Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Kansas City Royals on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Philadelphia is 49-39 and is second in the NL East, while Kansas City is 35-53 and is last in the AL Central. The Phillies split their previous five games before opening this series, while the Royals enter on a three-game losing streak after being swept by Tampa Bay. Philadelphia continues to chase Atlanta in the division race, while Kansas City looks to end its recent slide at home. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.
Philadelphia Phillies Looking to Keep Pace in the NL East
Philadelphia has relied heavily on its power this season, batting .237 with 394 runs, 702 hits, 117 home runs, a .303 on-base percentage, and a .403 slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber leads the club with 30 home runs and 55 RBI, Bryce Harper has added 20 home runs and a team-high 57 RBI while posting a .374 on-base percentage, and Brandon Marsh is batting .315 with 97 hits. Trea Turner has scored 59 runs with 16 stolen bases, while Bryson Stott has added 16 stolen bases as the Phillies continue to find production throughout the lineup.
Philadelphia has also received dependable work from its pitching staff, ranking 15th in Major League Baseball with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Phillies pitchers have held opponents to a .254 batting average while recording 824 strikeouts and allowing 98 home runs. That combination has helped Philadelphia remain firmly in the National League playoff race despite some inconsistent offensive stretches.
Injuries: Brad Keller (15-Day IL), Johan Rojas (60-Day IL), Adolis Garcia (60-Day IL).
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Kansas City Royals Looking to Snap Their Losing Streak
Kansas City has produced a .242 team batting average with 363 runs, 714 hits, 87 home runs, a .313 on-base percentage, and a .390 slugging percentage. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to lead the offense with a .290 batting average, 93 hits, 12 home runs, and 29 stolen bases. Jac Caglianone has supplied 14 home runs, Carter Jensen leads the club with 47 RBI, and Maikel Garcia is batting .261. The Royals have struggled to score consistently during their three-game losing streak, producing only six runs over that stretch.
Kansas City's pitching staff has encountered problems throughout the season, ranking 28th in MLB with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Royals pitchers have allowed opponents to bat .261 while surrendering 110 home runs and issuing 333 walks. Those numbers have made it difficult for Kansas City to slow opposing offenses and have played a major role in the club falling to the bottom of the AL Central standings.
Injuries: Salvador Perez (Day-To-Day), Nick Mears (15-Day IL), Maikel Garcia (10-Day IL), Carlos Estévez (60-Day IL), Kyle Isbel (10-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
Philadelphia Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nola is 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP across 85.0 innings this season. He has allowed 98 hits while striking out 87 batters and walking 29. Nola has struggled to limit hard contact but still possesses the experience to work through difficult lineups.
Kansas City Royals – Luinder Avila
Avila is 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP over 46.2 innings. He has surrendered 48 hits while recording 43 strikeouts and issuing 30 walks. Avila will need better command against a Philadelphia lineup that features several dangerous power hitters.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals Game Pick
- Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia has the advantage with the stronger lineup and the more reliable pitching staff. Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh have consistently produced offense, while the Phillies have significantly outperformed Kansas City on the mound throughout the season. Although Nola has endured a difficult year, Avila has also struggled and enters with a higher WHIP and control issues. Philadelphia has more proven hitters capable of taking advantage of those opportunities, making the Phillies the play.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals Over/Under Pick
- Over
This matchup features two starting pitchers carrying ERAs above 5.00, creating favorable conditions for offense. Philadelphia has hit 117 home runs this season, while Kansas City's pitching staff ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA and WHIP. The Royals have enough offensive talent with Witt Jr., Caglianone, and Jensen to contribute against Nola, who has allowed 98 hits in 85 innings. With both starters entering in inconsistent form, this matchup has the potential to produce enough scoring to cash the total over.
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