New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Picks and Prediction, Monday, September 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC The New York Yankees open a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night in Minneapolis. New York enters the matchup trailing Toronto by four games in the AL East with 13 games remaining, while holding a 4.5-game cushion in the wild-card race.
Minnesota, losers in 10 of its last 13, is hoping to play spoiler at this point but still looking to finish strong. The Yankees have won three of their last four but dropped a 6-4 decision to Boston on Sunday.
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Getting closer to clinching postseason
The Yankees continue to walk the line between division contention and wild-card security as the final stretch of the season unfolds. At 83-66, New York has played itself into a strong wild card position, largely because of its pitching and Aaron Judge’s monster season. Judge has been the catalyst all year, hitting .326 with 48 home runs, 102 RBI, and a .447 on-base percentage.
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Carlos Rodón, who is listed to start this game, has also carried the rotation with a steady hand. Entering Monday at 16-8 with a 3.11 ERA, Rodón has been even sharper over his last five outings, posting a 2.43 ERA. His dominance extends to this matchup, as active Twins hitters have managed just a .156 average against him in their careers (7-for-45). If Rodón continues to neutralize Minnesota’s lineup, New York will be in a position to control the game early.
The Yankees’ biggest concern has been their bullpen, which has faltered over the past 10 games with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Relievers have allowed opponents to hit .303 with a .363 OBP in that span. Despite the bullpen struggles, the Yankees have found ways to win, taking three of their last four.
Buxton, a Twin for life
The Twins, sitting at 71-78, have endured a frustrating stretch that has knocked them out of contention. Minnesota has dropped 10 of its last 13, including back-to-back losses to Arizona, and now looks to play the role of spoiler against New York. Despite the struggles, Byron Buxton has been the bright spot in the lineup, leading the team in every major offensive category. He enters Monday hitting .270 with 31 home runs, 76 RBI, a .333 OBP, and 119 hits. When Buxton is on, Minnesota’s offense shows flashes of power, but support around him has been inconsistent.
Minnesota has played close to even at home (34-40), but the team’s inability to finish games has been costly, and their straight-up record as underdogs sits at just 23-37. On the mound, Simeon Woods Richardson will get the ball. The right-hander carries a 4.58 ERA with a 6-4 record but has struggled mightily of late, posting a 6.75 ERA over his last five starts.
Yankees vs Twins prediction:
Money Line Pick for Yankees vs. Twins
- Yankees -1.5 (-115) *4 units
With both bullpens struggling, I'm heavily leaning on New York's starting pitching edge. Active Twins hitters have struggled against Carlos RodĂłn, coming in with just a .156 batting average against him in them. The Twins' starter, Simeon Woods Richardson, has been tagged for a 6.75 ERA in his last five outings, while Carlos RodĂłn has been sharp with a 2.43 ERA over the same span. I will back the Yankees to win by at least two runs.
- Over 8.5 *4 units
Both bullpens enter this matchup in poor form, which makes the total of 8.5 worth a look on the over. Yankees relievers have allowed 7.41 runs per nine innings over their last 10 games, while Twins relievers have given up 7.65 runs in the same stretch. Both bullpens have allowed their opponents to hit over .300 during that stretch.
While Rodón should limit Minnesota’s offense early, the shaky state of the late innings for both clubs could allow runs to pile up. Combined with Aaron Judge’s power surge and Buxton’s ability to generate offense, the over is my play.
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