Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Saturday, September 20, 2025

By: Mark Ruelle Published 09/20/2025, 04:17 AM ET
Phillies at Diamondbacks MLB Prediction
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In this Phillies at Diamondbacks prediction, the Phillies and Diamondbacks are set to square off in game two of their weekend series in Arizona on Saturday night. The Phillies have already clinched the NL East Division with only the top seed in the NL still to be decided. The Diamondbacks are out of the playoff picture but are battling to finish over .500. The pitching matchup will be Phillies’ righty Aaron Nola (4-9, 6.44) taking on Diamondbacks’ right-hander Zac Gallen (12-14, 4.73). The first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM EST. Read on for more in this Phillies/Diamondbacks prediction, and grab our top MLB predictions to increase your bankroll!

Philadelphia wants to close strong

The Philadelphia Phillies have clinched the NL East Division for the second straight season. They are all but assured of one of the top two seeds in the National League heading into the final week of the season. The only thing left for the Phillies is to pass the Brewers and claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Heading into the weekend, the Phillies distanced themselves from the Dodgers in the NL standings, taking two of three games from the NL West Division leaders. The Phillies had a chance to sweep the Dodgers on Wednesday, but fell 5-0. The Phillies had just three hits in the game and struck out 13 times as a team. Starter Jesus Luzardo went seven innings and allowed six hits and four runs.

*This article was written before the conclusion of Friday night’s Phillies/Diamondbacks game.

The Phillies are in shouting distance of the Brewers for the top seed in the NL, so they could be motivated to finish strong and gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will send veteran right-hander Aaron Nola to the hill on Saturday night. Nola is 4-9 on the season in 15 starts, including five quality starts. He has an inflated 6.44 ERA to go along with a WHIP of 1.43. Nola has allowed 90 hits in 81.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 84 and walked 26. Nola has given up 17 home runs this season. The Phillies have won three of Nola’s last five starts. Nola is 0-5 on the road this season in seven starts with an ERA of 7.00.

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Key Injuries: RP Jose Alvarado, RP Jordan Romano, 2B Edmondo Sosa, and SS Trea Turner are out.

Diamondbacks can spoil the Phillies’ playoff positioning

The Arizona Diamondbacks will not be joining the playoff party in 2025. They can, however, impact the playoff standings with a good weekend against the Phillies at home. Arizona enters play on Friday night one game over .500 for the season. The Diamondbacks had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 5-1 loss to the Giants in extra innings. The game was scoreless until the top of the 11th when the Giants pushed across five runs. Diamondbacks’ starter Brandon Pfaadt was outstanding. He allowed just one hit in nine innings, walking one and striking out seven.

*This article was written before the conclusion of Friday night’s Phillies/Diamondbacks game.

The Diamondbacks lost two of the three games against the Phillies this season, all of them in Philadelphia. They’ll turn to righty Zac Gallen in game two on Saturday. Gallen is 12-14 this season in 31 starts, including 14 quality starts. He has allowed 165 hits in 180.2 innings of work. Gallen has a 4.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. He has struck out 163 batters and walked 61. Gallen has given up 29 home runs this season. The Diamondbacks have won three of Gallen’s last five starts. At home, Gallen is 5-7 with an ERA of 4.61 in 16 starts.

Key Injuries: RP Christian Montes De Oca, RP Cristian Mena, 1B Tyler Locklear, 1B Pavin Smith, and RP Kevin Ginkel are out.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Pick 

Money line Pick for Phillies at Diamondbacks 

  • Diamondbacks ML (4 units)

After taking two of three from the Dodgers this week, the Phillies looked primed for the second seed in the NL. It will be interesting to see how much they push for the #1 spot with just over a week left in the regular season. Health should be the priority for the Phillies, having all but clinched a bye out of the wildcard round. The Diamondbacks and Saturday night’s starter, Gallen, should be motivated to pick up a win. The D-Backs are still chasing a winning record for the season. Gallen has had a disappointing season overall, but can finish strong in these last two starts to erase some of the bad taste of this season. The Diamondbacks are also 40-35 at home this season.

Take the Diamondbacks with the money line.

Over/Under Pick for Phillies at Diamondbacks 

  • Over (5 units)

Phillies’ starter Nola is having the worst season of his career. He has an ERA over 6.00 in what has been an injury-riddled season. The Phillies have gone over the number in four of Nola’s last five starts. Gallen has pitched better as of late, but still holds an ERA of 4.61 at home this season to go along with a 5-7 record. Both teams are among the top home run-hitting teams in the National League, and these two pitchers are not strangers to the long ball. This one should be a high-scoring contest.

Take the Over.

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