Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 5, 2025
The Philadelphia Phillies (80-59, 1st NL East) are in South Florida on Friday to open a three-game series against National League East rival Miami Marlins (65-75, 3rd NL East). Philadelphia lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 on Wednesday and has lost two of the last three, but holds a 5.5-game lead at the top of the NL East. Miami lost to the Washington Nationals 10-5 on Wednesday and was swept in that three-game series. Miami trails Philadelphia by 15.5 games in the NL East and is 10 games behind the final NL wildcard with just 22 games remaining on its schedule. Philadelphia will play without three pitchers and first baseman Carson Taylor. Miami will play without 11 pitchers as well as position players Kyle Stowers, Graham Pauley, Dane Weathers, Griffin Conine, and Derek Hill. Make sure to read this in-depth Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins prediction. Chasing wins? Get the edge with our MLB picks for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins prediction right now.
This article was written before Philadelphia played on Thursday
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Philadelphia is getting it done at the plate and on the mound
The Philadelphia Phillies are in the top 10 of four hitting categories. Philadelphia is third in batting average at .258, sixth in on-base percentage at .328, 9th in slugging percentage at .424, and 10th in runs scored. Kyle Schwarber has clobbered 49 home runs and knocked in 119 runs, which leads Philadelphia in both categories. Bryce Harper has 23 home runs, which is second, and Trea Turner’s 67 RBI are second. Philadelphia has hit 228 doubles, 21 triples, and 172 home runs for 421 extra base hits in 139 games.
Philadelphia's in the top 10 of three pitching categories, while 17th in another. The Phillies are first in Quality Starts with 74, 17th in ERA at 3.85, 10th in WHIP at 1.24, and 17th in batting average against at .245. Jesus Luzardo has 12 wins to lead the Phillies. Zack Wheeler (IL) leads the Phillies in strikeouts with 195. Christopher Sanchez, who will start on the mound Friday for the Phillies, leads the team in ERA for starters with 2.66. The left-hander is 11-5 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 181 strikeouts
Miami is average at the plate but well below average on the mound
The Miami Marlins are 13th in batting average at .250, 18th in runs scored with 606, 19th in on-base percentage at .314, and 21st in slugging percentage at .392. Miami's most productive hitter, Kyle Stowers, who leads the Marlins in batting average (.288), home runs (25), RBI (73), and on-base percentage (.369), is out injured. Agustin Ramirez's 19 home runs are second, and Otto Lopez’s 66 RBI are second. Miami has hit 232 doubles, 26 triples, and 132 home runs for 390 extra-base hits in 140 games
Miami has struggled all season on the mound. The Marlins are 20th or worse in four pitching categories. Miami is 20th in WHIP (1.31), 22nd in batting average against (.249), and 27th in ERA (4.70). Sandy Alcantara has 8 wins to lead Miami, and Edward Cabrera has a team-best 140 strikeouts. At the time this article was written, Miami had not yet released the name of a starting pitcher for Friday's opening game of its series versus Philadelphia.
Phillies vs. Marlins Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,778.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,716.00 |
| 3 |  David Hess | +1,326.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,323.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,071.00 |
Spread Pick for Phillies vs. Marlins
- Philadelphia (5 units)
Miami has lost three straight after being swept by Washington in a three-game series earlier this week. The Marlins are playing without their most productive hitter, Kyle Stowers, who leads the team in several different hitting categories, including home runs and RBI. The Marlins have struggled on the mound this season. Miami is 27th in ERA, and cannot make up for that at the plate as the Marlins are only 18th in runs scored while 21st in slugging percentage. In contrast, Philadelphia has scored the 10th most runs, has the 9th best slugging percentage, and has the third best team batting average. Philly gets it done on the mound as well, with the highest number of Quality Starts, the 7th best ERA, and the 10th best WHIP. Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez allowed seven hits and one run in seven innings when Philadelphia defeated Atlanta 3-2 last Saturday, but did not take part in the decision. Sanchez faced Miami on June 19th when the Phillies won 2-1. The left-hander held the Marlins to five hits and one run in eight strong innings.
Over/Under pick for Phillies vs. Marlins
- Under (4 units)
The over/under is 4-3 this season between these two rivals. However, the Phillies are 59-71-9 over/under this season, and three of the most recent four games between the two this season have had the total finish under. Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez was on the mound when Philadelphia beat Miami 3-1 in June. The left-hander has the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 2.66.
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