Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 13, 2026

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves on Sunday at Truist Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET and televised on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Philadelphia is 82-66, second in the NL East and five games behind Atlanta. The Phillies hold the first NL Wild Card position, 3.5 games ahead of San Diego for the third and final position, with 14 games remaining. Atlanta is 87-61, first in the NL East with a five-game division lead and 14 games remaining. Check out our free MLB picks.

Philadelphia Phillies Trying to End a Two-Game Slide

Philadelphia has lost three of its last four, with two of those defeats decided by one run. The Phillies are batting .241 with a .311 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage, totaling 664 runs and 173 home runs. Kyle Schwarber leads the power numbers with 44 home runs and 92 RBI, while Bryce Harper is batting .271 with a .387 on-base percentage, 27 homers and 82 RBI. Trea Turner has 141 hits, 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases.

The Phillies pitching staff owns a 3.98 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while holding opponents to a .245 batting average. Philadelphia has also recorded 17 shutouts and 68 quality starts. Defensively, the Phillies have a .986 fielding percentage with 74 errors, placing them in the middle of the MLB fielding rankings. 

Injuries: Brandon Marsh and Jesus Luzardo are day-to-day. Tanner Banks and Felix Reyes are on the 60-day IL. Caleb Kilian is on the 15-day IL.

Atlanta Braves Trying to Build on Consecutive Wins

Atlanta followed Thursday’s 3-1 win over Tampa Bay by beating Philadelphia 6-5 in 11 innings Friday. The Braves are batting .246 with a .309 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage, producing 677 runs and 185 home runs. Matt Olson leads Atlanta with 38 homers and 82 RBI while batting .249. Michael Harris II has a team-high 152 hits with a .283 average, 24 home runs and 80 RBI. Drake Baldwin is batting .277 with a .354 on-base percentage and 23 homers.

The Braves have been stronger on the mound, posting a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .232 batting average. Atlanta has 10 shutouts and 56 quality starts. The defense has also been sharp, with a .988 fielding percentage and only 64 errors, tied among the better marks in baseball. 

Injuries: Robert Suarez, Joe Jimenez and Spencer Strider are on the 60-day IL. Bryce Elder is on the 15-day IL. Lane Thomas is on the 10-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies - Andrew Painter

Andrew Painter is 3-9 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across 110.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 117 hits, 39 walks, and 19 home runs while recording 97 strikeouts. Painter’s 5.71 ERA is the biggest concern entering Sunday, and opponents have frequently found ways to reach base against him. His 19 home runs allowed also leave little room for mistakes when working in the strike zone.

Atlanta Braves - Grant Holmes

Grant Holmes is 9-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP through 137.2 innings. Holmes has allowed 120 hits, 57 walks and 19 home runs while striking out 110. His ERA is more than two runs lower than Painter’s, although the 57 walks have created some difficult innings. Holmes has logged more innings and has kept his season ERA comfortably below four.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Game Pick

• Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the pick with Holmes holding a clear starting pitching advantage and the Braves playing at Truist Park, where they are 50-26. Holmes owns a 3.46 ERA compared with Painter’s 5.71, while Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA and .232 opponent batting average. The Braves also have more home runs and runs scored than Philadelphia. With Olson, Harris, and Baldwin producing in the middle of the lineup, Atlanta is the stronger overall club and will win the series finale on Sunday

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Over/Under Pick

• Over

The play is Over with Painter carrying a 5.71 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 19 home runs allowed through 110.1 innings. Atlanta has enough power to take advantage, with 185 home runs as a team and Olson already at 38. Philadelphia also has several hitters capable of answering, led by Schwarber’s 44 home runs and Harper’s .387 on-base percentage. Holmes has walked 57 batters, which could create scoring chances for Philadelphia. After Friday’s 6-5 result, another game with plenty of scoring is expected Sunday.