New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 31 2026

Today's New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs picks focus on a competitive afternoon matchup between Will Warren and Shota Imanaga. Chicago is favored around -147 at Wrigley Field, while the total is set at 9. The Cubs have the stronger starting-pitcher profile and remain playable just inside the established moneyline limit. Readers can also review our MLB player props coverage and daily MLB picks and predictions before first pitch.

Best Available Odds for New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs

• Moneyline: New York Yankees +132 | Chicago Cubs -147
• Total: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)

Game Info

• Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
• Time: 2:20 p.m. EDT
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
• TV: YES and Marquee Sports Network
• Probable Pitchers: Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga

New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Preview

New York enters with enough right-handed power to challenge any left-handed starter, but Warren must keep the game close against a deep Cubs lineup. Chicago has the more reliable home offense and can pressure Warren by forcing him into long at-bats. Imanaga gives the Cubs a chance to control the game before the bullpens become involved.

The MLB betting trends support a restrained Yankees scoring projection. New York road games have gone under in 35 of 58 decisions, while the Yankees have also produced a profitable road moneyline record. Chicago home first-five totals have leaned higher, but Imanaga is a more difficult matchup than the earlier listed Cubs starter.

An earlier market snapshot had Chicago at -150 and New York at +130, with the total at 9. The current price has softened slightly to Cubs -147 and Yankees +132, while the total has not moved. That small adjustment gives Chicago a playable entry without materially changing the matchup.

Pitching Matchup

Warren is 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 102 strikeouts. His swing-and-miss ability can help him escape traffic, but Chicago can create damage if he falls behind in counts and leaves his fastball over the plate. New York needs Warren to limit walks and avoid forcing the bullpen into the middle innings.

Imanaga is 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 113 strikeouts. His command and ability to change eye levels give Chicago the steadier starting profile. The Yankees can challenge him with right-handed power, but Imanaga should create enough weak contact to keep the Cubs in control.

Game Thesis: Chicago has the better starting pitcher, the deeper home lineup, and a modestly improved price. A 5-3 Cubs win supports the moneyline and the under.

Best Bet - Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-147)

Chicago is the best bet because Imanaga provides the more reliable path through the first six innings and the Cubs have enough lineup depth to pressure Warren. New York remains dangerous, but the Yankees have repeatedly played lower-scoring road games. The price is playable at -147 and should be passed if it moves beyond -150.

Total Pick: Under 9 (-110)

The under is the secondary pick because New York road games have gone under in 35 of 58 decisions and Imanaga can limit the Yankees' power. Warren is the obvious risk, but he has enough strikeout ability to prevent every baserunner from becoming a rally. A 5-3 finish stays below the total.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, New York Yankees 3