Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the opening game of a three-game series on the diamond in Hotlanta to close the regular season as the Pittsburgh Pirates travel to face the Atlanta Braves Friday night, and we have you covered with our Pirates vs. Braves prediction. Pittsburgh missed a chance to sweep the Reds on the road as they fell 2-1 on Thursday afternoon. Atlanta missed a sweep of the Nationals as they were downed 4-3 at home in the finale on Wednesday. In the first series between the teams this season, the Pirates took two of three at home, May 9-11. Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks! Read more about this Pirates vs. Braves prediction!
Pittsburgh Trying To Finish Season Strong
Pittsburgh saw their four-game win streak snapped as they were dropped in the finale of their set with the Reds on the road Thursday afternoon. The Pirates entered Friday 69-90 and sat in the basement of the NL Central, 27 games behind Milwaukee for the top spot. They have been eliminated from contention in the NL playoff picture. On Thursday against the Reds, Pittsburgh finished with just three hits as no player had more than one in the contest. The Pirates were zero of two with runners in scoring position and left three men on base in the game. Braxton Ashcraft (4-4) took the loss as he allowed two runs on eight hits with one walk and five strikeouts over 4.1 innings of work.
Mitch Keller is on the bump for the Pirates as he makes his 32nd start of the year in this contest. He is 6-15 with a 4.22 ERA, a 1.239 WHIP, 46 walks, and 144 strikeouts over 172.2 innings of work on the season. Keller took the loss in his last start, which came at home against the Athletics on Friday night. He threw five innings, allowing four runs on four hits with one walk and four strikeouts in a game the Pirates eventually dropped 4-3. In his last three starts, Keller is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, two walk,s and 12 strikeouts over 16.2 innings of work. Keller makes his seventh career start against the Braves in this contest. He is 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA, a 2.012 WHIP, five walks and 25 strikeouts over 28.1 innings of work against them. Keller is 0-2 with a 13.15 ERA, a 2.538 WHIP, three walks and 12 strikeouts over 13 innings of work in three career starts at Truist Park.
Braves Hoping to Get Back in the Win Column
Atlanta missed a chance to sweep Washington at home and saw their 10-game win streak snapped in the process with Wednesday’s defeat. The Braves entered Friday 75-84 and stood fourth in the NL East, 18.5 games behind the Phillies for the top spot. They have been eliminated from contention in the National League playoff picture. Against Washington on Wednesday, Atlanta finished with six hits as no player had more than one. Marcell Ozuna (his 21st), Drake Baldwin (his 19th) and Eli White (his 10th) each went deep in a losing effort for the Braves. Bryce Elder (8-11) took the loss as he allowed three runs on six hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over seven innings of work.
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Joey Wentz makes his 39th appearance, 13th start, of the season overall and his 14th appearance, 13th start, with Atlanta here. He is 5-6 with a 5.46 ERA, a 1.521 WHIP, 41 walks, and 89 strikeouts over 94 innings of work on the year. Wentz didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came against the Tigers on the road Saturday. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on six hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Braves went on to win 6-5. In his last three starts, Wentz is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA, a 2.03 WHIP, four walks, and 14 strikeouts over 11.1 innings of work. Wentz makes his third career appearance, first start against the Pirates in this contest. He has no record with a 6.75 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, two walks, and five strikeouts over four innings of work against them. Wentz is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA, a 1.737 WHIP, nine walks and 19 strikeouts over 25.1 innings of work in seven career appearances, six starts, at Truist Park.
Pirates vs. Braves Pick
Moneyline Pick for Pirates vs. Braves
- Braves -152 (4 units)
Both teams are playing out the string here as they have long been eliminated from playoff contention. Each team comes in off a loss that snapped their respective win streaks entering this contest. With that said, Keller has struggled all season and has been brutal in his three career starts at Truist Park. Giving up 30 hits in 13 innings is concerning, even with Atlanta going nowhere here. Wentz has been up and down since coming to Atlanta but he’s facing a Pirates squad that struggles to put runs on the board. Seeing how Pittsburgh struggles to score, take the Braves at home in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Pirates vs. Braves
- Over 8.5 (4 units)
Pittsburgh has seen the under post a 91-62-6 mark on the year heading into Friday’s action. The Pirates are 30th in the majors with 3.58 runs per game and that number falls to 3.31 runs per game away from PNC Park. Pittsburgh has an average total of 7.59 runs per game but that number barely moves to 7.69 runs per game on the road. Atlanta entered Friday night having gone under the total in 75 of their 159 games, with 12 pushes, on the season. The Braves are 13th in the majors with 4.51 runs per game, a number that slides to 4.27 runs per game at home. Atlanta has an average total of 9.05 runs per game and that number drops slightly to nine runs per game at home this season. With both pitchers sputtering at the moment, take the over in this contest.
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