New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for AL Division Series Game 1, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC The regular season is in the rearview mirror and the postseason brings a clash between AL East rivals as the New York Yankees take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of their best-of-five AL Division Series Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction. New York advanced as they blanked Boston 4-0 in the decisive third game of their AL Wild Card Series at home Thursday night. Toronto capped a three-game home sweep of the Rays to end the regular season as they rolled to a 13-4 win Sunday. In the regular season series, the Blue Jays owned an 8-5 advantage, though the Yankees took two of three at home in the most recent series, September 5-7. Read more about this Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
New York Seeking to Draw First Blood on the Road
New York managed to oust Boston by taking the decisive Game 3, winning two straight after dropping the opening game of the set. The Yankees now head north of the border and look to draw first blood in the set with a road win here. Against Boston Thursday night, New York finished with eight hits as Jazz Chisholm Jr. (run) was the lone player with two. The Yankees went three of 11 with runners in scoring position and left seven men on base in the game. A four-run fourth inning provided all the offense in the contest. Cam Schlittler (1-0) earned the win in his postseason debut. He tossed eight scoreless innings, allowing five hits with no walks and 12 strikeouts, before departing.
The Yankees have not officially named a starter here but the expectation is that Luis Gil will make his first postseason start of the year after logging 11 regular-season starts. He was 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.404 WHIP, 33 walks and 41 strikeouts over 57 innings of work this season. Gil didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came at home against Baltimore on Sunday. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on three hits with two walks and two strikeouts in a 3-2 Yankees win. In his last three starts, Gil has no record with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.468 WHIP, six walks and seven strikeouts over 15.2 innings of work. Gil makes his fifth career start against the Blue Jays in this contest. He is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA, a 1.661 WHIP, 22 walks and 21 strikeouts over 18.2 innings of work against them. Gil took the loss in his lone career start at Rogers Centre, which came back on April 15, 2024. He threw five innings, allowing three runs on three hits with seven walks and six strikeouts in a 3-1 Yankees defeat.
The Yankees could pivot to Will Warren (9-8, 4.44 ERA, 65 walks, 171 strikeouts over 162.1 innings in 33 starts) here. Aaron Judge (flexor tendon) has had issues throwing and the Blue Jays may try to be aggressive on the basepaths on balls hit his way. Cody Bellinger injured his foot on a slide in Game 3 against Boston but expects to play in the series.
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Blue Jays Looking to Start Series Strong
Toronto closed the regular season with four straight wins, sweeping the Rays last weekend to head to the postseason with momentum. The Blue Jays finished the regular season 94-68 and were tied with the Yankees for the top spot in the AL East. Since they won the head-to-head series, that gave them the division title and the bye. Against Tampa Bay, Toronto banged out 15 hits as Alejandro Kirk (two runs, six RBI) and George Springer (two runs, two RBI) each had three to lead the way. Kirk (his 14th and 15th) went deep twice in the win, while Addison Barger (his 21st) and Springer (his 32nd) also went deep in the win. Kevin Gausman threw 3.2 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits with two walks and five strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Mason Fluharty (5-2) threw 1.1 scoreless innings of relief, allowing no hits or walks while striking out two, to earn the win.
Kevin Gausman is on the bump for the Blue Jays as he makes his first start of the postseason in this contest after 32 regular season starts. He was 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA, a 1.062 WHIP, 50 walks and 189 strikeouts over 193 innings of work on the year. Gausman didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came against the Rays at home Sunday. He threw 3.2 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits with two walks and five strikeouts, in a 13-4 Blue Jays victory. In his last three starts, Gausman is 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA, a 1.826 WHIP, five walks and 18 strikeouts over 15.1 innings of work. Gausman makes his 40th career appearance, 34th start, against the Yankees in this contest. He is 12-10 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.309 WHIP, 68 walks and 189 strikeouts over 196.1 innings in those outings. Gausman is 23-25 with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.271 WHIP, 114 walks and 455 strikeouts over 425 innings of work in 76 career appearances, 73 starts, at Rogers Centre.
Bo Bichette, who last played September 6, is "going down to the wire" in regards to his availability. Watch for updates.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Blue Jays -124 (4 units)
The Yankees advanced by beating Boston, but that means they had to burn Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, in addition to Schlittler, to get here. That puts the Yankees at a disadvantage on the mound here. Toronto took six of seven meetings between the teams at Rogers Centre this season. Gil has struggled with control this season and the Yankees are likely to have a short leash to avoid digging a hole that could be too much to battle back from. For all their power in the regular season (274 homers), the Yankees scored only nine runs and hit two homers in the three games with the Red Sox. With Toronto’s deep lineup and playing at home, look for the Blue Jays to prevail here.
Over/Under Pick for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
- Under 8 (4 units)
New York has seen the under hit in 84 of their 165 games, with five pushes, this season entering Saturday. The Yankees are first in the majors by averaging 5.20 runs per game though they allow 4.19 runs per game, giving them an average of 9.39 runs per game. New York puts up an average of 5.43 runs per game on the road, while allowing 4.46 runs per game, giving them an average total of 9.89 runs per contest. Toronto has seen the over post an 86-71-5 mark on the year entering Friday night. The Blue Jays are 4th in the majors with 4.93 runs per game and that number edges up to 5.32 runs per game at Rogers Centre. Toronto has an average total of 9.38 runs per game but that number climbs to 9.48 runs per game at home. After seeing New York struggle to put up runs against Boston, and seeing the under post a 4-1-1 mark in the last six meetings, look for the under here.
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