Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday, June 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC The final game of this three-game NL East series closes out the weekend at Citi Field in Flushing, Queens, with a 1:40 PM ET first pitch as the Philadelphia Phillies (46-36) look to take the series finale against a New York Mets (34-48) club that has entered full sell mode. Read on to find out who takes the series in our Phillies vs. Mets prediction. Don't go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Phillies Send Luzardo Armed With the Best Road Split in Baseball
Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 4.20 ERA) carries the most extreme home-road split in baseball into Sunday's series finale. He has a 1.55 ERA in seven road starts against a 7.34 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, a 5.79-run gap that leads all pitchers in 2026 and would be the third-largest such gap by a left-hander since those splits began being tracked in 1976. Citi Field in Queens, a pitcher-friendly environment that suppresses offense, represents precisely the profile where Luzardo has been virtually untouchable all season.
Luzardo's Statcast numbers are quietly elite despite the ERA inconsistency: his average exit velocity allowed sits at 86.6, his hard-hit rate at 30.4%, and his xwOBA against at .283, underlying contact metrics that signal a pitcher whose results in road environments should be significantly better than any ERA figure suggests. The southpaw owns an exceptional arsenal featuring a great fastball, outstanding changeup, and solid curve, and he displays pinpoint control with a very repeatable delivery, making him a major handful for big-league batters. His season-long 97 strikeouts against just 30 walks underscores the command and swing-and-miss ability that makes his road starts among the most reliable matchup plays in the National League.
Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia in total hits at 74 on the season while batting .255 with 39 extra-base hits and slugging .593. Bryce Harper leads Philadelphia with an on-base percentage of .373 while batting .269 with 50 walks and 54 runs scored, slugging .523. The Phillies' lineup closed this week's Washington series with a 10-5 win in which Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Derek Hill all homered, the kind of sustained offensive depth that makes Philadelphia one of the most dangerous lineups in the NL even against quality arms.
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Mets Are Rebuilding in Real Time
No starter has been announced for New York yet, this will likely be a bullpen game for the Mets.
The Mets' current rotation consists of Sean Manaea (4.87 ERA), Nolan McLean (4.03 ERA), and Freddy Peralta (4.83 ERA), a collection of inconsistent starters that underscores why New York already began selling assets, trading David Peterson to the Cubs this week in exchange for a prospect. The Mets are 14.5 games back in the NL East and nine games back of the third Wild Card spot. They have lost five straight games and are a season-worst 12 games under .500 at 34-46, essentially eliminated from playoff contention.
The Mets rank 29th in on-base percentage and tied for 23rd in runs per game, they are not a good offensive team at the best of times. Mets hitters have an OPS of just .675 this season, second lowest in MLB. They have scored 0.89 runs per game in late innings, the lowest rate in baseball. The Mets have scored just 72 runs in innings seven through nine this season, the fewest in MLB. The offensive infrastructure around Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette is thin enough that even a competent road start from Luzardo should be enough to keep New York below their already-meager average output.
Phillies vs. Mets Picks
- Money Line Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
The starting pitcher edge is heavily Philadelphia's in this matchup. Luzardo's road ERA of 1.55 is the cleanest matchup angle on the entire Sunday slate, a left-hander who has been virtually unhittable away from Citizens Bank Park all season, facing a Mets lineup that ranks 29th in OBP and last in late-inning run production. Take Philadelphia to win and take the series.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 8.5 Runs
The Over is 5-1 over Philadelphia's last six series finales, and none of the last four Phillies games have gone under. The Mets have hit the game total Over in 16 of their last 24 home games, a 67% clip that reflects Citi Field's recent tendency to play more neutrally than its pitcher-friendly reputation suggests. Scott is returning from injury and will be on a strict pitch count, putting heavy pressure on a New York bullpen that has been overworked all season. The Phillies' offense produced 18 combined runs with Philadelphia on Saturday and enters Sunday with the most dangerous lineup in the series, Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, and Realmuto against a patchwork Mets bullpen after Scott's inevitable early exit is the setting where Philadelphia's run-scoring ability asserts itself most clearly. Take the Over.
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