New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday at Rogers Centre, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:37 PM ET. New York enters at 68-54, second in the AL East and 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 37-27 on the road and have lost two straight after Friday’s 3-1 defeat in Toronto. They are 2-3 across their last five games. Toronto is 60-64, tied for fourth in the division and 15.5 games back. The Blue Jays are 32-32 at home and have won four of their last five after Friday’s victory. Toronto leads the series 1-0 entering Saturday’s game. Check out the matchup and others in our free MLB picks.

New York Yankees Looking to Find More Offense

New York has scored only two runs over its last two games, following a 10-run performance against Seattle on Wednesday. The Yankees are batting .230 with a .309 on-base percentage and .410 slugging percentage while scoring 546 runs. Power remains their biggest offensive strength, with 170 home runs. Ben Rice leads the club with 32 homers and 76 RBIs while batting .253, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. has added 17 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

The Yankees have relied heavily on their pitching staff, which ranks first in MLB with a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. New York has held opponents to a .224 batting average while allowing 121 home runs and recording 1,091 strikeouts. That pitching has been particularly important during the recent offensive slowdown. The Yankees have allowed only 12 runs over their last five games, including one run against Seattle on Tuesday and one on Thursday.

Toronto Blue Jays Try to Continue Recent Run

Toronto has won four of its last five games, with the only loss coming in a 7-0 defeat against Boston on Thursday. The Blue Jays have scored 16 runs during that five-game stretch. Toronto is batting .242 with a .303 on-base percentage and .375 slugging percentage while producing 485 runs and 116 home runs. Ernie Clement leads the team with a .280 average and 130 hits, while Kazuma Okamoto has supplied 24 home runs and 71 RBIs.

The Blue Jays rank 11th in MLB pitching with a 4.01 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Toronto has held opposing hitters to a .241 average while recording 1,073 strikeouts, but the staff has issued 457 walks. The Blue Jays have allowed 15 runs over their last five contests, including three or fewer in three games. Toronto limited New York to one run Friday, continuing a strong stretch that has helped the Blue Jays win four of five.

Pitching Matchup

New York Yankees – Ryan Weathers

Weathers is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 126.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 116 hits, 37 walks and 18 home runs while striking out 136. Weathers faces a Toronto lineup batting .242 with a .303 on-base percentage and .375 slugging percentage. The Blue Jays have scored three or more runs in three of their last five games, but Weathers has the strikeout numbers to challenge a lineup with only 116 home runs this season.

Toronto Blue Jays – Dylan Cease

Cease is 7-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 131.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed only 85 hits, 56 walks and nine home runs while recording 191 strikeouts. Cease faces a New York lineup batting .230 with a .309 on-base percentage and 170 home runs. The Yankees carry plenty of power, but Cease’s ability to miss bats and limit home runs gives him a strong matchup against an offense that has scored one run in each of its last two games.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Pick

• Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is the game pick with Cease providing the strongest starting pitching numbers in this matchup. Cease carries a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 191 strikeouts, while Weathers enters with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Blue Jays have also won four of their last five games and held New York to one run Friday. New York’s offense has scored only two runs across its last two contests, making Toronto the stronger play for Sunday’s matchup at Rogers Centre.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under Pick

• Under

The under is the total pick based on the starting pitching matchup and both teams’ recent scoring. Cease has allowed only 85 hits and nine home runs through 131.1 innings, while Weathers owns a solid 3.69 ERA. New York has scored three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, including one run in each of the last two. Toronto has also allowed three runs or fewer in three of five, creating conditions for another lower-scoring game Sunday.