Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday June 23 2026
Use Code WWWC Philadelphia visits Washington with updated picks, pitching analysis, and top MLB player props for Tuesday night.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Philadelphia Phillies (-173) / Washington Nationals (+143)
Best Spread Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-104) / Washington Nationals +1.5 (-115)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-118) / Under 8.5 (-102)
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Game Info
Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Time: 6:45 PM EDT
Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Nationals.TV
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies enter Tuesday at 42-36 and in second place in the NL East. Philadelphia has gone 19-17 on the road and trails first-place Atlanta by 6.5 games.
The Phillies lost Monday's series opener 4-1 after Washington starter Foster Griffin held them to one run on four hits across 7.1 innings. Griffin recorded nine strikeouts without issuing a walk.
Brandon Marsh produced Philadelphia's only run with a seventh-inning solo home run. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper were held quiet after combining for one of the strongest offensive weekends of the season against the New York Mets.
Schwarber hit four home runs over Saturday and Sunday, including three during Philadelphia's 15-3 victory Saturday. He leads the Phillies with 29 home runs and 52 RBIs.
Harper hit for the cycle Saturday before homering again Sunday. He went 3-for-4 in the series finale and raised his batting average from .248 to .266 during the two-game stretch.
Philadelphia outscored New York 21-5 during the final two games of the series before being stopped by Griffin. The lineup remains capable of producing large totals through Schwarber, Harper, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto, and Marsh.
The full-season offensive numbers have been inconsistent. Philadelphia is batting approximately .231 with a .298 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage while averaging 4.2 runs per game.
The road splits have been particularly poor. The Phillies are batting near .207 away from home with an on-base percentage below .275, making it difficult to treat the offense as completely dependable.
The matchup is more favourable Tuesday because Washington will not have Griffin working deep into the game. The Nationals plan to open with left-handed reliever PJ Poulin before turning to right-hander Zack Littell for the bulk innings.
That arrangement is intended to give Poulin the first opportunity against Turner, Schwarber, and Harper. Littell should then enter after the top of Philadelphia's order has already received one plate appearance.
The Phillies remain without outfielder Adolis García, who is out for the season with a latissimus dorsi tear. Johan Rojas is also unavailable following elbow surgery, while reliever Brad Keller is sidelined by forearm tendinitis.
The Washington Nationals enter at 41-38 and have moved within one game of Philadelphia in the NL East standings. Washington is 17-22 at Nationals Park despite possessing one of baseball's more productive offenses.
The Nationals have scored 420 runs while batting approximately .248 with a .321 on-base percentage and .423 slugging percentage. They average 5.3 runs per game and have hit 103 home runs.
Washington produced 12 hits during Monday's victory. James Wood, Dylan Crews, Keibert Ruiz, and Nasim Nuñez each collected two hits.
Wood doubled, singled, walked, and scored twice. He enters Tuesday batting .273 with 20 home runs, 49 RBIs, and an OPS above .900.
Crews drove in Wood during the first inning and later added a double. The outfielder has produced five home runs in his first 28 games of the season and has become an important right-handed presence in the Washington lineup.
Ruiz also doubled and singled Monday. He has recorded at least one hit in 21 of his last 25 games and remains one of the Nationals' strongest contact hitters.
CJ Abrams had his three-game home-run streak ended in the opener. He still leads Washington with 17 home runs and 57 RBIs while batting approximately .286.
Washington's lineup can pressure both starting pitchers and bullpens. Wood, Abrams, Crews, Ruiz, Curtis Mead, Luis García Jr., Daylen Lile, and Nuñez give the Nationals more offensive depth than their position in the standings might suggest.
The Nationals remain without several pitchers. Jake Irvin is on the injured list, while Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, Max Kranick, and Ken Waldichuk are dealing with longer-term injuries.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Phillies will start left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who enters at 6-4 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts across 85.2 innings.
Luzardo's overall ERA is inflated by several difficult home appearances early in the season. He has been dramatically more effective on the road, going 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA across seven away starts.
The left-hander has allowed only seven earned runs and one home run across 40.2 road innings. Opponents have produced a 1.23 WHIP against him away from Citizens Bank Park.
Luzardo is also entering in strong recent form. He is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA across his last seven starts, recording 40 strikeouts and 15 walks over 42 innings.
Philadelphia has won six of those seven appearances. Luzardo has allowed two runs or fewer in six of the seven games, providing the Phillies with consistent opportunities to establish a lead.
He completed seven innings against Miami during his latest start. Luzardo allowed two earned runs on five hits, struck out nine, and walked two in an 8-2 victory.
The start followed an eight-strikeout performance against Toronto. Luzardo has now recorded 17 strikeouts across his last 12.2 innings.
Washington's right-handed hitters create the primary challenge. Crews, Ruiz, Mead, and Jacob Young should receive the platoon advantage, while the left-handed Wood, Abrams, García, and Lile face a less favourable matchup.
Ruiz has gone 6-for-14 with a home run against Luzardo. Wood is 3-for-6, although that remains an extremely small sample against a pitcher with a significant platoon split.
Abrams has struggled in the matchup, going 1-for-9 with five strikeouts. His current form gives him a chance to improve those numbers, but Luzardo has repeatedly neutralized him through their first several meetings.
Luzardo is 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in nine career starts against Washington. His current road form is more encouraging than the career record, but the Nationals' improved lineup prevents this from being an automatic shutdown matchup.
Washington is expected to open with left-hander PJ Poulin. He enters with a 3-0 record, 3.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts across 29.1 innings.
Poulin has experience in the opening role and should be responsible for the first inning. Washington will use him to create left-on-left matchups against Schwarber and Harper before shifting to Littell.
The strategy creates an immediate advantage against two of Philadelphia's strongest power hitters. Turner receives the platoon advantage as a right-handed hitter and should have an opportunity to reach base before Schwarber and Harper bat.
Poulin's season ERA is respectable, but he does not generate many strikeouts and has allowed significant traffic. His 1.43 WHIP gives Philadelphia an opportunity to create an early scoring chance even if he records only three outs.
Littell is expected to follow in bulk relief. He enters at 6-6 with a 5.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and only 41 strikeouts across 71 innings.
The right-hander has allowed 75 hits, 23 walks, and 20 home runs. His limited strikeout production makes it difficult to escape mistakes once opponents put runners on base.
Littell has been especially vulnerable at Nationals Park, where he owns an ERA above six. Left-handed hitters have accounted for 16 of the 20 home runs he has allowed and have produced an OPS above 1.000 against him.
That split creates a dangerous matchup after Poulin exits. Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh, and Justin Crawford can all bat from the left side against Littell.
Littell faced Philadelphia earlier this season and took the loss after allowing three earned runs on six hits across five innings. He did not miss enough bats to prevent the Phillies from creating repeated contact.
Turner is 3-for-6 against Littell. Schwarber is 1-for-3 with a home run and two walks, while Harper is 0-for-5 with two strikeouts in a small sample.
The opener may prevent Littell from facing Philadelphia's top three hitters three times. It does not eliminate the underlying matchup disadvantage once the Phillies begin receiving multiple plate appearances against him.
Game Thesis: Washington possesses the stronger season-long offense, but Philadelphia has the decisive pitching advantage. Luzardo has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and owns a 1.55 road ERA. Poulin can disrupt the top of the order for one inning, but Littell's home struggles, low strikeout rate, and extreme vulnerability against left-handed power create a clear path to a multi-run Philadelphia performance. The Phillies should even the series in a game that reaches or exceeds nine total runs.
Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-173)
Philadelphia is the preferred moneyline side because Luzardo is the most dependable pitcher in the matchup. He has pitched to a 2.57 ERA over his last seven starts and has been dominant away from home.
The Phillies have won six of Luzardo's last seven appearances. His ability to work six or seven innings reduces Philadelphia's exposure to its middle relievers and creates a direct path to the stronger late-game bullpen options.
Washington's offense deserves respect after collecting 12 hits Monday. The Nationals average more runs per game than Philadelphia and can challenge Luzardo through Ruiz, Crews, Mead, and the remaining right-handed hitters.
The difference is Washington's pitching arrangement. Poulin is unlikely to work more than one inning, while Littell carries a 5.45 ERA and has allowed 20 home runs in only 71 innings.
Philadelphia's best power hitters bat from the side that has caused Littell the most difficulty. Schwarber, Harper, Stott, and Marsh should receive multiple opportunities after Poulin completes the opening inning.
The price is significantly more expensive than the original -147 listing. That movement reduces the standalone value, but the underlying pitching matchup still makes Philadelphia the more likely winner.
⭐ Best Bet - Spread Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-104)
Philadelphia -1.5 is the strongest game wager. The run line avoids the expensive moneyline price and offers a nearly even-money return on the Phillies winning by at least two runs.
Littell owns a home ERA above six and has been one of baseball's most vulnerable pitchers against left-handed power. Sixteen of his 20 home runs allowed have come against left-handed hitters.
That weakness aligns directly with Philadelphia's lineup construction. Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh, and Crawford can all pressure Littell once Washington moves away from Poulin.
Littell also does not possess the strikeout rate required to consistently neutralize Philadelphia's greatest weakness. The Phillies have struck out frequently, but Littell averages only 2.7 strikeouts per appearance.
Philadelphia can therefore generate offense by putting the ball in play rather than waiting for walks or home runs. Turner and Bohm provide right-handed contact around the left-handed power hitters.
Luzardo provides enough run prevention to support a multi-run margin. He has allowed seven earned runs across 40.2 road innings and has given up only one road home run.
Washington's 50-28 run-line record creates legitimate risk. The Nationals have remained competitive throughout the season and possess enough offense to reduce a late Philadelphia lead.
The pitching disparity still supports the favourite. Scores such as 6-3, 7-4, or 6-2 provide Philadelphia with the required margin while reflecting Washington's offensive ability.
Total Pick: Over 8.5 (-118)
The Over 8.5 is preferable to the original Under recommendation. Luzardo's road numbers provide a strong case for Philadelphia run prevention, but Washington's pitching arrangement creates too much scoring risk on the other side.
Littell has allowed 20 home runs and carries a 5.45 ERA. His 1.38 WHIP and low strikeout rate give Philadelphia several paths to scoring four, five, or six runs.
The opener strategy may protect Littell from facing the top of the order three times, but it also requires Washington to coordinate at least two pitchers before reaching the later innings. Any early command problem from Poulin can create immediate traffic.
Washington has also been one of baseball's strongest Over teams. The Nationals have played 47 Overs against 29 Unders and have consistently combined productive offense with below-average run prevention.
The Nationals average 5.3 runs per game and should not be projected for another one-run performance simply because Luzardo is pitching well. Wood, Abrams, Crews, Ruiz, Mead, and García can create damage if Luzardo's command slips.
Philadelphia's bullpen is missing Keller and worked through several unconventional pitching assignments Monday. The Phillies should have their primary late-inning relievers available, but the unit has not been completely dominant.
The greatest Under argument is Philadelphia's road offense. The Phillies are batting near .207 away from home and have gone Under in 16 of their last 20 road games.
The matchup against Littell outweighs that season-long concern. His inability to retire left-handed hitters gives the Phillies a better offensive opportunity than their typical road matchup.
A final score around 6-3, 6-4, or 7-3 would clear the total while supporting the Philadelphia moneyline and run-line selections.
Top Player Prop Picks
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-108) Turner should receive the most favourable initial matchup among Philadelphia's top three hitters. The right-handed shortstop will face left-handed opener Poulin during the first inning.
Poulin owns a 1.43 WHIP and has recorded only 19 strikeouts across 29.1 innings. Turner should be able to place the ball in play rather than facing an overwhelming swing-and-miss pitcher.
Turner has also gone 3-for-6 against Littell. He should receive at least two additional plate appearances against the bulk pitcher after Poulin exits.
The top lineup position gives Turner four or five opportunities to clear the line. A double, triple, home run, or two singles would produce the required two total bases.
Turner also benefits from batting ahead of Schwarber and Harper. Washington may be reluctant to pitch around him when doing so immediately creates a runner for Philadelphia's strongest power hitters.
The near-even price provides better value than laying a heavy number on Turner to record one hit. His platoon advantage against the opener and previous success against Littell make the total-bases Over the strongest Philadelphia hitter prop.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) Schwarber enters with 29 home runs and remains one of baseball's most dangerous power hitters. He hit four home runs across Saturday and Sunday before being held without a hit Monday.
The first plate appearance against Poulin is the primary concern. Schwarber will not receive the platoon advantage against the left-handed opener and may face a difficult opening at-bat.
The matchup becomes substantially better once Littell enters. Left-handed hitters have produced 16 home runs and an OPS above 1.000 against the Washington right-hander.
Schwarber has already homered against Littell and has reached base three times in five career plate appearances against him. His patience also gives him opportunities to enter favourable counts.
One extra-base hit is enough to clear the line. Schwarber can also cash the prop through two singles, although his power gives him the clearest route.
The nearly even-money price is preferable to laying -220 on a basic hit prop. Schwarber's form and the matchup against Littell support another multi-base performance.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100) Harper enters after one of the strongest weekends of his career. He hit for the cycle Saturday, homered Sunday, and went 7-for-9 across the two victories over New York.
Like Schwarber, Harper must first deal with Poulin. The left-on-left matchup reduces his opening-inning advantage, but Poulin is expected to leave after facing the top portion of the order.
Harper should then receive multiple plate appearances against Littell. The Washington bulk pitcher has been punished by left-handed hitters throughout the season.
Harper is 0-for-5 against Littell, but that sample is too small to outweigh the broader platoon evidence. Littell has allowed 20 home runs and has struggled to consistently miss bats.
Harper can clear the market with one double, one triple, one home run, or two singles. His recent contact quality gives him several realistic paths.
The plus-money price is particularly attractive for a hitter who has produced six extra-base hits across his last three games. Harper's form, power, and matchup make the Over preferable to another expensive one-hit market.
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