New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Picks – Wednesday, September 3, 2025
The New York Yankees and Houston Astros renew their American League rivalry Wednesday night at Minute Maid Park in a matchup with postseason implications. Both clubs are fighting for position in tightly contested divisional races.
Check out our Yankees vs. Astros prediction.
Houston took two of three games from New York in their series last month at Yankee Stadium, and this prediction was written prior to Tuesday night's series opener.
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Yankees Gaining Ground
The Yankees head to Houston riding a strong stretch that has them climbing in both the AL East and Wild Card standings. At 76-61, New York trails Toronto by 2.5 games and is tied with Boston, keeping them firmly in the playoff hunt.
Their offense continues to be one of baseball’s most dangerous, averaging 5.25 runs per game to lead the majors. Aaron Judge remains the centerpiece, hitting .324 with 43 home runs and an OPS north of 1.100.
On the mound, Will Warren (8-6, 4.30 ERA) gets the ball. He has been solid overall but less reliable on the road, where he is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA. Defensively, New York sits in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in ERA and 13th in WHIP. The bullpen has been tested but continues to hold its own, with Devin Williams recording 18 of the team’s 35 saves.
Alvarez Returns for Astros
Houston enters play at 76-62, holding onto first place in the AL West. The Astros’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 24th in runs per game at 4.2. Jeremy Peña leads the team with a .307 average and an .842 OPS, while veteran Jose Altuve has clubbed a team-best 24 homers.
The return of Yordan Alvarez has been a huge boost. Alvarez, who last played on May 2 before coming back on August 26, adds a much-needed power presence to the lineup.
Pitching remains Houston’s backbone, with the staff ranking seventh in ERA (3.82) and sixth in WHIP (1.22). Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.61 ERA) is scheduled to start on Wednesday. He struggled earlier this season with Oakland, giving up 12 earned runs in six innings, but since joining Houston, he has settled in and the Astros have won each of his last six starts.
Pick: Astros Moneyline
The Astros have won six straight games started by Jason Alexander, including a dominant outing against New York on August 10 when he allowed just one hit over six innings in a 7-1 Houston victory. Given Warren’s road struggles, the Astros are the side to back in this spot.
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| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
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| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Pick: Under
Alexander has been sharp recently, posting a 2.17 ERA in his last five starts. Active Yankees hitters are just 3-for-26 (.115) lifetime against him. While Warren has been inconsistent on the road, he has been excellent lately with a 2.84 ERA over his last five starts, and the Yankees have allowed more than four runs just once in his last six outings.
With both pitchers trending in the right direction, the under is the better play.
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