Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday June 26 2026
Use Code WWWC The Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game NL East series against the New York Mets at Citi Field on Friday night, with Zack Wheeler facing rookie left-hander Zach Thornton.
Philadelphia arrives after three consecutive comeback victories, while New York enters on a six-game losing streak with a new interim manager. This preview examines the latest odds, pitching matchup, game predictions, and top MLB player props for Friday’s Phillies vs Mets matchup.
Best Available Odds for Phillies vs Mets
- Best Moneyline Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -156 (FanDuel), New York Mets +135 (BetMGM)
- Best Spread Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+108, FanDuel), New York Mets +1.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (+100, FanDuel), Under 8.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Game Info
- Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM EDT
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, WPIX
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies enter Friday at 45-36 after completing a dramatic four-game series against the Washington Nationals. Philadelphia lost the opener before winning three consecutive games, with each victory featuring a late go-ahead home run.
The Phillies erased a five-run deficit Thursday and scored five times in the ninth inning to win 10-5. Bryce Harper broke a 5-5 tie with a two-run home run before J.T. Realmuto added an RBI double and Derek Hill completed the scoring with a two-run homer.
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Brandon Marsh began the comeback with a two-run home run in the sixth inning. The Phillies then tied the game during a three-run seventh that featured consecutive bases-loaded walks and another productive plate appearance from Alec Bohm.
Philadelphia’s recent success has been driven by an offense that continues creating pressure throughout the order. The Phillies have received major production from Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Marsh, Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Realmuto while also finding contributions from Hill, Edmundo Sosa, Justin Crawford, and the bench.
The club has gone 35-17 since Don Mattingly replaced Rob Thomson as manager. Philadelphia has moved into the top National League Wild Card position and sits within striking distance of Atlanta in the NL East.
Harper enters Friday in excellent form. He recorded two hits, three RBIs, two walks, and two runs Thursday, with his ninth-inning home run completing Philadelphia’s latest comeback.
The first baseman also dominated the Mets during last weekend’s series at Citizens Bank Park. Harper hit for the first cycle of his career during Saturday’s 15-3 victory before homering again Sunday.
Schwarber has supplied even greater home-run production. He hit three home runs during Saturday’s blowout and added another three-run homer against New York on Sunday.
The Phillies won two of three in that series and outscored the Mets 21-5 across the final two games. New York’s pitching staff struggled to navigate the top and middle of the Philadelphia order once runners began reaching base.
Turner gives the Phillies another major advantage against Thornton. The right-handed hitter receives the platoon edge against the rookie left-hander and should bat near the top of the lineup.
Turner has recorded multiple hits in three consecutive games. His ability to produce singles, extra-base hits, stolen bases, and aggressive baserunning makes him one of Philadelphia’s strongest individual matchups.
Bohm should also benefit from the left-handed starter. He can attack fastballs and cutters from the right side while hitting behind several of Philadelphia’s best on-base threats.
Marsh presents a more complicated matchup because he bats left-handed against Thornton. He has nevertheless been one of baseball’s most productive hitters this season, carrying a batting average above .320 and supplying increased power.
Marsh has homered four times across his last 10 games and hit two important home runs during the Washington series. He has also shown enough ability against left-handed pitching to remain in the lineup rather than functioning exclusively as a platoon player.
Philadelphia’s injury list includes Adolis GarcĂa, Johan Rojas, and Brad Keller. GarcĂa and Rojas are expected to miss the remainder of the season, while Keller remains unavailable with forearm tendinitis.
Those injuries have reduced Philadelphia’s outfield and bullpen depth, but the active roster has continued producing. Hill, Crawford, Sosa, and Gabriel Rincones Jr. have helped absorb the missing at-bats, while the bullpen still possesses several dependable late-inning options.
Jhoan Duran did not pitch Thursday after Philadelphia extended its ninth-inning lead. That gives the Phillies their preferred closer behind Wheeler if the game remains close.
The New York Mets enter at 34-47 after being swept in four games by the Chicago Cubs. Thursday’s 4-3 extra-inning loss extended New York’s losing streak to six games and left the club 13 games below .500.
The Mets committed more routine defensive errors during the series and repeatedly failed to convert scoring opportunities. They left a season-high 14 runners on base Thursday and allowed three unearned runs behind Freddy Peralta.
The defeat completed an especially damaging week. New York lost both games of Wednesday’s doubleheader, played 10 innings Thursday, traded David Peterson, moved Kodai Senga to the bullpen, and fired manager Carlos Mendoza on Friday morning.
Andy Green will serve as interim manager for the remainder of the season. The immediate change may produce a more aggressive lineup or bullpen approach, but it does not solve the club’s defensive, rotation, and injury problems.
New York is averaging approximately four runs per game and ranks near the bottom of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and production against right-handed pitching.
The Mets carry a team OPS around .670 against right-handers. That creates an especially difficult assignment against Wheeler, who has combined elite command with one of baseball’s strongest chase rates.
Juan Soto remains the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. He returned Thursday after missing Wednesday’s doubleheader with lower-back tightness and went 1-for-3 with two walks as the designated hitter.
Soto enters batting approximately .299 with a .399 on-base percentage, .567 slugging percentage, and 17 home runs. His patience and left-handed power give New York its clearest path to damage against Wheeler.
The direct matchup is still difficult. Wheeler can attack Soto with velocity before expanding the zone with his breaking and off-speed pitches.
Francisco Lindor has also returned after missing approximately two months with a calf strain. Lindor played during the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader and is expected to be gradually reintroduced rather than immediately returning to an unrestricted everyday workload.
His return improves the infield defense and gives New York another established switch hitter. The lengthy absence may make it difficult for Lindor to immediately handle an ace performing at Wheeler’s current level.
Marcus Semien has moved to the 10-day injured list with a hip flexor strain. Ronny Mauricio was recalled and recorded a double Thursday, but he also committed an error that contributed to New York’s latest loss.
Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco remain unavailable. Those injuries have placed greater responsibility on Soto, Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Jared Young, Carson Benge, and the club’s younger players.
Alvarez has become one of the few recent offensive positives. He hit three home runs during the Cubs series and has improved substantially since returning from the injured list earlier in June.
The catcher enters with eight home runs and a slugging percentage above .430. He can punish a Wheeler mistake, but he must first handle a pitcher who rarely falls into predictable hitter’s counts.
The Mets bullpen enters in a difficult position. New York played a doubleheader Wednesday and 10 innings Thursday, while Luke Weaver and several other important relievers were required during the losing streak.
Thornton has not demonstrated the workload necessary to pitch deep into a major-league game. Another four- or five-inning start would force the Mets to cover at least 12 outs with a bullpen that has worked extensively throughout the week.
Pitching Matchup
The Philadelphia Phillies will start right-hander Zack Wheeler, who enters at 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts across 68.1 innings.
Wheeler has been outstanding since returning from thoracic outlet surgery in late April. He has allowed only 42 hits and 18 walks while completing at least six innings in nine of his 11 starts.
His latest appearance came against the Mets on June 21. Wheeler allowed two runs on four hits across 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking three in Philadelphia’s 6-2 victory.
Wheeler fell one out short of a quality start because his command weakened during the sixth inning. The overall performance remained strong, particularly against a lineup he will face again only five days later.
He owns a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across four June starts. Opponents have batted approximately .165 during that stretch, while Wheeler has continued producing strikeouts without allowing excessive walks or home runs.
Wheeler ranks among the league leaders in expected ERA, expected batting average, chase rate, and overall pitching value. His four-seam fastball continues generating difficult contact, while his secondary pitches allow him to finish hitters once he moves ahead.
The Mets have struggled against right-handed pitching and enter with several hitters either injured or recently returned. Wheeler can challenge the weaker portions of the lineup rather than pitching around every hitter behind Soto.
New York’s strongest argument comes from familiarity. Soto, Lindor, Bichette, Alvarez, and the other regulars have seen Wheeler recently, potentially allowing them to adjust to his pitch sequencing.
The short turnaround can work both ways. Wheeler already demonstrated that his current arsenal can control this lineup, and the Mets must now solve him while carrying one of baseball’s weakest offensive profiles against right-handers.
The New York Mets will start left-hander Zach Thornton, who is being recalled for his second major-league appearance and start.
Thornton owns an 8.31 ERA after allowing four earned runs across 4.1 innings against Washington on May 20. He surrendered one home run, walked two, and struck out three.
The rookie relied heavily on his cutter during that appearance, throwing it on approximately half of his pitches. His fastball sat below 92 mph, forcing him to depend on location, movement, and changing the hitter’s timing.
Thornton has made seven Triple-A appearances this season, including six starts. He carries an ERA around 4.80 with 29 strikeouts and 14 walks across 31 innings for Syracuse.
His command creates the largest concern against Philadelphia. The Phillies have shown exceptional patience throughout their recent comeback streak and repeatedly punished Washington’s bullpen after receiving walks.
Thornton cannot afford to place Harper, Schwarber, Turner, or Bohm on base without forcing them to earn their way aboard. Walks ahead of Philadelphia’s power hitters could quickly create a multi-run inning.
The left-handed matchup gives Thornton a theoretical advantage against Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, and Stott. Philadelphia can counter through Turner, Bohm, Realmuto, Sosa, and its available right-handed depth.
Thornton is unlikely to receive an unrestricted workload. Even an effective performance may end after approximately five innings because he has not completed a major-league start since May.
That places significant pressure on the Mets bullpen. New York needs Thornton to record efficient outs and avoid forcing its relief pitchers into another extended appearance after a doubleheader and extra-inning game.
Game Thesis: I expect Philadelphia to control this game behind a substantial starting-pitching advantage. Wheeler owns a 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while Thornton is making his second major-league start after posting an 8.31 ERA in his debut. The Mets are on a six-game losing streak, have struggled defensively, and enter with a heavily used bullpen. Philadelphia should create enough offense against Thornton and the relievers behind him to win by multiple runs, while Wheeler keeps New York from contributing enough to force a high-scoring game. The Phillies moneyline is the safest selection, the run line provides better plus-money value, and Under 8.5 fits a projected 5-2 final.
Best Bet - Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-156)
The Philadelphia Phillies are the strongest moneyline selection because they own the clear advantage in starting pitching, recent form, offensive depth, defense, and bullpen availability.
Wheeler enters at 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Thornton has made only one major-league appearance and allowed four earned runs across 4.1 innings.
Philadelphia has won seven of its last 10 games and three straight, while New York has lost six consecutive games. The Phillies have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to create late scoring even when their starting lineup struggles early.
The Mets have not shown the same resilience. Their defense committed repeated errors during the Cubs series, and the offense left 14 runners on base during Thursday’s extra-inning loss.
Philadelphia also dominated the final two games of last weekend’s series. The Phillies scored 21 runs across those victories, with Harper and Schwarber producing historic individual performances.
The price is significant, but the matchup supports Philadelphia carrying an implied probability above 60 percent. Wheeler can provide six or seven controlled innings before turning the game over to a bullpen with Duran available.
Thornton is unlikely to match that length. New York may need four or more relief innings from a bullpen that has worked extensively throughout the week.
A projected 5-2 Philadelphia victory supports the Phillies moneyline.
Spread Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+108)
Philadelphia -1.5 offers the better return for bettors expecting the starting-pitching mismatch to translate into a multi-run victory.
Wheeler has allowed two or fewer earned runs in most of his starts and recently limited the Mets to two runs. A similar performance would force New York to keep Philadelphia below four runs to cover the opposite side of the run line.
That becomes difficult with Thornton starting. The rookie allowed four earned runs during his first major-league appearance and carries a Triple-A walk rate that can create problems against Philadelphia’s patient lineup.
The Phillies can create separation through the top of the order or against the Mets bullpen. Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Bohm, Marsh, and Realmuto all provide extra-base potential, while the lower order has contributed throughout the recent winning streak.
New York’s defensive problems add another path to a multi-run margin. The Mets committed six errors during one game of Wednesday’s doubleheader and made more routine mistakes Thursday.
The primary concern is Philadelphia’s tendency to fall behind early. The Phillies required late rallies in three consecutive games against Washington, and Thornton may benefit from Philadelphia seeing his cutter-heavy approach for the first time.
Wheeler reduces the amount of offense required. Scores such as 4-2, 5-2, or 6-3 support the Phillies run line at plus money.
Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
Under 8.5 is preferable to the original Under 8 because the additional half-run removes the possibility of a push at eight.
Wheeler supplies the strongest reason to back a lower-scoring result. He owns a 2.11 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and elite expected-contact numbers, while New York ranks near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching.
The Mets scored only five combined runs during the final two games of last weekend’s series in Philadelphia. Wheeler allowed two of those runs while preventing New York from building a sustained rally.
New York’s injuries and recent returns create additional uncertainty. Semien is out, Robert and Polanco remain unavailable, Lindor has just returned from a lengthy absence, and Soto recently dealt with back tightness.
Philadelphia can still threaten the total by itself. The Phillies scored 38 runs during the final three games in Washington and recently produced 15 runs against the Mets.
Thornton’s lack of experience and the Mets bullpen workload create a realistic path to five or six Philadelphia runs.
The Under remains viable if Wheeler holds New York to two runs or fewer. A 5-2 or 5-3 result stays below 8.5, while a 6-2 result also cashes the wager.
Warm conditions at Citi Field provide some support for offense, but Wheeler’s command and New York’s weak right-handed pitching splits carry greater weight.
Top Player Prop Picks for Phillies vs Mets
Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160): Wheeler has completed at least six innings in nine of his 11 starts, averaging more than six innings per appearance. He missed this line by one out against the Mets on June 21 after walking three hitters and encountering trouble during the sixth inning. New York ranks near the bottom of baseball in several offensive categories against right-handed pitching, giving Wheeler a strong opportunity to work efficiently. Philadelphia also benefits from extending him through six innings after using multiple relievers during Thursday’s comeback. Wheeler needs to complete the sixth to cash the Over, and his season-long workload makes that the most likely result.
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, BetMGM): Turner receives the platoon advantage against Thornton and enters with multiple hits in three consecutive games. He should bat near the top of the Philadelphia lineup, creating the potential for five plate appearances if the Phillies force Thornton into an early exit. Turner can clear this line with one extra-base hit or two singles, and his speed can occasionally turn routine outfield contact into an additional base. Thornton’s modest velocity and heavy cutter usage create a favourable matchup for Turner’s quick right-handed swing, while the Mets bullpen should provide additional opportunities later in the game.
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits (-200): Marsh enters batting above .320 and has become one of Philadelphia’s most consistent contact hitters. He homered Thursday to begin the comeback against Washington and has recorded four home runs over his last 10 games. The left-on-left matchup against Thornton is less favourable than the season-long numbers suggest, but the rookie has limited major-league experience and may not pitch beyond the fifth inning. Marsh should receive at least one later plate appearance against a right-handed reliever, and his ability to use the entire field gives him multiple paths to one hit. The price is heavy, but his batting average, current form, and likely four plate appearances support the Over.
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