at Novig) / Boston Red Sox (+144 at Novig)
Best Spread Odds: New York Yankees -1.5 (+114 at FanDuel) / Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-117 at Novig)
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Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 (+103 at ProphetX) / Under 8.0 (-102 at BetMGM)
Game Info
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV: MLB Network, YES, NESN
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Preview
The New York Yankees enter Thursday at 48-31 after winning two consecutive games and taking two of three from the Detroit Tigers.
New York closed the series with a 4-2 victory Wednesday despite facing Detroit ace Tarik Skubal.
Paul Goldschmidt hit two solo home runs before Jasson Domínguez delivered the decisive two-run shot during the sixth inning.
The Yankees produced only three hits against Skubal, but all three left the ballpark. That performance demonstrated the lineup's ability to create scoring without building extended rallies.
Goldschmidt now has 14 home runs, four more than he hit during the entire 2025 season.
He has emerged as a useful top-of-the-order presence while Aaron Judge remains unavailable. His experience, contact ability, and production against left-handed pitching become especially valuable against Early.
Goldschmidt should receive the platoon advantage throughout his appearances against Boston's starter. Fenway Park's short left-field dimensions also fit his pull-side power.
Domínguez entered Wednesday with only two home runs but delivered the largest swing of the game after striking out during his first two plate appearances.
The switch hitter should bat from the right side against Early. That alignment allows Domínguez to attack the Green Monster and gives New York another right-handed threat behind Goldschmidt.
Ben Rice remains the most productive full-season hitter available in the Yankees lineup.
Rice enters batting approximately .286 with a .378 on-base percentage and .594 slugging percentage. He leads New York in hits, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
The direct matchup is less favourable because Rice bats left-handed against Early. He has also struggled during their limited previous meetings.
Rice remains capable of producing because of his patience and power. Boston cannot treat him as an easy out simply because the platoon matchup favours Early.
Cody Bellinger supplies another left-handed bat near the centre of the order. He enters batting approximately .271 with a .369 on-base percentage, .465 slugging percentage, 11 home runs, and 16 doubles.
Bellinger must navigate another same-handed matchup, but his ability to use the opposite field gives him a chance to attack the Green Monster rather than attempting to pull every pitch.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also provided important power during Judge's absence.
Chisholm hit his 12th home run Tuesday during New York's 4-3 victory over Detroit. His combination of power and speed gives the Yankees another way to generate runs when the middle of the lineup is not producing.
The Yankees remain without Judge, who is on the injured list with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side.
Removing Judge changes the entire offensive structure. Opposing pitchers can attack the other hitters more aggressively without worrying about placing runners aboard ahead of the league's most dangerous power bat.
New York has nevertheless continued receiving production from Rice, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Chisholm, Domínguez, Austin Wells, Amed Rosario, and the available depth hitters.
The offense has become less overwhelming, but it remains deep enough to punish a starter with Early's home-run profile.
The Yankees also possess a significant late-game advantage.
Ryan Weathers completed six innings Wednesday before Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz, and David Bednar protected the lead.
Cruz worked more than one inning and carried the heaviest workload of the three. Doval and Bednar handled shorter appearances.
Bednar extended his scoreless streak to 11 games. His presence gives New York an established closer capable of converting the type of narrow lead Schlittler regularly provides.
The bullpen workload is not ideal, but the Yankees avoided asking any reliever to throw an extreme number of pitches.
Schlittler's ability to work six or seven innings could also reduce the number of relief outs required Thursday.
The Boston Red Sox enter at 32-46 after losing two of three games against the Colorado Rockies.
Boston finished its six-game road trip at 3-3 after wasting a 6-3 lead during Wednesday's 8-6 defeat.
Ranger Suárez delivered six competitive innings and left with a three-run advantage. The bullpen and defense could not finish the game.
Colorado scored three times during the seventh after a Marcelo Mayer error extended the inning.
The Rockies then scored twice against Justin Slaten during the eighth. Tyler Freeman's sacrifice bunt produced the go-ahead run before Cole Carrigg added an RBI double.
The loss represented another damaging result for a Boston team that has struggled to protect leads and build momentum throughout the season.
Ceddanne Rafaela was the clearest offensive positive.
Rafaela finished a home run short of the cycle, recording a single, double, and triple while driving in a run.
He enters batting approximately .286 and has become one of Boston's most reliable contact hitters.
Rafaela should bat near the top of the lineup Thursday. That role provides four or five plate appearances and multiple opportunities to contribute through hits, runs, and RBIs.
Connor Wong and Andruw Monasterio both homered Wednesday.
Wong's two-run home run gave Boston an early 3-0 lead. Monasterio added a solo shot during the fourth inning.
Those performances are relevant against Schlittler because Boston may need isolated power rather than sustained rallies to generate scoring.
Schlittler has prevented baserunners at an elite rate. One home run can create production without requiring the Red Sox to string together three or four successful plate appearances.
Willson Contreras remains the strongest complete hitter in the Boston lineup.
Contreras enters batting approximately .280 with a .375 on-base percentage and .520 slugging percentage. He leads Boston in hits and on-base percentage.
His right-handed swing creates a more favourable matchup against Schlittler than the one facing Boston's left-handed hitters.
Contreras can also use the Green Monster if Schlittler attempts to overpower him with elevated fastballs.
Wilyer Abreu provides Boston's leading qualified slugging percentage at approximately .446.
Abreu bats left-handed and has recorded only one hit in nine career at-bats against Schlittler.
The matchup requires Abreu to remain disciplined against velocity above the strike zone and breaking pitches moving away from his barrel.
Jarren Duran faces a similar problem. He is 1-for-11 against Schlittler with three strikeouts.
Duran can still change the game when he reaches base because of his speed. Schlittler's command has made those opportunities rare during their previous meetings.
Rafaela has two hits in nine at-bats against the Yankees starter. His recent contact provides more optimism than the career matchup alone.
Caleb Durbin left Wednesday's game with a finger injury. His potential absence would further weaken Boston's infield depth after the team already committed a costly defensive error against Colorado.
The Red Sox bullpen is another major concern entering Thursday.
Boston used Slaten, Danny Coulombe, Aroldis Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Tyron Guerrero, Greg Weissert, and Ryan Watson during the recent road trip.
Several relievers worked Wednesday, including Slaten during the decisive eighth inning.
Chapman and Kahnle have also dealt with damaging appearances during the last week. Boston cannot assume a narrow lead will survive once Early exits.
The bullpen situation makes starting-pitcher length especially important.
Early has completed six innings in several appearances and enters after a strong start. Boston needs another efficient outing to avoid exposing the middle relief before the late innings.
The Red Sox are only 12-25 at Fenway Park.
Home field has not provided the expected advantage, although the park dimensions remain capable of turning routine fly balls elsewhere into doubles or home runs.
New York has won four of the first five meetings between these teams during the season.
Boston's only victory came June 5. The Yankees responded by winning the next two games, including a 6-1 victory in the previous series finale.
Schlittler has already defeated Boston twice this season. His familiarity with the lineup gives the Yankees another advantage, although repeated exposure can also help hitters recognize his pitch shapes.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Yankees will start right-hander Cam Schlittler, who enters at 8-3 with a 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 109 strikeouts.
Schlittler has developed into one of the leading American League Cy Young candidates.
His combination of velocity, strikeout production, command, and weak-contact prevention has allowed him to dominate both right-handed and left-handed hitters.
Schlittler enters after his strongest strikeout performance of the season.
He worked six scoreless innings against Cincinnati, allowing four hits while recording a career-high 13 strikeouts.
The performance continued an impressive response to his only difficult start of June.
Schlittler has allowed only two earned runs across his last three appearances.
His fastball provides the foundation of the arsenal. He can elevate it above the strike zone for swings and misses or use its velocity inside to prevent hitters from extending their arms.
The breaking pitches become more effective after opponents begin preparing for the fastball.
Schlittler's five-percent walk rate is another important part of the profile.
He rarely provides opponents with free baserunners. Boston must create offense through hits rather than waiting for command mistakes.
That approach is difficult against a pitcher carrying a WHIP below 1.00.
Schlittler has also dominated away from Yankee Stadium. His road ERA is close to 1.00 through nine starts.
Fenway Park creates a different challenge because several well-located pitches can still become opposite-field doubles off the Green Monster.
Contreras, Rafaela, Wong, Monasterio, and other right-handed hitters can attack left field without producing ideal launch angles.
The projected wind toward left field also increases the danger of elevated contact.
Schlittler must therefore continue generating strikeouts and ground balls rather than depending exclusively on routine fly outs.
The current Boston roster has produced a batting average below .160 against him across approximately 65 plate appearances.
Duran, Abreu, and Rafaela have combined for only four hits in 29 at-bats.
Those results help explain why New York is a substantial road favourite.
Boston still possesses more right-handed power than several previous Schlittler opponents. Contreras, Wong, Rafaela, and Monasterio can punish fastballs that remain over the centre of the plate.
The Yankees should expect six or seven innings if Schlittler maintains his normal efficiency.
He has averaged close to seven strikeouts per appearance and routinely puts New York in a position to protect a late lead.
The Red Sox counter with left-hander Connelly Early, who enters at 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts.
Early's full-season performance has been considerably better than the original draft suggests.
He enters after allowing one run and two hits across six innings against Seattle. Early recorded seven strikeouts during that outing.
The start demonstrated that he can control a major-league lineup when his fastball location and secondary pitches work together.
Early has generally limited large innings despite allowing regular home-run damage.
He has surrendered 14 home runs through 15 starts, nearly one per appearance.
That weakness becomes dangerous at Fenway Park against a Yankees lineup that just hit three home runs against Skubal.
Goldschmidt, Domínguez, Rosario, and the other right-handed Yankees receive the platoon advantage.
Goldschmidt creates the clearest matchup concern after homering twice Wednesday.
Early cannot repeatedly challenge him with fastballs toward the inner half. Goldschmidt can lift those pitches toward the Green Monster or drive them over it.
Domínguez should also bat right-handed. His speed and power create several ways to punish Early if the left-hander allows traffic.
Rosario normally receives additional playing time against left-handed pitching. His aggressive contact approach fits a matchup in which New York wants to attack Early before reaching two-strike counts.
The Yankees' left-handed hitters create more favourable assignments.
Rice, Bellinger, Chisholm, and Wells must either handle the same-handed matchup or wait for Boston's bullpen.
Early has previously held Rice hitless in five at-bats while striking him out four times.
That sample remains extremely small, but the pitch-shape matchup appears favourable for Early.
Early faced New York earlier in the season and allowed three earned runs across 5.1 innings.
A similar performance would keep Boston competitive. The problem is what happens after he exits.
The Red Sox bullpen has struggled to protect leads, while the Yankees can continue sending power hitters to the plate during the final innings.
Game Thesis: New York owns the decisive starting-pitching advantage. Schlittler enters with a 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and elite strikeout-to-walk profile, while Early has allowed 14 home runs in 15 starts. Boston's bullpen also enters after blowing a three-run lead Wednesday. Judge's absence keeps the Yankees from becoming an automatic run-line selection, but Goldschmidt, Rice, Bellinger, Chisholm, and Domínguez provide enough offense to support their starter. The projected wind toward left field, Fenway Park's dimensions, Early's home-run vulnerability, and bullpen workload create a stronger case for Over 8.0 than the original Under. A projected 6-3 Yankees victory supports the moneyline, run line, and total.
⭐ Best Bet - Moneyline Pick: New York Yankees (-150)
The Yankees are the strongest game selection at -150.
Schlittler provides the clearest advantage in the matchup.
He enters with a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, compared with Early's 3.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Schlittler also owns the stronger strikeout and walk profile. His ability to miss bats without creating free baserunners limits Boston's paths to a large inning.
New York has already won two of Schlittler's starts against the Red Sox this season.
The current Boston roster has produced limited contact against him, particularly Duran, Abreu, and Rafaela.
Boston can still score through Fenway-assisted extra-base hits or one mistake to Contreras, Wong, Rafaela, or Monasterio.
The Red Sox are unlikely to generate repeated traffic unless Schlittler's command suddenly declines.
New York's offense also receives several favourable matchups against Early.
Goldschmidt, Domínguez, and Rosario can all bat from the right side. Each possesses enough power to exploit Early's home-run rate.
The Yankees just produced three home runs against one of baseball's best pitchers. That result does not guarantee another power display, but it shows the available lineup can score without Judge.
The bullpen comparison also favours New York.
Bednar has completed 11 consecutive scoreless appearances, while Boston enters after Slaten and the defense allowed Colorado to erase a 6-3 lead.
New York's primary relievers worked Wednesday, but none faced an extreme workload.
Boston's 12-25 home record removes much of the normal concern associated with laying a road price at Fenway Park.
The Yankees are the better team, own the stronger starting pitcher, and possess the more trustworthy late-game structure.
Spread Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+114)
New York -1.5 offers a worthwhile plus-money alternative.
Schlittler has allowed two earned runs or fewer during nearly every start this season.
If he holds Boston to one or two runs through six innings, the Yankees need only moderate production to create separation.
Early's home-run vulnerability gives New York several paths to a multi-run inning.
A walk or single ahead of Goldschmidt, Domínguez, Rice, Bellinger, or Chisholm can immediately become a two-run swing.
The Green Monster also allows right-handed hitters to collect doubles on fly balls that would become outs in larger left fields.
Boston's bullpen creates another opportunity for insurance runs.
The Red Sox failed to protect a three-run lead Wednesday and have received inconsistent results from several experienced relievers.
New York can cover the run line without scoring heavily against Early if it adds late runs against the bullpen.
The largest concern remains Judge's absence.
The Yankees lineup is more dependent on Rice, Bellinger, Goldschmidt, and Chisholm when Judge is unavailable. A poor game from that group can leave Schlittler protecting a one-run lead.
Fenway Park also creates late scoring risk. Boston can turn a routine fly ball or line drive into an extra-base hit and reduce a multi-run deficit quickly.
The +114 price compensates for those concerns. Scores such as 5-2, 6-3, or 6-2 support the Yankees run line.
Total Pick: Over 8.0 (+103)
Over 8.0 is preferable to the original Under recommendation.
Schlittler provides an elite run-prevention profile, but the total does not require Boston to score four or five times.
A 6-3 or 7-2 Yankees victory would clear the number while remaining consistent with another strong Schlittler start.
Early has allowed 14 home runs through 15 appearances.
He now faces a lineup that hit three home runs against Skubal on Wednesday.
Goldschmidt has the platoon advantage and enters after his first multi-homer game of the season.
Domínguez, Rosario, and the available right-handed hitters can also attack Fenway's short left-field dimensions.
The projected wind is expected to move toward left field at close to 11 mph.
That direction supports right-handed pull power and opposite-field contact from left-handed hitters.
Boston's bullpen increases the scoring ceiling.
The Red Sox used multiple relievers during Wednesday's loss and surrendered five runs after Suárez left the game.
Slaten, Coulombe, Chapman, Kahnle, Guerrero, Weissert, and Watson have all worked during the recent stretch.
The Yankees bullpen is not completely fresh either.
Doval, Cruz, and Bednar handled Wednesday's final three innings. Boston could create late scoring if Schlittler exits before the seventh and New York avoids using the same relievers on consecutive nights.
Boston's lineup also showed some life in Colorado.
Rafaela nearly completed the cycle, while Wong and Monasterio homered.
Coors Field enhanced that production, but Fenway remains another favourable environment for extra-base hits.
Judge's absence and Schlittler's dominance create legitimate Under arguments.
Early also enters after six innings of one-run baseball against Seattle.
The eight-run number provides valuable push protection. A 5-3 or 4-4 result returns the stake.
The available plus-money price supports a position on nine or more runs.
Top Player Prop Picks
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102 at ProphetX) Goldschmidt enters after hitting two home runs against Skubal.
He now owns 14 home runs and should remain near the top of the Yankees lineup.
The total-bases market gives Goldschmidt several paths to clear the number.
One double, triple, or home run is sufficient. Two singles would also cash the prop.
Goldschmidt receives the platoon advantage against Early.
Early has allowed 14 home runs in 15 starts, making this one of New York's strongest individual power matchups.
Fenway Park also suits Goldschmidt's swing.
He can pull elevated pitches over the Green Monster or collect doubles when the ball strikes the wall.
The projected wind toward left field creates another positive factor.
Goldschmidt should receive at least four plate appearances if Early works into the middle innings.
Boston's bullpen adds later opportunities, particularly if the Red Sox avoid using a left-hander against the right-handed veteran.
The primary risk is natural regression following Wednesday's two-homer performance.
Goldschmidt does not need another home run to clear the line. One extra-base hit is enough at a plus-money return.
Jasson Domínguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 at Novig) Domínguez enters after producing the go-ahead two-run home run Wednesday.
He should bat right-handed against Early and occupy an important run-producing position.
The combination market can clear through several routes.
Domínguez can record two hits, combine one hit with a run, or drive in a teammate after Goldschmidt, Rice, or Bellinger reaches base.
Early's 1.27 WHIP should create enough traffic for RBI opportunities.
The starter's home-run rate also increases Domínguez's ceiling.
Domínguez does not need to leave the park, but his power makes it possible to clear the entire prop with one swing if a runner is aboard.
His speed adds another path to a run.
A single or walk can place Domínguez in scoring position if he steals a base or advances on a hit.
Boston's bullpen has struggled to complete games, providing more favourable plate appearances after Early exits.
Domínguez remains an inconsistent young hitter and can accumulate strikeouts when he becomes overly aggressive.
His handedness advantage, current confidence, and central lineup role support Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs.
Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+108 at Novig) Rafaela enters after finishing one home run short of the cycle against Colorado.
He recorded three hits, scored, and drove in a run during Wednesday's defeat.
Rafaela should bat second, giving him one of Boston's strongest plate-appearance projections.
The combination market does not require him to solve Schlittler for multiple hits.
One hit and one run would clear the number. One hit and one RBI would produce the same result.
Rafaela's lineup position gives him opportunities to score ahead of Contreras and Abreu.
He can also drive in Duran or another leadoff hitter if Boston creates traffic during the first inning.
Fenway Park supports Rafaela's right-handed contact profile.
The Green Monster can convert well-struck fly balls into doubles, while the projected wind toward left field increases his extra-base ceiling.
Schlittler represents an extremely difficult matchup. Rafaela has only two hits in nine previous at-bats against him.
The Yankees starter's low walk rate also limits the number of free scoring opportunities.
Rafaela can receive one or two later plate appearances against the Yankees bullpen if Schlittler works six or seven innings.
The plus-money price compensates for the matchup difficulty and provides value on a hitter entering with strong recent contact and a premium lineup position.
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