Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Picks - September 4, 2025
On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers (85-54) are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies (80-58) in the finale of a three game series. Check out our Brewers vs Phillies prediction for Thursday.
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Could this be their year?
The Phillies are a team that has momentum and swagger, and will be led by starting pitcher Ranger Suárez on Thursday. The 30-year-old lefty is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA on the season, with 124 strikeouts in 131 innings this season.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks third in batting average (.258), sixth in OPS (.751), and tenth in runs per game (4.78), this lineup can manufacture runs and clear the fence, with Kyle Schwarber’s 49 homers setting the tone.
Defensively, the Phils boast a top-10 ERA (3.83) and a league-best 74 quality starts, suggesting they rarely crack under pressure. With +600 odds for a World Series title (second best at DraftKings), there’s real belief this team is built for October. Watch for standout moments from Trea Turner, who’s hitting .301, and ace Cristopher Sanchez (2.66 ERA) anchoring a rotation that’s deep and experienced.
Best record in baseball
The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball, and a six game lead in the NL Central. The offense is second-best in runs per game (5.12), fueled by elite base-stealing (142 stolen bags, 2nd in MLB) and consistent at-bats from leaders like Christian Yelich (27 HR, .814 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (.280 AVG, 18 HR, 69 RBI)
The Brewers’ defense is just as sharp posting a 3.65 ERA (2nd in MLB) backed by sharp relief arms. Starting on Thursday will be Freddy Peralta (16-5, 2.58 ERA).
Milwaukee's World Series odds sit at +850 (fourth-best), and they've been excellent at protecting American Family Field, where they are 46-25 this season.
Take: Milwaukee Brewers -130
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| 5 |  Chip Chirimbes | +533.00 |
Ranger Suárez is having an outstanding season, but I expect him to struggle in this matchup. Active Brewers hitters are batting .364 (20-for-55) against him lifetime. That group includes Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Joey Ortiz, all of whom are hitting at least .400 against Suárez.
Milwaukee has been the most profitable team in MLB, and Freddy Peralta has been dominant at home, going 8-1 with a 1.83 ERA. Unlike Suárez, Peralta owns a solid track record against Thursday’s opponent, as active Phillies hitters are batting just .226 (26-for-115) against him. Take Milwaukee.
Total Pick: Over 7.5
Even with a strong starting pitching matchup, these are two of the best offenses in baseball. On Monday, Philadelphia won 10-8, while Milwaukee bounced back with a 6-3 win Tuesday. Given Suárez’s past struggles against this Brewers lineup and the Phillies hitting eight home runs in 115 career at-bats against Peralta, this game projects to go over the low total.
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