Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday April 20 2026
Use Code WWWC Wrigley Field sets the stage for a chilly spring showdown on Monday night as the Philadelphia Phillies travel to the north side of Chicago to take on the Cubs. With temperatures expected to stay below 50 degrees at first pitch and two veteran starters on the mound who have historically owned the opposing lineups, this one shapes up as a classic pitcher's duel. Bettors searching for more MLB picks will want to pay close attention to how the wind, the weather, and the travel spot shape this matchup.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs -112
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 4, Phillies 2
Odds and Line Movement
The market has drifted back and forth on this matchup, but sharp action and public money have been fairly aligned on the total. Here is a full look at how the numbers have moved from open to current.
Opening Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -115 | 8 (-108) |
| Chicago Cubs | -105 | 8 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -108 | 7½ (-115) Over |
| Chicago Cubs | -112 | 7½ (-105) Under |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | Philadelphia | Chicago Cubs | Public (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/19 | 10:16:51 PM | -115 | -105 | PHI 67%, CHC 66% |
| 04/20 | 08:16:13 AM | -112 | -108 | CHC 67%, CHC 80% |
| 04/20 | 09:09:48 AM | -108 | -112 | CHC 65%, CHC 77% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/19 | 10:16:51 PM | 8 (-108) | 8 (-112) | — |
| 04/20 | 12:38:50 AM | — | — | — |
| 04/20 | 12:38:51 AM | 7½ (-118) | 7½ (-102) | — |
| 04/20 | 01:59:52 AM | 7½ (-116) | 7½ (-104) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/20 | 03:20:02 AM | 7½ (-117) | 7½ (-103) | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 04/20 | 07:41:01 AM | 7½ (-114) | 7½ (-106) | OV 94%, OV 50% |
| 04/20 | 08:52:08 AM | 7½ (-115) | 7½ (-105) | OV 99%, OV 50% |
Phillies vs Cubs Key Matchups and Handicap
Winds aren't going to be much of a factor at Wrigley tonight, but it's going to be a chilly one. Game time temperatures aren't expected to get above 50 degrees tonight on Chicago's north side, which will make Wrigley play like a big ballpark. The Phillies got swept by the Braves over the weekend, but anyone that watched that series knows Philadelphia's pitching staff was generally not the problem.
Atlanta generated three runs on ten hits with an expected batting average of .194 on Saturday. All three runs were unearned as the Phillies' defense did a poor job of supporting Cristopher Sánchez. Philadelphia enters Monday 28th in defensive runs saved and 24th in outs above average. That can be fixed, and Monday's trek to Chicago is a fine place to start.
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Both starting pitchers have strong numbers against the opposing lineups. Chicago's current roster is only hitting .217 in 224 plate appearances against Philadelphia's Aaron Nola with a 25.4-percent strikeout rate and a .279 weighted on-base average. Ian Happ is only 2-for-21 against Nola with eight strikeouts. Alex Bregman is 2-for-14. Seiya Suzuki is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts.
The same is true for Chicago's Colin Rea, whom the Phillies are only hitting .236 against with a very low 2.7-percent walk rate. Bryce Harper is 0-for-14 against Rea, while Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are each 1-for-14 against him. The Cubs' bullpen did a fantastic job against the Mets on Sunday, holding New York scoreless over the final 4.1 innings in yesterday's come-from-behind win.
PHI and CHC Betting Trends
- One of the strongest MLB trends in recent years is to fade a road team coming off Sunday night baseball.
- Teams that travel off Sunday night baseball have historically scored about a run below their season-long average.
- The Phillies' offense is currently ice-cold heading into this matchup.
- Chicago's roster is only hitting .217 in 224 plate appearances against Aaron Nola with a 25.4-percent strikeout rate.
- Philadelphia is only hitting .236 against Colin Rea with a 2.7-percent walk rate.
PHI and CHC Key Injuries and Notes
- Philadelphia enters Monday ranked 28th in defensive runs saved and 24th in outs above average.
- The Phillies were just swept by the Atlanta Braves over the weekend.
- Cristopher Sánchez was let down by Philadelphia's defense on Saturday, with all three Atlanta runs coming unearned.
- The Cubs' bullpen held the Mets scoreless over the final 4.1 innings in Sunday night's come-from-behind win.
- Ian Happ is 2-for-21 with eight strikeouts against Aaron Nola.
- Bryce Harper is 0-for-14 against Colin Rea.
Phillies vs Cubs Moneyline and Total Picks
- Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -112
- Total: Under 7.5 Runs
The cold weather turning Wrigley into a pitcher's park, two starters with strong track records against the opposing lineups, and a Philadelphia lineup coming off Sunday night baseball all point toward a low-scoring affair. The Cubs' bullpen showed its strength on Sunday, and backing them at home in a situation that historically favors the host team is the play.
Final Score Prediction
- Chicago Cubs 4, Philadelphia Phillies 2
Expect a tight, low-scoring game where pitching and defense dictate the outcome. The Cubs grind out just enough offense at home to cover and keep this one under the total.
How to Bet Phillies vs Cubs
This Phillies vs Cubs matchup is the kind of low-total, pitching-driven spot where shopping for the best number really matters. A half-run move on the total or a few cents of juice can be the difference between a winning and losing ticket, so make sure you're lined up with the right books before first pitch.
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